(109) more AQ bubble fun with raptor

[raptor517]

***** Hand History for Game 3032933033 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $100 Buy-in + $9 Entry Fee Trny:17396362 Level:8 Blinds(200/400) - Sunday, November 13, 23:45:08 EDT 2005
Table Table 67302 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: EDawwg ( $4620 )
Seat 6: Raptor_517 ( $2210 )
Seat 7: snowball101 ( $480 )
Seat 10: luc2day ( $2690 )
Trny:17396362 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Raptor_517 [ Qc Ah ]
snowball101 is all-In [480]
luc2day folds.
EDawwg is all-In [4420]
Raptor_517 ?

[Freudian]

I voted fold because I am a wuss. But I can see calling and going for 1st. If bigstack win you are 3rd, if you win you have a good shot at 1st.

[mlagoo]

i fold this in a flash, and (obviously) not because i don't think i have the best hand.

i remember a similar hand that kyro posted recently, that suggested calling in these situations might be correct?

looking forward to having some better players shed some light on this.

[PartySNGer]

The chip leader could be doing this with a low pair hand like 66, in which case you're not in good shape. If the shortstack had KT you would be in a bad situation.

[Shillx]

It is only a .4% mistake to call here if everyone will win 1/3 of the time (and it is 50/50 HU should you fold). AQ is just too good in this spot to not play I would think. You have to think that you have 40% equity here, no? That would certainly be enough to make this call.

Brad

[tewall]

I think this is a pretty fold. I wonder where to draw the line. Maybe QQ? Too conservative? What do others think?

I don't see why people are saying fold. This call seems to pretty clearly increase your chances of 3rd, and it probably increases your chances of 2nd and 1st also. That seems like a good idea to me.

Big stack's pushing range doesn't have us dominated.

Yes easy fold but was was the OUTCOME?

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see why people are saying fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're missing hte point. you're fairly likely to lose, getting nothing, whereas folding makes you fairly likely to not lose, and get something.

c

[microbet]

I'd say this is a fold and the other is a call, but I'm not so sure since that's what I Play G00t said.

Edit: Here's a contrarian thought on ICM adjustments.

HERO: 2000
villian1: 4000
villian2: 4000

BB 300 or 400

I feel a lot better here than ICM says against most opponents. This is contrary because it seems like many people feel that ICM undervalues the big stack. I don't feel as big an edge (over expectation) as a big stack ITM.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see why people are saying fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're missing hte point. you're fairly likely to lose, getting nothing, whereas folding makes you fairly likely to not lose, and get something.

c

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree that we are fairly likely to lose in this point. If we assume that everyone involved is a competant player, what are each villian's ranges?
I think shortie is pushing top 50% (hes going to be practically all in on the next hand, so if he has a better than average hand should put his chips in now, he won't push with less than this because he knows he has 0 fold equity)
Big Stack knows that the shortie has to push top 50%, and with the blinds in there as likely dead money, I think he will probably push around top 30%.
I'm not an an expert at ITM, and have don't know how to calculate an accurate win % vs these ranges, but my instict tells me this a call, but its very close. I would be interested in seeing what ICM says using those ranges, if a knowledgable person wants to test it out.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say this is a fold and the other is a call, but I'm not so sure since that's what I Play G00t said.

[/ QUOTE ]

I give the g00t advice!

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see why people are saying fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're missing hte point. you're fairly likely to lose, getting nothing, whereas folding makes you fairly likely to not lose, and get something.

c

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you're very likely to lose and get nothing. Your hand and the big stack's range probably have the shortie's range in pretty bad shape. And even if the shortie takes you out you can still beat the biggie to be in fine shape.

I understand the argument for folding, I just don't think you lose to both of them very often. I call, but I'm not 100% sure.

[bawcerelli]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say this is a fold and the other is a call, but I'm not so sure since that's what I Play G00t said.

[/ QUOTE ]

nh sir

[microbet]

I dunno, thing is Raptor knows what he's doing which means you can very often just reply to his posts that it's so close it doesn't matter, or maybe just that reads would make too much difference.

p.s. Agreeing with G00t has shattered my confidence. I'm doomed.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see why people are saying fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're missing hte point. you're fairly likely to lose, getting nothing, whereas folding makes you fairly likely to not lose, and get something.

c

[/ QUOTE ]

In order for us to get nothing here, shorty has to win and big stack has to beat us. How frequently does that happen? It's much less than 1/6, IMHO.

So Hero has to lose to both villains to bust out here. I think he's probably between 60-40 and 50-50 vs each individually (big stack can call any two profitbaly $EV-wise here if he assumes villain will fold). So Hero will lose here something like 16-25% of the time.

