river fold...mistake?

[WalkAmongUs]

Villain is 30/9/1.2 over 79 hands




Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $2. CO posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 (poster) checks, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (14.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: (9.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

River: (13.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

[Stealthy]

You probably are beat here but not over 90% of the time. I would check/call this river and I would expect to see a PP lower than Queens enough times to make it profitable.

Also raise pre-flop.

[WalkAmongUs]

i don't know if I should have called.

Nevermind. I was thinking of a different hand. I should have raised here.

Preflop: I generally like a raise here. You establish control and if the villain then reraised, it would have more meaning.

Turn: What might villain have? AA, KK, AQ are possible, but generally those are raised on the flop by this type of player. AK and AQ of spades are obviously not possible.

99 is very bad for you and is quite possible. You're ahead of JJ, TT but those are unlikely. If you call here, you should check/call the river unless you see a Q or K.

River: Not too much you could be possibly beat (JJ, TT, or small pocket pair as a semi-bluff) or tie (KQ) but I call here expecting to lose 90% of the time.

I think here the big decision is the turn.

[Vote4Pedro]

I disagree, PFRs who call Flop donk-bets, and raise the Turn are sitting on monsters. I would have suggested folding to the turn raise, but the pots big enough to draw to 2 purs or better. Imo, Check/Folding UI is the play

[Mathieu]

If you call the turn, I think you have to call the river as well.
There are not many hands you can beat, and if villain semi-bluffed the turn with an A high flush draw, he just outdrew you.

His turn raise looks like a slowplayed set, but this seems strange since the board was coordinated enough to encourage him to protect it.

I think I call the river because the pot is big and his play is strange enough to make me suspicious.

[WalkAmongUs]

He raised the turn card of 2. I figured he had at LEAST 2 pair.

[benkath1]

[ QUOTE ]
He check raised the turn card of 2. I figured he had at LEAST 2 pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not seeing the c/r on the turn. converter problems?

[WalkAmongUs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He check raised the turn card of 2. I figured he had at LEAST 2 pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not seeing the c/r on the turn. converter problems?

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant raised the turn card of 2. I shouldn't post while playing...

[Mathieu]

[ QUOTE ]
He check raised the turn card of 2. I figured he had at LEAST 2 pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he is very unlikely to have 2 pairs (would he raise Q9s??). I think he most likely has set since his play represents a monster. Do you think AA,KK,AQ are likely to slowplay this flop? I thinks this may be too unlikely to warrant calling the turn just with hopes of improving.

So I was thinking that if we call the turn it is mainly with hopes that he is getting out of line and that our hand is still good.

[WalkAmongUs]

I was just making the point that whatever he has...it beats me. But yeah, this smells like a set.

Here would be my preference on the river: check/call &gt; bet/fold &gt; check/fold

Here is my thinking: villain could be raising with a draw, turned raggedy two pair, slowplayed set or two pair. We would like to see what he donks with. It's worth calling a river bet to see this and make a note. It's a very nice pot. If he is donking the turn with the draw, we will have won 2 bets and learned what he donks with. Otherwise we will have paid 2 bets to see if he is the classic set slow-player. My default play is to pay off in these big pots as you can generally get valuable information if you don't win the nice pot.

Preflop call...mistake.

raise preflop and the hand plays differently