6-12 kq off hand

6/12 at the Borgata.

Preflop: Utg limps, an incredibly weak (checking down straights when flush cards hit, just calling with nut flush on paired board, etc.) tight player UTG+1 raises, seats 5 and 7 coldcall (both very loose players), I call with KQ off in small blind, bb calls. 6 to the flop for 12 sb.

Flop:K 8 3, rainbow. I check, BB and UTG check, UTG+1 bets, seat 5 raises, seat 7 folds, I 3 bet, BB and UTG fold, UTG+1 folds, seat 5 caps it, and I call. 2 to turn for 10.5 bb

Turn: 9. I check and call. 2 to river for 12.5 bb

River: Q. I check, seat 5 bets, and I raise.

I'm most concerned about the flop check-3 bet. At first, I thought it was spewing, but then I realized that given how weak UTG+1 was, I could almost definitely fold out a better hand and get heads up with seat 5. The river may also have been spewing, but I figured he wouldn't 3 bet me with a better hand, and this way I could get 2 in if I did have him beat.

[thesharpie]

Is UTG+1 tight with his raises or just has a low VP$IP? If it's the former I'd ditch it PF unless someone convinces me otherwise, we're getting slightly better than 7 to 1 unless the BB calls and are out of position with an offsuit dominated hand.

I like the postflop play, I don't think you can fold the flop, the loose guy could be raising a weak king he coldcalled with, or even worse, and you have the tight guy beaten fairly often when he has a pocket pair QQ or lower. A 3 bet is better than a call IMO since the tight guy will be getting almost the correct odds to call with a 2 outer if you just call, and you can't really wait to put a raise in later so you might as well do it now. I'd hate to be smoothcalled by both of them on the flop and raised on the turn by one of them, though, but we probably shouldn't worry too much about that.

The turn looks like a close call, you have somewhere around 3.5 outs here. River looks good as long as he's not passive on the river with AA or AK, the only hand you really fear from the tight guy is KK and there's only 1 way he can hold that.

Edit: Disregard my turn and river thoughts above, I thought the PF raiser was the one still involved but it's the coldcaller. Unless you have a passive read I'd call hoping he has something like KJ, but really if you think he'd only play this way with something like AK or better I'd make a prudent fold on the turn. If I estimated your effective outs correctly you have something like 3.3 outs if we give him a range of AK, K3s, K8o, 88, and 33. River still looks good, you're more than twice as likely to have the best hand as long as he'll sometimes play this way with less than 2 pair.

[private joker]

This is an easy fold preflop.

I'd bet/call the river.

[thesharpie]

Ahh forget what I said about folding the turn, I forgot to count hidden outs when the 9 hit, I only counted hidden outs for on the flop if he has K3s. /images/graemlins/blush.gif