Pre-post, Hero has about 27% equity, so when he loses here he's burning 4.3-6.8% equity in the prize pool on that side of the ledger by calling. If we assume he always beats them both the rest of the time, his total equity increases to 38.1% a change of +11.1%. This happens 75-84% of the time under our assumption, so the net gain on this side of the ledger is 8.3-9.3%.

That looks like a call, but we're ignoring the significant cases where shorty triples up and hero beats big stack, as well as the cases where both hero and shorty go out. I'm really not sure how to assign percentages to those. I'd guess Hero actually beats them both closer to 40% of the time for a an EV gain of 4.4% which is no better than break-even with the times he loses to both, and since in both cases where the result is intermediate Hero is giving up equity, I think this is probably a fold. I'd love to see a more definitive math answer from someone with more experience, though.

In the heat of it, I'm folding this without much thought. I'd probably only call with a PP, preferably a big one, though I might go down to say JJ/TT/99.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes easy fold but was was the OUTCOME?

[/ QUOTE ]

i called here for various reasons. utg could have anything. edawwg is relatively solid from what i have seen, so he coulud be pushing a gigantic range trying to get it heads up even with 23 so he can keep the bubble going. thats what i would do in his spot.

anyways, i only have to beat one of them to stay alive or at least get third, so i threw my chips in there. results.. utg had KJ, and sb big stack had 33. not exactly a great situation, but 33 held up and i took third. im gonna go post on the other one now.. holla

[Irieguy]

I would never fold here. Ever.

But the poll says I suck.

Irieguy

[SumZero]

I like the top 50%, top 30% ranges. Using those:

So our CEV if big stack has top 30%, shorty has top 50% and we have AQo is $2694, while if we fold we have 1810 since we lost the BB. We are winning outright 42% of the time. Further, more than half the time we lose, so does the short stack. The short stack only wins 28.2% of the time. The big stack wins 29.8% of the time. More than half the 28.2% the short stack wins we beat the big stack.

So that is: 42% of the time we end up with 4900, big stack has 2410, and other has 2690. This is worth $380.59

And: 29.8% of the time the big stack wins outright. We take 3rd. That is worth $200.

And: 18.4% of the time the short stack wins main pot but we win side. big stack has 2410, other has 2690, short has 1440, we have 3460. That is worth $307.49.

And: 9.8% of the time short stack wins main and big stack wins side pot. That is worth $0.

So our total $EV of call is .42*380.59+.298*200+.184*307.49 which is $276.03.

Contrast if we fold:

55.5% of the time: the big stack wins and has 5500, 1810, 2690. That is worth $283.08.

44.5% of the time: the short stack wins and then its 4240, 1810, 1360, 2690. That is worth $215.08.

So the total $EV of fold is .555*238.08+.445*215.08 which is $227.85.

So this is clearly a call, and it isn't close.

So I'm with Raptor and Irieguy and the (ICM bubble enlightened?) minority on both AQo bubble hands.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]

So I'm with Raptor and Irieguy and the (ICM bubble enlightened?) minority on both AQo bubble hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I voted call on both, which I guess makes me an inconsistent bubble thinker at best /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[fnord_too]

My first instinct here is to call. The only little pang I have is that I don't like the possibility that the big stack has one of my aces killed, but I think that worry is nullified by the possibility that I have the short stack domintated.

[Roman]

instacall... I didnt know you were so damn weaktight raptor.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
It is only a .4% mistake to call here if everyone will win 1/3 of the time (and it is 50/50 HU should you fold). AQ is just too good in this spot to not play I would think. You have to think that you have 40% equity here, no? That would certainly be enough to make this call.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he has more than 40% equity here. I really like a call here, particularly the more you revere big stack, the better the call.

[Vee Quiva]

Is this logic correct? According to ICM if I fold and small stack wins I lose .0538 $EV. If I fold and Big Stack wins I only gain .0142 $EV.

So in theory it makes sense to call with any 2 because folding is - $EV?

Calling is too hard for my feeble math mind to calculate due to the side pot issues.

[Nicholasp27]

both folding and calling can be -ev

for instance, if u are bb and fold, u lost ev cause u lost the blind u posted, but calling with that 27o to 5 pushers isn't exactly +ev

calling may be more -ev than folding, which makes it -ev to call...calling may be less -ev than folding, which makes it +ev to call instead of fold, even tho u lose ev when calling

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
instacall... I didnt know you were so damn weaktight raptor.

[/ QUOTE ]

i welcome you to come play with me any time any day if you deem me weak tight. k tx. holla

[lacky]

wow, I'm really confused how almost half think they need to play this hand. This place is getting weird.

