(109) Bubble Fun with Raptor

[raptor517]

***** Hand History for Game 3031363654 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $100 Buy-in + $9 Entry Fee Trny:17387708 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Sunday, November 13, 19:00:48 EDT 2005
Table Table 67199 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: Cuban ( $4570 )
Seat 4: iPLaY2PLaCe ( $3205 )
Seat 5: Raptor_517 ( $1280 )
Seat 8: bnaz2004 ( $945 )
Trny:17387708 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Raptor_517 [ Ac Qd ]
Cuban folds.
iPLaY2PLaCe is all-In [3205]
>You have options at Table 67438 Table!.
>You have options at Table 67438 Table!.
Raptor_517 ?

holla

[ClaytonN]

What's Cuban's calling range for the hand after this, and what's IPlay's pushing range?

[raptor517]

well, i wish i could read minds, but if the pusher is decent hes not shoving a HUGE range if he assumes the big blind is decent because he knows he has to call any 2, though if i get in there obv the bb will fold most hands. holla

[GtrHtr]

LOL, I am happy to be the first to vote fold. AINEC

[Bonafone]

Unless the pusher is a complete maniac this is a fold.

[valenzuela]

Im guessing this is a fold, I rather have BB racing.

[bawcerelli]

edit- i thought this open pusher was UTG and big stack was in the BB. given that big stack has folded and this guy is pushing into the two small stacks, I'm calling.

[microbet]

Call, unless pusher sucks.

[bawcerelli]

misread hand history, nevermind.

[SumZero]

I think IPlay should be pushing with just less than 50% of hands. There will be dead money in the pot from the small blind and Raptor will fold 90+% of hands and BB will call 90+% of hands. So most of the time it is putting in 945 to win 2040. So I think he can make that play on top 50% of hands (say any pair, any ace, any king, q5+, J7+, t8+).

For Raptor's decision, assume BB will fold any cards for simplicity. Now Raptor has to call 1130 more to win 2860. His equity against this range is 63.232%.

Call:
So we have call and win: 4570, 1925, 2860, 645 : ICM says $298.2607
Call and lose and we have: $0.

63.232*298.2607 = $188.60

But maybe BB calls with good hands (QQ+,AK?) so this might change our EV slightly (cut down slightly on our EV most likely).

Fold:
a) If BB folds we have: 4570, 3655, 1130, 645 : ICM says $186.11

b) If BB calls and wins we have: 4570, 2260, 1130, 2040 : ICM says $150.60

c) If BB calls and loses we have: 5470, 4300, 1130 : ICM says $251.93

Most likely we'll see something like a:b:c::1:4:5. So our fold prediction is .1*186.11+.4*150.60+.5*251.93 which is $204.82 EV.

So if you buy that IPlay should push with about top 50% of hands then we should fold, and it isn't close.

Even if it was a:b:c::6:2:2 (I.e., a very weak-tight bb) it would be $192.17 EV fold.

[skipperbob]

I vote fold; but that assumes that bnaz's T945 is before posting BB

[microbet]

I guess it's better to explain a bit.

If pusher doesn't suck, he's pushing a wide range here. After all, neither of you want to bust 4th and here's a chance to get some chips without facing big stack.

If you fold and little stack folds: fack, I just wasted my AQ.

If you fold and little stack calls, well, if he doubles that sucks arse and I just as soon take my shot at doubling AQ against pushers wide range as have shorties random hand go against that wide range. Plus, this way you get a shot at first or second.

If pusher sucks enough, it's different.

[ QUOTE ]
I guess it's better to explain a bit.

If pusher doesn't suck, he's pushing a wide range here. After all, neither of you want to bust 4th and here's a chance to get some chips without facing big stack.

If you fold and little stack folds: fack, I just wasted my AQ.

If you fold and little stack calls, well, if he doubles that sucks arse and I just as soon take my shot at doubling AQ against pushers wide range as have shorties random hand go against that wide range. Plus, this way you get a shot at first or second.

If pusher sucks enough, it's different.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good pusher's not pushing loosely here because BB calls very frequently here.

This may make this a better call though, as he's probably pushing any ace and we dominate most of those.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess it's better to explain a bit.

If pusher doesn't suck, he's pushing a wide range here. After all, neither of you want to bust 4th and here's a chance to get some chips without facing big stack.

If you fold and little stack folds: fack, I just wasted my AQ.

If you fold and little stack calls, well, if he doubles that sucks arse and I just as soon take my shot at doubling AQ against pushers wide range as have shorties random hand go against that wide range. Plus, this way you get a shot at first or second.

If pusher sucks enough, it's different.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good pusher's not pushing loosely here because BB calls very frequently here.

