Sorry, another stats/running bad post

[Michaelson]

I'm sorry to post yet another stats thread. I've noticed people seem to be pretty charitable in these threads, though, and I'm doing a bit of soul searching at the moment.

I've been playing online seriously for about 6 months now. Always in the past 3/6 6 max on party. I've had a winrate at that level of around 1.6bb/100 over 100,000 hands.

Anyway, a couple of times I've moved up to 5/10, and every time I've been slaughtered. At the same time, though, I cannot convince myself that I'm being outplayed. For one thing, the jump from 3/6 to 5/10 is marginal, secondly, my opponents on 5/10 have pretty remarkably poor stats, and third, the beats just seem insane. I've moved up three times in the past, and every time these facts have struck me. But I don't want to convince myself it's just running bad if in fact I'm not cut out for it. I'm quite happy at 3/6, after all, but I would like to move up.

So, I was hoping I might get some responses as to whether my stats look okay. These are for a 200bb down swing that ran over an 8,000 hand stretch. I've never lost >2BB/100 over a session of this size before. Is it likely varience, or probably bad play on my part? If it is bad play, is it likely that I have failed to make some transition required for moving from 3/6 to 5/10?

I've also included some stats from the misc stats section in case that might give some indication of whether I'm running bad.

Cheers.

http://users.cyberone.com.au/mik06/general.JPG

http://users.cyberone.com.au/mik06/5-10%20stats1.JPG

http://users.cyberone.com.au/mik06/5-10%20stats2.JPG

http://users.cyberone.com.au/mik06/position%20stats.JPG

http://users.cyberone.com.au/mik06/Hand%20stats.JPG

Looks like you're running bad. Not uber bad, but poor. No reason to ignore the other problems, though.

First of all, you need to get a bigger sample size up. 8k doesn't really mean anything. But from what's here:

- You're way too tight. Some people like 22/16 stats, some people like 30/20 stats. Some like an intermediate. You've got 20/16. You need to find more good spots to get in there.

- Probably related to the above, you don't attempt to steal anywhere close to often enough. You're at 24%, the bare bones minimum is 30%. Open way the hell up when you're on the button or one off.

- River aggression is super low. More value bets, sir.

- Flop aggression is really high. Calm down.

Those are your biggest leaks, and they're stuff you'll have to correct right away.

[Michaelson]

Thanks for a very helpful reply.

I was aware of value betting and flop aggression, but I always thought my preflop play was pretty solid. Is there that much of a difference between 22/16 and 20/16? I guess I should start limping a few extra hands...

I'll have a bit of a look for info on blind stealing as well.

Thanks again.

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I should start limping a few extra hands...

[/ QUOTE ]

No! Ah! NOOO! That would be counterproductive. Limping never solved anything. Should you start making an appropriate amount of steals that will raise your VPIP signficantly.

folded to BB steal looks a little high

[Michaelson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess I should start limping a few extra hands...

[/ QUOTE ]

No! Ah! NOOO! That would be counterproductive. Limping never solved anything. Should you start making an appropriate amount of steals that will raise your VPIP signficantly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right... So go from 20/16 to 22/18, rather than 22/16... Or am I missing something?

Another thing, I'm pretty sure I call on the river too much. It's fairly safe to say the river's my weakest street, actually. What sort of range is appropriate for "called a river bet?"

[imported_leader]

You're not running bad IMO. You're playing bad. You're too tight PF in late position and you're BB play is quite bad. You need to defend more. You're post flop play isn't good either. 3.7 flop AF is just way too high. You're likely not calling enough. You probably had marginal success at 3/6 running people over but as you move up you have to give those bad aggressive players some rope to hang themselves. And in the future don’t make stats posts that consist of 8K hands.