[lacky]

why would you play this hand when your not desperate, but pass the other when you are? I'm missing something.

[z32fanatic]

I would call for these reasons:
1. If the shorty wins then the next hand he has 1400 before posting and you only have 1800 before posting the SB. I would put your odds of moneying at ~60-65%.
2. I think the big stack pushes almost anything here because he should want to keep the bubble alive and steal from all of you so you are almost always ahead of him and possibly have him dominated.
3. You can help knock the shorty out.
4. If you win you will have 5000 and will be a large favorite to win the tourney.
5. The chances of you losing to the shorty and the shorty beating the big stack are not good. You are not likely to bubble here.

Thanks for this post, SumZero. It clearly helps me understand. I voted 'fold' thinking "let the BigStack take him out". With your post, I see why getting involved is safer than the possibility of ending up in last with bubble unpopped. Thanks a bunch.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
why would you play this hand when your not desperate, but pass the other when you are? I'm missing something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because here shorty is so desperate, and the big stack so loose that I love this chance to change the scenery.

In the other hand I would need to be awfully desperate, and awfully live to call a push from somebody that doesn't need chips.

Irieguy

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why would you play this hand when your not desperate, but pass the other when you are? I'm missing something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because here shorty is so desperate, and the big stack so loose that I love this chance to change the scenery.

In the other hand I would need to be awfully desperate, and awfully live to call a push from somebody that doesn't need chips.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I wish I was as succinct as you. I would have said the same thing with about 12 more sentences.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why would you play this hand when your not desperate, but pass the other when you are? I'm missing something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because here shorty is so desperate, and the big stack so loose that I love this chance to change the scenery.

In the other hand I would need to be awfully desperate, and awfully live to call a push from somebody that doesn't need chips.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm so glad I'm not going insane here (or at least I have company).

1) we're probably a favorite in this pot against their ranges
2) busting shorty is good, and we very much increase the chances of shorty getting busted

[Bigwig]

I call.

EDIT-- 60/40 in favor of folding, eh? I thought this was the G00T forum? Hee haw.

[Daliman]

I'd call this. Too many factors working in your favor, and i'd gather that loose raising ranges for both,(which they should be) in tools would back it up.

If I could figure out how to get the farging thing to have 2 people allin...... /images/graemlins/mad.gif

FWIW, I show just the call vs the SB any 2 is -1.7%, but that ain't close to right for this.

[The Don]

I call everytime here. Too lazy for a cost benefit analysis, from experience it seems like calling is the best move.

[lacky]

ok, I love calling anyway, so you've conviced me, I call in both hands

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call this. Too many factors working in your favor, and i'd gather that loose raising ranges for both,(which they should be) in tools would back it up.

If I could figure out how to get the farging thing to have 2 people allin...... /images/graemlins/mad.gif

FWIW, I show just the call vs the SB any 2 is -1.7%, but that ain't close to right for this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I tried rearranging the order so that shorty was the BB, and changed the blinds to 250/500 so that he was allin, to account for the 3 way, but I think if I keep trying to do this, SNGPT might blow up.

The best part is that I get a pop up saying that this is a patch he might fix sometime in the future. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[valenzuela]

I voted call.
There are 6 possible outcomes.( H-hero, B-big stack, S-short stack)
HBS
HSB
BSH
BHS
SBH
SHB

If hero wins , SS is eliminated and hero kick ass. That happens( not taking into account that our hand is AQ ) a third of the time.
If the big stack wins, we are pwned however nobody can dislike 91 dollars.
If short stack wins, we kick ass half of the time and get totally screwed the other half of the time.

Anyway even if u didnt get what I did above I will sum it up:
You only bust fourth once every 6 times( similar to aces against some random crap...)
What kind of gigantic puss folds here??? Not me, Im taking my chances with AQ. I havent read any other post so maybe I repeated what everyone said or maybe my idea has already been refuted.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, I love calling anyway, so you've conviced me, I call in both hands

[/ QUOTE ]

ok so i got you to make the correct play on one of the hands.. now on to the next.. holla

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ok, I love calling anyway, so you've conviced me, I call in both hands

[/ QUOTE ]

ok so i got you to make the correct play on one of the hands.. now on to the next.. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

omgz, you guys should definitely play HU for a few thousand dollars!!!!1111one

/images/graemlins/grin.gif (i'm in a weird mood today, no one do anything ban-worthy)

[lacky]

we already did, last september

[Slim Pickens]

I'm calling here.

[shorty,button,big,you]=$EV(raptor)
Fold:
shorty wins: [1360,2690,4140,1810]=0.2151
shorty loses: [0,2690,5500,1810]=0.2831
It's hard to say who will have the better hand, so I'll call this 25% equity.