This may make this a better call though, as he's probably pushing any ace and we dominate most of those.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, let's call it semantics. "Any ace" is starting to get pretty loose.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess it's better to explain a bit.

If pusher doesn't suck, he's pushing a wide range here. After all, neither of you want to bust 4th and here's a chance to get some chips without facing big stack.

If you fold and little stack folds: fack, I just wasted my AQ.

If you fold and little stack calls, well, if he doubles that sucks arse and I just as soon take my shot at doubling AQ against pushers wide range as have shorties random hand go against that wide range. Plus, this way you get a shot at first or second.

If pusher sucks enough, it's different.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good pusher's not pushing loosely here because BB calls very frequently here.

This may make this a better call though, as he's probably pushing any ace and we dominate most of those.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, let's call it semantics. "Any ace" is starting to get pretty loose.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont consider any ace to be a loose push at all. it should be automatic to anyone. a good player will not be shoving a huge amount of hands from this button. if bb is good at ALL, he is calling with almost any 2. holla

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
I guess it's better to explain a bit.

If pusher doesn't suck, he's pushing a wide range here. After all, neither of you want to bust 4th and here's a chance to get some chips without facing big stack.

If you fold and little stack folds: fack, I just wasted my AQ.

If you fold and little stack calls, well, if he doubles that sucks arse and I just as soon take my shot at doubling AQ against pushers wide range as have shorties random hand go against that wide range. Plus, this way you get a shot at first or second.

If pusher sucks enough, it's different.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good pusher's not pushing loosely here because BB calls very frequently here.

This may make this a better call though, as he's probably pushing any ace and we dominate most of those.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, let's call it semantics. "Any ace" is starting to get pretty loose.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont consider any ace to be a loose push at all. it should be automatic to anyone. a good player will not be shoving a huge amount of hands from this button. if bb is good at ALL, he is calling with almost any 2. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems like it could be a very profitable situation and you may even be free-rolling. If bb calls, he's behind and you may be receiving lots of dead chips to bb's 3:1 call. Btn likely has ace-rag or small-mid pocket pair?

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess it's better to explain a bit.

If pusher doesn't suck, he's pushing a wide range here. After all, neither of you want to bust 4th and here's a chance to get some chips without facing big stack.

If you fold and little stack folds: fack, I just wasted my AQ.

If you fold and little stack calls, well, if he doubles that sucks arse and I just as soon take my shot at doubling AQ against pushers wide range as have shorties random hand go against that wide range. Plus, this way you get a shot at first or second.

If pusher sucks enough, it's different.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good pusher's not pushing loosely here because BB calls very frequently here.

This may make this a better call though, as he's probably pushing any ace and we dominate most of those.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, let's call it semantics. "Any ace" is starting to get pretty loose.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont consider any ace to be a loose push at all. it should be automatic to anyone. a good player will not be shoving a huge amount of hands from this button. if bb is good at ALL, he is calling with almost any 2. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems like it could be a very profitable situation and you may even be free-rolling. If bb calls, he's behind and you may be receiving lots of dead chips to bb's 3:1 call. Btn likely has ace-rag or small-mid pocket pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

yer joking right? what do you think the short stack bb is calling with here? MAYBE like JJ+ and AK if hes good. hes not just 'coming along for the ride' with all sorts of crap hands. hes gonna hope you bust so he can sneak. period. holla

[bawcerelli]

the reason i hate a fold here is if the BB calls and doubles up, you're gonna be in a tough spot to make it ITM. based on your stack size i think you still have fight, and taking on a bigger stack with AQo is good enough IMO to do it with.

[microbet]

It's pretty close. I've played against BB and wouldn't count on him to either fold a huge range if you call or to call with a huge range if you fold.

Yes easy call but what was the outcome?

[raptor517]

it appears as though i go against the grain in most of these, but i suppose it can go either way as is often the case. i wont fault anyone for calling. icm clearly states that its -ev to call here, however i dont hate a call. i folded because i felt that big blind was going to call with any 2, and im willing to let him do that then start shovebotting to get back into the game if needed.

the reason its -ev to call should be obvious. bb isnt coming along for the ride unless he has something like JJ+ or AK. it would be very foolish to do otherwise. buttons range is probably smaller than most would presume because he isnt awful and knows hes very likely getting called by the bb. i made this adjustment and thought it leaned more towards a fold. holla

[Irieguy]

Geez... I fold here without a whole lot of thought.

Funny that my answers for both AQ hands are the opposite of the prevailing opinion.

Perhaps it's time for me to consider that instead of being a really good player running a bit cool... I'm actually a crap player on a sick 5-year heater.

Irieguy

[ QUOTE ]
Funny that my answers for both AQ hands are the opposite of the prevailing opinion.


