Lots of agression with a not so strong hand. [Archive]

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Spicymoose

11-13-2005, 07:06 PM

Just sat down, first hand. UTG here is a Super TAG, at 20.7.9.9/3.17 over 120 hands. Button here is LAG with 30/15/1.67 after only 20.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Hero posts a blind of $3.
UTG raises, 1 fold, Hero (poster) 3-bets, Button caps, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (16.33 SB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, BB folds, UTG caps, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (14.16 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
UTG calls $2 (All-In), Hero bets, Button calls.

River: (16.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 16.50 BB

Spicymoose

11-13-2005, 07:06 PM

I should probably fold preflop, as he is really tight, and he is UTG. If he raises 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs+, AJo+, KQo+, which is around 9.2% of his hands, I have about 41% equity. If we get a third caller, who has a similar range, we now have 25%. BB was 42/7 after only 14 hands.

But, given that I posted, playing was cheaper than usual, and I figured if I was playing, I should raise and try to limit the field.

When the flop comes, if Buttons capping range is 99+, ATs+, KJs+, AQo+, KQo, and BBs calling range is 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KJo+, I have 27% equity. Maybe I should try StellarWinds aproach of limp/reraising Buttons sure fire raise? If BB stays in, I have more than my share with 27%. But on the other hand, maybe I should raise, and hope Button 3-bets to knock out BB and raise my equity to around 35%. Since the pot is big, maybe protecting the hand with a raise stays the best approach.

When UTG caps the flop, I put him on QQ+, TT, 88, AhKh, AQs, AhJh, KJs, AQo, KJo, and button on TT+, AhKh, AQs, AhJh, KJs+, AQo+, KQo. This means that on the turn, I have only 13% equity. Basically that means about 6 outs, which seems reasonable, since looking at the board you would count 5 outs. You would discount some of the K outs probably because 2 pair wont always win, but you also have to significantly add in the fact that sometimes you are currently in the lead. So with my 13% equity, I own basically 1.8 BB of the pot.

But, I suddenly realize that UTG was all in, and so now I have to think about if I am ahead or behind him. When it is heads up, I only have 43% equity, and given his range I am way ahead of AK, AJ, KJ, JJ way behind AA, KK, QQ, TT, AQ. But some of the hands I am behind would raise themselves anyway, but will only call my turn raise. Also, some of the ones I am ahead of may take a free or cheap river.

This makes my sidebets with button a somewhat positive thing, even though I am fighting for a pot that I only have a slight equity of 1.8 BB in. This means I need to reevaluate on the river.

On the river I have 14% equity, or 1.84 BB of the main pot owed to me, so this is a sure call at least. Against just button, I have 49% equity, and I think I can get value out of AK, AJ, JJ, and occasionally KJ. KK, AQ, might bet anyways, but won't raise me that often. QQ and TT will, so I will lose 2 BB then, since I am calling a raise, but I don't think this is often enough to take away from all the value I'm getting from his worse hands. So, I think I should bet the river.

Spicymoose

11-14-2005, 04:54 AM

Sorry for responding to my own post with an extremely detailed analysis, but I wanted to see how well my analysis matched my actual play. Does anyone agree or disagree with either my actual hand, or my analysis?

For a simpler version, I am not sure whether I should fold, call, or 3-bet preflop (although I think calling is out of the question).

Also, I am pretty sure my turn bet is correct, but not positive.

Also, I think I should of bet the river.

Another question that could be asked is what do you do if the river is raised? It seems we are almost postively beat, but that we have to call just because of the size of the pot, and the fact that there are a few random holdings that we beat that button could decide to go crazy with.