Call:
[shorty,button,big,you]
shorty wins side, you win main: [1440,2690,2410,3460]=0.3075
you win both: [0,2690,2410,4900]=0.3806
big stack wins both: [0,2690,7310,0]=0.2000
short wins main, big wins side: [1440,2690,5870,0]=0

OK, so just guessing at some hand ranges.
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 42.2481 % 40.09% 02.16% { AQo }
Hand 2: 28.8968 % 27.34% 01.56% { 22+, A2s+, Q2s+, J7s+, T8s+, A2o+, K2o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 3: 28.8552 % 27.30% 01.56% { 22+, A2s+, Q2s+, J7s+, T8s+, A2o+, K2o+, J9o+, T9o }


So I'll say shorty wins the main pot 30% of the time (and you win the side 65% in that case), big stack wins both 30% of the time, and you win both 40% of the time.

(40%)*0.3806+(30%)*0.2000+(30%)*(65%*0.3075+35%*0. 0000)=0.2722

Yeah, I'm calling.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
we already did, last september

[/ QUOTE ]

this is lacky's version of talking shat. for the record, we were 1-1 against each other, and i had to win like 230502385923 games on the last day to win the huc. lacky had to win 2 /images/graemlins/wink.gif holla

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
we already did, last september

[/ QUOTE ]

this is lacky's version of talking shat. for the record, we were 1-1 against each other, and i had to win like 230502385923 games on the last day to win the huc. lacky had to win 2 /images/graemlins/wink.gif holla

[/ QUOTE ]

http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/4136/fv1lr.jpg
You were supposed to be this colossus. You were this great, legendary thing. And yet he gains.

[lacky]

nah, just saying we did. playing you heads up is a long term waste of time for both of us. it's 50/50.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
nah, just saying we did. playing you heads up is a long term waste of time for both of us. it's 50/50.

[/ QUOTE ]

its at least 50.1/49.9 in my favor. holla

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why would you play this hand when your not desperate, but pass the other when you are? I'm missing something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because here shorty is so desperate, and the big stack so loose that I love this chance to change the scenery.

In the other hand I would need to be awfully desperate, and awfully live to call a push from somebody that doesn't need chips.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

So you would almost never call a push from a big stack is what you are saying? Or do you just mean in this specific instance?

Damn doctors. Their handwriting isn't the only thing obtuse about them.

[Roman]

lets go, 15/30 NL?

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
lets go, 15/30 NL?

[/ QUOTE ]

at a sng /images/graemlins/wink.gif and i dont even see how you can call me weak tight. i made the damn call. and if you ever sit at the table with me, ull doubtless find a bigger lag. eat a cow. and where is 15-30 NL at.. what site? holla

[Femto]

With a long drawn out ICM analysis on each of the situations, I got something like calling is -1%. With SNGPT adjusted a little bit to make it work (shorty is the BB and has 600 chips at 250/500 blinds, hero is SB, Button is big stack and pushes after CO folds) i got a -5% for calling, with the 50%/30% push call ranges. Did I do something wrong?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
With a long drawn out ICM analysis on each of the situations, I got something like calling is -1%. With SNGPT adjusted a little bit to make it work (shorty is the BB and has 600 chips at 250/500 blinds, hero is SB, Button is big stack and pushes after CO folds) i got a -5% for calling, with the 50%/30% push call ranges. Did I do something wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to do this by hand. SNGPT won't accomodate.

[SumZero]

[ QUOTE ]
With a long drawn out ICM analysis on each of the situations, I got something like calling is -1%. With SNGPT adjusted a little bit to make it work (shorty is the BB and has 600 chips at 250/500 blinds, hero is SB, Button is big stack and pushes after CO folds) i got a -5% for calling, with the 50%/30% push call ranges. Did I do something wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

Both Slim Pickens and myself did separate long drawn out ICM analysis of this situation and showed our work on the thread. We both came to the conclusion that call was quite a bit better.

If you have come to the conclusion that call is worse than either you have done the ICM calculations wrong or else you have a drastically different ranges of hands that you are working with then what we both did. Absent you sharing your work form your long drawn out ICM analysis it is difficult to say which is the case.

[Slim Pickens]

SNGPT won't work for a three-way pot. There isn't really a way to patch it up. As for why your ICM analysis came out to -1%, either you made an error or your hand range is different. There's two examples already in the thread. Check those out and see how they match yours.

[Roman]

You made two posts around the same time asking about making two bad (imo) laydowns. I was mostly kidding about the weaktight thing, anyway I play 15/30 NL on prima, even though I would prefer playing you in a cash game, ill play you in a sng (for fun).