[/ QUOTE ]

Then you are wrong. You may have need to improve your game. Welcome to PM me with hand history and I will help you.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
Geez... I fold here without a whole lot of thought.

Funny that my answers for both AQ hands are the opposite of the prevailing opinion.

Perhaps it's time for me to consider that instead of being a really good player running a bit cool... I'm actually a crap player on a sick 5-year heater.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

funny how both of my answers were opposing the norm as well /images/graemlins/wink.gif must mean we suck. holla

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Geez... I fold here without a whole lot of thought.

Funny that my answers for both AQ hands are the opposite of the prevailing opinion.

Perhaps it's time for me to consider that instead of being a really good player running a bit cool... I'm actually a crap player on a sick 5-year heater.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

funny how both of my answers were opposing the norm as well /images/graemlins/wink.gif must mean we suck. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

what a buncha smug little biatches /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[axeshigh]

C'mon guys. You assume a) pusher doesn't push crap, and b) BB will call with almost any 2 if you fold, which means you either call and flip for your stack or fold and have a good chance that the BB will bust. Even if he doesn't bust you can still take the flip later. Easy fold.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]


what a buncha smug little biatches /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps it's time for me to consider that instead of being a really good player running a bit cool... I'm actually a crap player on a sick 5-year heater.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't being smug, I was being serious.

I just busted out of the WSOP Circuit tourney at Bally's nearing the money and this was my version of self abuse.

Ironic that it comes off as me being an smug, arrogant, prick... thereby making my attempt to publicly punnish myself far more effective than I ever intended.

Irieguy

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


what a buncha smug little biatches /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps it's time for me to consider that instead of being a really good player running a bit cool... I'm actually a crap player on a sick 5-year heater.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't being smug, I was being serious.

I just busted out of the WSOP Circuit tourney at Bally's nearing the money and this was my version of self abuse.

Ironic that it comes off as me being an smug, arrogant, prick... thereby making my attempt to publicly punnish myself far more effective than I ever intended.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just messing about, you come off as the humblest of men...what you SHOULd worry about though is that I also agree with you about these two hands. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

P.S. Sorry to hear about your bubbling.

[freemoney]

i think this has to be one of the most insanely marginal decisions, its kind of akin to making a post on whether or not to choose heads or tails, maybe the reasoning behind the decision is helpful for improvement in this case but the actual decision pretty much makes no difference.

What a goddamn dreadful spot. I think I fold, but YUCK.

[caretaker1]

If your read is that BB will call any 2 and pusher is raising with a decent hand, this should be an easy fold.

[Degen]

super dooper insta fast call

[Degen]

[ QUOTE ]
icm clearly states that its -ev to call here

[/ QUOTE ]

Further validation for my ongoing decision not to incorporate ICM or SNGPT into my game in a big way.

I'd be interested to see some before and after ROI numbers for people who have drastically changed their methods with these 'tools'

This is one of the easiest calls I've ever seen. No way in hell that short stack is going to call with a freeroll to get into the money...i put shorties calling range here at the top ten hands, at the widest.

However if the pusher has any clue at all, he's pushing AT LEAST the top 40-60%...how you do not equate that situation to a super insta call is beyond me.

CALL CALL CALL CALL insta CALL

[Nicholasp27]

well i thought this was an easy fold; surprised to see the poll skew so strongly toward call

i'd rather let bb coin-flip for his stack than have me coin-flip for my stack

let's see...

if i call, then roughly 50% of the time, +/- 20% i'm out of the tourney in 4th

if i fold, then roughly 50% of the time bb is out of the tourney in 4th and i'm itm

i think my odds of winning/placing are better when bb doubles up and i'm shorty than when i'm out of the tourney...


i also think calling would have to be pretty largely -ev icm-wise...at least -.7 or more...and sngpt wouldn't even take into account the fact that bb is calling with a huge % of hands here, which makes it even more -ev to call and allow bb to fold and freeroll into the money

i think this is a classic instance of the situation being more important than the cards u hold...u have an extremely tight calling range here, like aa/kk tight

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
i think this has to be one of the most insanely marginal decisions, its kind of akin to making a post on whether or not to choose heads or tails, maybe the reasoning behind the decision is helpful for improvement in this case but the actual decision pretty much makes no difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, for what my insanely marginal opinion is worth /images/graemlins/smile.gif

ICM says Call is -ev ... right.
But why do You say that BB must call that push almost with any two???
According to the SNGPT:
Asuuming BB is pushing 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q6o+,J7s+,
(really loose range)
To gain +0,2% EV BB must have:
Call hands: 22+,A2+,K9o+,K8s+,QJs (26%) (+0,2%)

May be I am missing smth. But I always thought that calling with ATC on BB is + ev when you have less than 2 BB...
And SNGPT proved that.
When SNG authority says quite different that confuses me
Please explain your logic.

