View Full Version : A Goldmine? the winning combination?
Hi,
Lets say you start playing Roulette. lets forget the green one, this is just a scenario. its strictly 50-50% for hitting black / red. if you bet 100 dollar 10.000 times, you will end up with whopping 0$ in income. but...
If you start with.. well.. lets say 100.000 dollars. And you start betting 100 dollar. If you dont win, you double the bet (200) , so if you win (400), you will get back the money you lost at the first bet (100) and the 200 you just bet, and still have 100 to go. After a win, you go back to 100 again.
In short, you double the amount you betted IF you lost the previous bet. Start with 100 dollar again when you win.
The only reason you can lose on, as i can see it, - is the fact that the price you have to bet after losing 10 times is pretty high. 100,200,400,800,1600,3200,6400,12800, 25600, 52000 dollar ... /images/graemlins/smile.gif However. it is a 0.086% chance you will lose 10 times on a row IF there is 50-50 on black/red.
Is there some reason this wont work? and what is it?
I guess this have been testet 100ths of times , so somebody probably know why this "strategy" doesnt work.
Thanks for your time. /images/graemlins/smile.gif
kruschel
11-13-2005, 01:08 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Is there some reason this wont work? and what is it?
[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
However. it is a 0.086% chance you will lose 10 times on a row IF there is 50-50 on black/red.
[/ QUOTE ]
Are you serious? If it's a 50-50 game then EV = 0 no matter what "strategy" you use.
Plus, there's usually a "cap" on how much you can bet on one hand.
Even if there's no cap, the house probably has you covered.
[ QUOTE ]
Are you serious? If it's a 50-50 game then EV = 0 no matter what "strategy" you use.
Plus, there's usually a "cap" on how much you can bet on one hand.
Even if there's no cap, the house probably has you covered.
[/ QUOTE ]
Well, prove it to me. i agree if you bet 100dollar each time, then the EV will be 0. but not when you DOUBLE the bet each time you lose.
solucky
11-13-2005, 01:20 PM
The problem is that you reach earlier or later the max bet and lose that. Sure you win 10 000 times 5$ and than you lose 1 time 50 000. The same Strategy is to play 30 from the 36 numbers with 30$ you win 5$ any time if you lose you bet 180$ / win 30 if you lose 1080 /win 180. I had days that i dont lose the whole evening /images/graemlins/cool.gif, but it is -EV
pudley4
11-13-2005, 01:22 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Hi,
Lets say you start playing Roulette. lets forget the green one, this is just a scenario. its strictly 50-50% for hitting black / red. if you bet 100 dollar 10.000 times, you will end up with whopping 0$ in income. but...
If you start with.. well.. lets say 100.000 dollars. And you start betting 100 dollar. If you dont win, you double the bet (200) , so if you win (400), you will get back the money you lost at the first bet (100) and the 200 you just bet, and still have 100 to go. After a win, you go back to 100 again.
In short, you double the amount you betted IF you lost the previous bet. Start with 100 dollar again when you win.
The only reason you can lose on, as i can see it, - is the fact that the price you have to bet after losing 10 times is pretty high. 100,200,400,800,1600,3200,6400,12800, 25600, 52000 dollar ... /images/graemlins/smile.gif However. it is a 0.086% chance you will lose 10 times on a row IF there is 50-50 on black/red.
Is there some reason this wont work? and what is it?
I guess this have been testet 100ths of times , so somebody probably know why this "strategy" doesnt work.
Thanks for your time. /images/graemlins/smile.gif
[/ QUOTE ]
Amazing. You've figured out an easy way to make money! And no one else in the history of the world has even stumbled on this - you must be a genius! I suggest you fly to vegas immediately and implement this system. You gotta be quick though, before the casinos read this post and figure out your strategy.
kruschel
11-13-2005, 01:25 PM
If you didn't get it, here it is again:
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is there some reason this wont work? and what is it?
[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
However. it is a 0.086% chance you will lose 10 times on a row IF there is 50-50 on black/red.
[/ QUOTE ]
[/ QUOTE ]
You basically answered the question yourself.
Lets round your chance of losing everything in 10 straight bets to 0.1%.
You will win your $100 999 of 1000 times, and you will lose $100000 one time out of 1000. Thats an EV of 0.
That was oversimplified, of course, but I hope you get the idea.
just2pimp
11-13-2005, 01:25 PM
This system is called martingale, and it doesn't work because of the table caps. The theory of it works your right, but you can't do it for real.
[ QUOTE ]
This system is called martingale, and it doesn't work because of the table caps. The theory of it works your right, but you can't do it for real.
[/ QUOTE ]
Okay.. ic.. Thanks for your answer. /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Well the answer of my own question can be found here:
http://www.ildado.com/martingale_system.html
so i guess case is closed /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Skipbidder
11-13-2005, 04:42 PM
[ QUOTE ]
This system is called martingale, and it doesn't work
[/ QUOTE ]
You'd have been fine if you stopped right there, but no...
[ QUOTE ]
because of the table caps.
[/ QUOTE ]
It isn't the table caps. The system wouldn't work even with no table caps.
[ QUOTE ]
The theory of it works your right, but you can't do it for real.
[/ QUOTE ]
No system can change a negative expectation wager into a positive expectation one.
Degen
11-13-2005, 06:06 PM
You are welcome in my casino anytime young man
-Steve Wynn
J Chap
11-14-2005, 04:31 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Is there some reason this wont work? and what is it?
[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
lets forget the green one.
[/ QUOTE ]
you answered your own question. that's exactly why they have the green one(s).
J Chap
11-14-2005, 04:32 AM
...and this delightfully-condescending post has officially made me a member of 2+2!
how shamefully fitting!
ThinkQuick
11-14-2005, 05:23 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This system is called martingale, and it doesn't work
[/ QUOTE ]
You'd have been fine if you stopped right there, but no...
[ QUOTE ]
because of the table caps.
[/ QUOTE ]
It isn't the table caps. The system wouldn't work even with no table caps.
[ QUOTE ]
The theory of it works your right, but you can't do it for real.
[/ QUOTE ]
No system can change a negative expectation wager into a positive expectation one.
[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks skip, everything I wanted to say!
Its called the Martingale System. Its a betting strategy based on two things: 1) You have an infinite bankroll. 2) There is no table maximum bet.
and 3) that 00 is not on the wheel.
jman220
11-16-2005, 01:07 PM
[ QUOTE ]
This system is called martingale, and it doesn't work because of the table caps. The theory of it works your right, but you can't do it for real.
[/ QUOTE ]
Even if there weren't table caps it wouldn't work.
Edit: It is however a great way to bonuswhore casinos that won't ban you for doing it.
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