[bdmcgraw]

To the above poster:

8k hands may not be enough for a winrate, but it certainly is enough to make comments on (As you did yourself, and everyone else did) don't play the #hands game when theres certainly a lot of useful information that he can learn (winrate excluded) from the stats he posted

[imported_leader]

[ QUOTE ]
To the above poster:

8k hands may not be enough for a winrate, but it certainly is enough to make comments on (As you did yourself, and everyone else did) don't play the #hands game when theres certainly a lot of useful information that he can learn (winrate excluded) from the stats he posted

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not really enough for blind defence. Besides stats only tell you obvious things. Besides the reason he's posting this is that he lost 2K in 8K hands. That's pretty common for anyone that plays a lot of hands. 8K is practically a week for me. I’ve run worse then this over 8K.

[B00T]

The most glaring leak I can see as others have wrote is your attempt to steal blinds.

You should be adding about 1/3 more hands than you are already stealing with. That would put you at 35-37% which is good at 5-10.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
To the above poster:

8k hands may not be enough for a winrate, but it certainly is enough to make comments on (As you did yourself, and everyone else did) don't play the #hands game when theres certainly a lot of useful information that he can learn (winrate excluded) from the stats he posted

[/ QUOTE ]

All you can really see is if someone is doing something horribly wrong - there's very little besides vague generalities that can be offered... nearly anyone who thinks about making a stats post would be better served by posting specific hands or situations that have been difficult. Additionally, it's in the posting guidelines that stats posts below 30k hands are discouraged specifically because they are so uninformative.

Additionally, all positional information is nearly irrelevant over this size sample.

I hope things turn around for the original poster - post some more hands and postflop situations (that's where the money is) and get hands in, you'll turn it around.

Surf

[Michaelson]

[ QUOTE ]
Besides the reason he's posting this is that he lost 2K in 8K hands. That's pretty common for anyone that plays a lot of hands. 8K is practically a week for me. I’ve run worse then this over 8K.

[/ QUOTE ]

For the record, I asked in my original post whether this sort of loss can be expected over an 8k stretch. I haven't been playing long, and it's been quite a distressing weekend for me. I also included only an 8k sample because that was the bad run, and I wanted to look at the stats from the game I was getting slaughtered in.

Anyhow, I'll learn from my mistake... bigger sample size in the future. I appreciate the responses I've received. One last question though: Have others found that there is a discernable difference in standard between 3/6 and 5/10 on party that requires an adjustment in play? As I say, I've moved up three times from 3/6, where I win well (despite the leaks) and every time has been nasty.

Cheers.

[Surfbullet]

Hey Michaelson,

if you are picky about your tables the 5/10 is almost as soft as the 3/6. It's slightly more aggressive so the swings can be more intense - but 8k really is such an incredibly small sample...it's common to have a winning player breakeven for 10k or even 15k. The long run is really long, and the only solution is to log thousands and thousands of hands playing your best poker, while improving your game on a daily basis.

Good luck,

Surf

[Michaelson]

Thanks for the encouragement.

The tables, to me, look just as soft as 3/6. Certainly feels that way when I look at the hands that beat me time and time again. But having blown about a month and a half's profits on 3/6 in the space of 3 days and 10k hands, I'm waving the white flag and moving back down. Will work on game extensively over summer holidays and make the move back up when I have a bigger bankroll and more confidence.

Really quite demoralizing, but I guess dem's de breaks in gambling life. Thankyou for everyone's advice, I hope to become a regular contributer over the coming months

Cheers.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
t's common to have a winning player breakeven for 10k or even 15k. T

[/ QUOTE ]

try 20k hands and 400bb downswing. you could argue i was not a winning player at the time tho although i had stellar results prior. fun game no doubt.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
t's common to have a winning player breakeven for 10k or even 15k. T

[/ QUOTE ]

try 20k hands and 400bb downswing. you could argue i was not a winning player at the time tho although i had stellar results prior. fun game no doubt.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't start with me Victor. 400BB downswing, results in 38k breakeven. I get above water and go into a 200 BB downswing. Total? 60k breakeven. I own you at running bad /images/graemlins/mad.gif

Seriously though I hope things turn around. Send me a PM if you want to talk shop sometime.

Surf

[ArturiusX]

Or as a counter arguement, you should be defending more.