TY

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
i folded because i felt that big blind was going to call with any 2, and im willing to let him do that then start shovebotting to get back into the game if needed.

[/ QUOTE ]

My play here varies from STT to STT, but I imagine I call most of the time. These days (in the $55s), I feel my opponents have opened up their calling standards enough that I'm not as confident about shovebotting myself back into the game if the BB doubles up.

[fnord_too]

I'm going to go against the prevailing oppinion of poster I pay a lot of attention to and probably call here. (I think it is pretty close though.) I really should do some math, but I am feeling too beat up after this weekend to. Part of my thinking is the BB taking a 40/60 shot here is not so great for me. Against any ace, any pair AQo is close to a 60/40 favorite (I think his range is slightly different than that, but I think 60/40 against the real range is pretty close).

Ok, here is some quick and dirty math with no ICM:

I call, 60% I have 2850ish and there are two short stacks, 40% I am out.
I fold, I have 1100, and 40% of the time I am in 4th with about halve the stack of 3'd, the other 60% I am in third with 1/4 the stack of second.

I really should ICM those, maybe later.

[Roman]

I instacall... this is exactly why pushbotting works so well, how can you fold this?

[Nicholasp27]

arhz,

the bb only has 645, or just a tad over 2bbs, after posting this bb

he doesn't have 945 anymore

[Scuba Chuck]

Man, I'm not sure if I'm weak tight or not, but I'm in the minority on both of these hands.

Had to pull out Eastbay's tool to see what this means.

This is only +$EV against a maniac pusher, otherwise, the tighter the range, the more -$EV it becomes. And we're not talking about small amounts.

Furthermore, if villain really is a maniac, the +$EV amount is very miniscule.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]


Further validation for my ongoing decision not to incorporate ICM or SNGPT into my game in a big way.


[/ QUOTE ]

This may be one of the more foolish comments I've seen you make. I don't know where ICM couldn't be more accurate than in places like this. Essentially folding here gives you an expected value of about $10-33 every time. But if villain is really a maniac, then you're only gaining only $1.75.

I thought good poker players looked for ways to maximize their edges?

[freemoney]

there are factors such as big stacks trying to prolong bubble or bigger stacks more likely to attack you and give the smaller stack a walk if he folds here that are pretty impossible to calculate here.

[pooh74]

Wish I had some analysis, but Im sure its all here somewhere...I'd call both of these hands. In gametime, given a few seconds expecially. I've now thought about both hands for 10 minutes....and I would still say call.

[ QUOTE ]
Man, I'm not sure if I'm weak tight or not, but I'm in the minority on both of these hands.

Had to pull out Eastbay's tool to see what this means.

This is only +$EV against a maniac pusher, otherwise, the tighter the range, the more -$EV it becomes. And we're not talking about small amounts.

Furthermore, if villain really is a maniac, the +$EV amount is very miniscule.

[/ QUOTE ]SNGPT's maniac range is only 22%-23% of hands. It's easy to imagine the pusher here has a wider range than that.

"Maniac" doesn't really mean "crazy" (at least not in all cases), just a bit wider than "loose".

[Scuba Chuck]

SNGPT's maniac range is only 22%-23% of hands. It's easy to imagine the pusher here has a wider range than that.

"Maniac" doesn't really mean "crazy" (at least not in all cases), just a bit wider than "loose".

[/ QUOTE ]

You should give Eastbay more credit. Anyway, for your viewing pleasure, I adjusted manaic to any two cards.

Using Eastbays' default manaic, it's +0.2%
Using any two cards, it's +0.6%

Thanks for making your point that much stronger.

[ QUOTE ]
Unless the pusher is a complete maniac this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

What difference does it make? You're likely worse off against a maniac than a moderately tight player. Unless this guy has shown he only pushes with pocket pairs, I'd rather call against somebody pushing with an ace or any two broadway cards, as I'm likely to have him dominated. I voted fold BTW.

[lacky]

what has me worried is i'm in the majority. That never happens. I'm not kidding either. For me to be in the majority in this poll represents a major shift in this groups thinking. I like being contrarian. If this continues I'm gonna end up playing like raptor /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
what has me worried is i'm in the majority. That never happens. I'm not kidding either. For me to be in the majority in this poll represents a major shift in this groups thinking. I like being contrarian. If this continues I'm gonna end up playing like raptor /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to explain your reasoning for calling here?

[curtains]

FWIW the most you can gain from calling according to SNGPT s +.6%, if they are pushing with 100% of hands.

[lacky]

well, at some point I'm gonna have to play a hand unless I do a fold race with the small stack and hope he doesnt get lucky. Going that route leaves me with a few hundred chips in 3rd, if I'm lucky. If small stack gets lucky on his all in hand and i dont I'm screwed. I hate playing that way.

So, assuming I have to push something, I will have to push into or past a stack that can call with no worries, and a stack that can call pretty louse, cause i cant hurt them much. anytime I'm in small blind and small is in bb one of the 2 huge stacks will raise just to wear us down so they can get rid of us. So, assuming I'm gonna be showing down a hand anyway, AQ is a pretty decent hand to be in against the huge range that the button is pushing here. Also, the sooner I play a hand the more chips I get for my double up, giving me more chances for 1st.

Is any of this correct? Donno, but it is how I see it.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
well, at some point I'm gonna have to play a hand unless I do a fold race with the small stack and hope he doesnt get lucky. Going that route leaves me with a few hundred chips in 3rd, if I'm lucky. If small stack gets lucky on his all in hand and i dont I'm screwed. I hate playing that way.

So, assuming I have to push something, I will have to push into or past a stack that can call with no worries, and a stack that can call pretty louse, cause i cant hurt them much. anytime I'm in small blind and small is in bb one of the 2 huge stacks will raise just to wear us down so they can get rid of us. So, assuming I'm gonna be showing down a hand anyway, AQ is a pretty decent hand to be in against the huge range that the button is pushing here. Also, the sooner I play a hand the more chips I get for my double up, giving me more chances for 1st.

Is any of this correct? Donno, but it is how I see it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I follow all of your thoughts. And barring my use of SNGPT, this is how I would logically think through it as well. But I don't think this maximizes EV, and that's what SNGPT tells us.

[The Don]

[ QUOTE ]
i think this has to be one of the most insanely marginal decisions, its kind of akin to making a post on whether or not to choose heads or tails, maybe the reasoning behind the decision is helpful for improvement in this case but the actual decision pretty much makes no difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed... but call because gambling is more fun than not.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think this has to be one of the most insanely marginal decisions, its kind of akin to making a post on whether or not to choose heads or tails, maybe the reasoning behind the decision is helpful for improvement in this case but the actual decision pretty much makes no difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed... but call because gambling is more fun than not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, if thats the case, then I, Raptor, will call because I am better with more chips than my opponents are. That tips the scales for me at least.

[lacky]

I think even eastbay would say that sngpt isn't designed to see how the game is going to play out givin the stack sizes and reletive positions. What sngpt says on a givin push or call is good to know, and one of the things to consider, but there is more to it than what sngpt says. (or i'm wrong. I bought sngpt and played with it for MAYBY 2 hours. I am not an expert on that program or ICM in general)

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I think even eastbay would say that sngpt isn't designed to see how the game is going to play out givin the stack sizes and reletive positions. What sngpt says on a givin push or call is good to know, and one of the things to consider, but there is more to it than what sngpt says. (or i'm wrong. I bought sngpt and played with it for MAYBY 2 hours. I am not an expert on that program or ICM in general)

[/ QUOTE ]

I've just always had the assumption that SNGPT's value is greatest, for sngs, when it's down to 4 people or less.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think this has to be one of the most insanely marginal decisions, its kind of akin to making a post on whether or not to choose heads or tails, maybe the reasoning behind the decision is helpful for improvement in this case but the actual decision pretty much makes no difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed... but call because gambling is more fun than not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, if thats the case, then I, Raptor, will call because I am better with more chips than my opponents are. That tips the scales for me at least.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think a point everyone seems to be missing is that the big blind, if even relatively decent, will call with ANY TWO because he knows he will lose a fold race and hes getting better than 2 to 1. any 2 cards folks. keep that in mind. some good points being made though keep it up. holla

[ QUOTE ]
SNGPT's maniac range is only 22%-23% of hands. It's easy to imagine the pusher here has a wider range than that.

"Maniac" doesn't really mean "crazy" (at least not in all cases), just a bit wider than "loose".

[/ QUOTE ]

You should give Eastbay more credit. Anyway, for your viewing pleasure, I adjusted manaic to any two cards.

Using Eastbays' default manaic, it's +0.2%
Using any two cards, it's +0.6%

Thanks for making your point that much stronger.

[/ QUOTE ]My point wasn't really specific to this problem, but rather a general point about the "maniac" descriptor not meant to mean anything other than "wider than loose". Sort of like when you go to 7-11 and get a soft drink, you can't get a small, the choices are something like large, super and mega. And, I'm pretty sure I have seen eastbay post something to this effect -- I'm not making it up and it's not meant as a criticism of SNGPT.

I'm not sure SNGPT is adequate to solve this problem. If the SB folds, the BB will be calling on a very wide range of hands, right? And, I don't think SNGPT takes this into consideration when determining the post hand equity in the case where SB folds. Of course, this consideration may make a stronger case for not calling.

[ QUOTE ]

FWIW the most you can gain from calling according to SNGPT s +.6%, if they are pushing with 100% of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]In determining the posthand equity in the case where SB folds, does SNGPT take into account the likelihood of the BB calling? I don't think so. When the BB goes out, the SB's equity will go up, won't it? This probably means that SNGPT is saying the SB call is better than it actually is, I'm not sure, but at the very least it suggests to me that SNGPT isn't nearly definitive. (As you've noted with "FWIW". I'm not suggesting you claimed SNGPT gave a definitive answer.)

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think this has to be one of the most insanely marginal decisions, its kind of akin to making a post on whether or not to choose heads or tails, maybe the reasoning behind the decision is helpful for improvement in this case but the actual decision pretty much makes no difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed... but call because gambling is more fun than not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, if thats the case, then I, Raptor, will call because I am better with more chips than my opponents are. That tips the scales for me at least.

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i think a point everyone seems to be missing is that the big blind, if even relatively decent, will call with ANY TWO because he knows he will lose a fold race and hes getting better than 2 to 1. any 2 cards folks. keep that in mind. some good points being made though keep it up. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm with you that I fold this, but I think you're vastly overestimating how often the BB is good enough to call with any 2. The players in the 109's aren't great, especially regarding concepts like this.

[valenzuela]

I think its a fold for the following reasons:
a) calling leaves you on a sloppy position.
b) If the BB fold that would leave you in a good position.
c) If the BB calls ...ure in an OK position for a steal.

It seems to me that point C is being overlooked. Whether BB wins or loses, hero will have the button to do some cool profitable pushing.

[raptor517]

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i think this has to be one of the most insanely marginal decisions, its kind of akin to making a post on whether or not to choose heads or tails, maybe the reasoning behind the decision is helpful for improvement in this case but the actual decision pretty much makes no difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed... but call because gambling is more fun than not.

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Yeah, if thats the case, then I, Raptor, will call because I am better with more chips than my opponents are. That tips the scales for me at least.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think a point everyone seems to be missing is that the big blind, if even relatively decent, will call with ANY TWO because he knows he will lose a fold race and hes getting better than 2 to 1. any 2 cards folks. keep that in mind. some good points being made though keep it up. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm with you that I fold this, but I think you're vastly overestimating how often the BB is good enough to call with any 2. The players in the 109's aren't great, especially regarding concepts like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

as far as that goes, in general, i think the 109ers call ENTIRELY too much in spots where they have no reason whatsoever to, and not nearly enough when they need to.. which is a possibility in this situation. however, i do think they call in that spot more than enough to make the AQ fold correct, even if they dont call with 93o. holla

[ZeroPointMachine]

BB should call with any 2. If you are certain he will call then folding makes sense. I've seen BBs in much worse shape fold.

What are the consequences if he folds? You will be paralyzed hoping he doesn't double up in the next hand or two and powerless to do anything about it. Next hand UTG probably won't push into the big stack. You sure as hell won't push. Then it is up to same SB to decide if he pushes into auto-calling big stack. If he then folds his SB you are pretty much doomed to third place at best as the big stacks will steal your BB without a fight.

So, you wind up in the SB 680t after posting. BB has 195t after posting. If the bigstack is enjoying this extended bubble and the other stack has to decide what to do with his random hand given that BB "should call any 2". He may very well leave it to you with your random hand.

Basically, I think there are alot of things that can go wrong and you still bubble if BB folds. I understand that if BB is calling 100% folding the AQ makes sense. You get a 60% chance to make the money and still have a chance if BB wins.

What percentage of time does BB need to fold before you call here?

[bigt439]

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i think this has to be one of the most insanely marginal decisions, its kind of akin to making a post on whether or not to choose heads or tails, maybe the reasoning behind the decision is helpful for improvement in this case but the actual decision pretty much makes no difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed... but call because gambling is more fun than not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, if thats the case, then I, Raptor, will call because I am better with more chips than my opponents are. That tips the scales for me at least.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think a point everyone seems to be missing is that the big blind, if even relatively decent, will call with ANY TWO because he knows he will lose a fold race and hes getting better than 2 to 1. any 2 cards folks. keep that in mind. some good points being made though keep it up. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm with you that I fold this, but I think you're vastly overestimating how often the BB is good enough to call with any 2. The players in the 109's aren't great, especially regarding concepts like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

as far as that goes, in general, i think the 109ers call ENTIRELY too much in spots where they have no reason whatsoever to, and not nearly enough when they need to.. which is a possibility in this situation. however, i do think they call in that spot more than enough to make the AQ fold correct, even if they dont call with 93o. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, I'm with you on the fold regardless of what we're talking about. I also agree that some people call too much, while others don't call nearly enough. But in this specific spot I notice people folding alot more than they should, because so many people would rather enter into a fold race with you even though they really shouldn't.

Maybe that's just been my experience, but I think surprisingly few people call with any 2, although I do think their range is rather large. Something like top 50-60% for the average player sounds about right to me. Again this isn't incredibly important to this thread, but relative to general play I think.

EDIT: Yeah I reread your post and we're basically on the same page. I thought you were getting at something else.

[freemoney]

i think the BB folds about 25% of hands on average at the 109s.

[citanul]

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i think the BB folds about 25% of hands on average at the 109s.

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mhm.

c

[Exitonly]

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I instacall... this is exactly why pushbotting works so well, how can you fold this?

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[raptor517]

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I instacall... this is exactly why pushbotting works so well, how can you fold this?

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playing winning poker is one of them crazy concepts it seems.. easy math shows how this is a -ev call. holla

[tigerite]

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Geez... I fold here without a whole lot of thought.

Funny that my answers for both AQ hands are the opposite of the prevailing opinion.

Perhaps it's time for me to consider that instead of being a really good player running a bit cool... I'm actually a crap player on a sick 5-year heater.

Irieguy

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funny how both of my answers were opposing the norm as well /images/graemlins/wink.gif must mean we suck. holla

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I also went for fold, you'd be amazed to find. Heh.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

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Geez... I fold here without a whole lot of thought.

Funny that my answers for both AQ hands are the opposite of the prevailing opinion.

Perhaps it's time for me to consider that instead of being a really good player running a bit cool... I'm actually a crap player on a sick 5-year heater.

Irieguy

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funny how both of my answers were opposing the norm as well /images/graemlins/wink.gif must mean we suck. holla

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I also went for fold, you'd be amazed to find. Heh.

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what is your answer to Raptor's other AQ post where t480 shorty pushes and big stack pushes over the top?

[tigerite]

That one's a lot harder than this one. I've also been away most of the weekend and week until now, so I hadn't had chance to look at it. But I think it's a marginal fold, I'd like more time to decide though. This one is a much more clear-cut fold, at least for me.

[Gramps]

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Seat 2: Cuban ( $4570 )
Seat 4: iPLaY2PLaCe ( $3205 )
Seat 5: Raptor_517 ( $1280 )
Seat 8: bnaz2004 ( $945 )

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why it pays to pay attention to your opponents (even when 8 or 10 tabling).

The more "pushbot" the pusher is, and the more I think I've played with him before (and the more likely I am to play with him in the future), the more likely I am to call.

How did the BB get down to 945? If he's been a folding puss, he ain't calling with any two (and any decent player isn't calling with any two here - he knows you're short as well, and if he wins just one showdown, he takes the lead on you, so he'll do it where he thinks he has a decent shot at winning). If this gets into a "fold off," kiss your chances at 2nd and 1st pretty much goodbye. If you call and win, you have a 2860 to 1925 edge on 2nd place (he has position on you, but you should be right in the thick of it most of the time after the bubble).

There's just so many 2+2 types in the 109s and 215s who would push just about any two here (and keep pushing into the two short stacks), that (a) you're probably like 63%-64% at worst; and (b) so long as you and other shorty are around, you're going to continually be pushed into, often turning it into a "fold off" where 2nd/1st go out the window even if (much of the time) you win a showdown and get a few chips back (because the other two stacks will have a huge edge on you and shorty, and continue to abuse your blinds).

But maybe I've just been on a 15,000+ SNG heater...actually, in most cases, I don't think it's wrong either way (calling or folding). My default is always to play strong hands, so if I wasn't sure, I would call (which means I'd call unless the button was tight/had folded other times in spots like these, or the BB was a known "give up caller" in a spot like this (I have notes on a few players who do do this with semi-regularity)).

P.S. If you're calling any two in your BB here, you've found a leak.

[raptor517]

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P.S. If you're calling any two in your BB here, you've found a leak.

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i dont think its as much of a leak as you presume. button shoves, i fold, bb is looking at 1395 in the pot and needs to call 645, and is thus getting 2.16 to 1. not exactly terrible odds since he no longer has any FE whatsoever. in all honesty, even calling with 23o isnt a very large leak at all.. holla

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

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P.S. If you're calling any two in your BB here, you've found a leak.

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i dont think its as much of a leak as you presume. button shoves, i fold, bb is looking at 1395 in the pot and needs to call 645, and is thus getting 2.16 to 1. not exactly terrible odds since he no longer has any FE whatsoever. in all honesty, even calling with 23o isnt a very large leak at all.. holla

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I made my stand w/ 32o last night in the bubble. I figured I was against 2 overs making it 2:1 against my hand but I was getting 3:2 from Pot... pretty close to even... I flopped 2 pair (pairing either would have been enough to win against his AJo)... boy was he pissed, but I was a wounded animal needing to make a stand w/ pretty good odds. Finished 2nd!

[Gramps]

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i dont think its as much of a leak as you presume. button shoves, i fold, bb is looking at 1395 in the pot and needs to call 645, and is thus getting 2.16 to 1. not exactly terrible odds since he no longer has any FE whatsoever. in all honesty, even calling with 23o isnt a very large leak at all.. holla

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Ugh, calling with 32o here is absolutely, 100% HORRIBLE. Chip EV, schmip EV, $EV-wise it's not close. Even if button hasn't looked at his cards, you're 33% here, more likely you're 30% to win the hand. If you (as the BB) fold, you're not as far behind the other short stack as you might think, as he's in the BB before you. You have enough chips where you can likely avoid a 3-way all-in if you do get a hand you like in the next couple, you have a shot at pushing on the short stack's BB if you like your UTG hand, and can always wait til your next BB to make a stand (are are going to better way better off %-wise to win on average than making a stand here (and winning, while giving you fewer chips than if you make a stand here, should give you some FE)).

Of the ~ 30% of the time you win, you still get 4th a % of the time. So...by calling with your 32o, you finsih 4th over 75% of the time. Your 1sts and 2nds do go up a bit, but not by that much, as you're still only in about a tie for 2nd, and you have shat for relative position on the (continuing) bubble (meaning the times you do suck out with your 32o, you'll often proceed to get chipped back down to shat).

Something like T8s or K4o against an aggressive-pushbot button, that's a completely different story (if you're like 45% to win or so). 32o or total shat hand, calling in the BB here is awful, and a major leak if you're doing it.

IMO/IME, of course.

[Exitonly]

Read the situation wrong. I'm an idiot.

[Michael C.]

Uhm, how is 23o a 4-1 dog against a random hand? I think you need to change the batteries in your calculator. ) /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Degen]

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Essentially folding here gives you an expected value of about $10-33 every time

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...according to ICM. Blind faith in what it tells you is an error IMHO. I don't have the sceitific evidence to prove that it does not work, but my intuition (from situations such as the OP) tells me that it has a solid chance of being wrong in places. I'm not saying its useless, just as prophecy is not useless...I just think it may not be the crystal ball that many people make it out to be.

I've been told things like this more times than I can count on this board, by 'respected' posters the majority of the time...and long term results have yet to prove me wrong in many an instance...such as this.

While others go bust and broke and complain of 'running cool' for long stretches and whine about bad beats (all while pledging allegiance to ICM and SNGPT and all things deemed SNG holy)...I continue to make a living.

[raptor517]

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i dont think its as much of a leak as you presume. button shoves, i fold, bb is looking at 1395 in the pot and needs to call 645, and is thus getting 2.16 to 1. not exactly terrible odds since he no longer has any FE whatsoever. in all honesty, even calling with 23o isnt a very large leak at all.. holla

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Ugh, calling with 32o here is absolutely, 100% HORRIBLE. Chip EV, schmip EV, $EV-wise it's not close. Even if button hasn't looked at his cards, you're 33% here, more likely you're 30% to win the hand. If you (as the BB) fold, you're not as far behind the other short stack as you might think, as he's in the BB before you. You have enough chips where you can likely avoid a 3-way all-in if you do get a hand you like in the next couple, you have a shot at pushing on the short stack's BB if you like your UTG hand, and can always wait til your next BB to make a stand (are are going to better way better off %-wise to win on average than making a stand here (and winning, while giving you fewer chips than if you make a stand here, should give you some FE)).

Of the ~ 30% of the time you win, you still get 4th a % of the time. So...by calling with your 32o, you finsih 4th over 75% of the time. Your 1sts and 2nds do go up a bit, but not by that much, as you're still only in about a tie for 2nd, and you have shat for relative position on the (continuing) bubble (meaning the times you do suck out with your 32o, you'll often proceed to get chipped back down to shat).

Something like T8s or K4o against an aggressive-pushbot button, that's a completely different story (if you're like 45% to win or so). 32o or total shat hand, calling in the BB here is awful, and a major leak if you're doing it.

IMO/IME, of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

gramps dont get me wrong i fold 23o here, lol. however, for the standard crap player is not a terribly -ev play to call any 2 here. and again let me restate, i dont condone calling with 23o here, im just saying how the math of it doesnt work out as horrible as it would appear.. holla

[Gramps]

No fair getting me worked up in my old age, then not playing along...

[raptor517]

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No fair getting me worked up in my old age, then not playing along...

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sorry sir wont happen again /images/graemlins/wink.gif holla