$50+5: 3 left, A7s on button, M=3.6

[Toopskees]

Would appreciate your approach to this situation. Party $55 SNG. Down to final three.

SB T680
BB T6510
Hero T2210

Blinds just went up to 200/400. BB has made some marginal calls. Hero gets A7s. Correct play?

Push it. A7s is a great hand to open with 3-handed. Folding would mean you're looking to sneak into 2nd with almost no shot at 1st, and thats not what you want.

My guess is you pushed, SB folded and BB called you with QJ or something and won.

[tigerite]

M, this, M, that. Blah [censored]ing blah. It's a push, obviously. I can tell that without doing a single ICM calc or giving a flying [censored] what M has to say about it.

[bigt439]

Raise to 2000. Fold to a push.

[The Don]

Easy push, too lazy to do any calculations but I am almost postive that it is +$EV, regardless of the BBs range. As a general rule, I almost never play for 2nd. I can remember maybe 2 or 3 times in my career when I have.

This would be the certain fold so make sure of the 2nd place. Easy desision. What is this M?

[handsome]

This is the easiest push ever.

[Toopskees]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise to 2000. Fold to a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero only started out with 2210, so a raise to 2000 is out of the question.

What happened: Hero pushed, SB folded, BB called with KQ and caught a K.

[KingDan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise to 2000. Fold to a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero only started out with 2210, so a raise to 2000 is out of the question.

What happened: Hero pushed, SB folded, BB called with KQ and caught a K.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising 2k gives you a chance to steal blinds, but if played back with gives you a chance to try to fold into second.

I hate to be contrary, but if SB only calls with TT+, AQs+ and BB calls any two, this is -1.0% $EV. BB has to be folding about half the time to make this break-even, and about 70% of the time to hit the +.5% EV threshold.

Open-folding here is actually slightly +$EV, presumably because shorty is just too short to matter at the moment. Double him up at BB's expense and leave the positions the same, and this is an easy push.

Against a BB that's reasonably loose (or with a SB who's too tight), I'd fold this most of the time and worry about attacking the SB.

I've noticed that sometimes in situations like this, BB will spite call a push more often with a marginal-looking hand (like say QJo) than he will if the raise looks more "normal". I don't do it much, but I wonder if a smaller raise might get more folds, and hence be more +EV. You'd still have to call a re-steal, of course.

[Askilus]

[ QUOTE ]
What is this M?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a theory Harringon describes in his books. M is your stack divided by SB + BB + antes. It gives you a number of how many rounds you can last, and given that he propose different strategies. But it applies to MTT:s not STT:s.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What is this M?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a theory Harringon describes in his books. M is your stack divided by SB + BB + antes. It gives you a number of how many rounds you can last, and given that he propose different strategies. But it applies to MTT:s not STT:s.

[/ QUOTE ]

The general theory applies to both, it's just not especially useful in an ITM situation in a SNG (which is more like a final table in an MTT). There are completely different considerations at play.

[Toopskees]

[ QUOTE ]
But it applies to MTT:s not STT:s.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why wouldn't it apply to STTs? What is the difference between a final table of 10 players and a single table tournament that started with 10 players? The concept is based on the ratio of your chip stack to the blinds, and how you should play based on this ratio. That should be independent of how many players started the tournament.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What is this M?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a theory Harringon describes in his books. M is your stack divided by SB + BB + antes. It gives you a number of how many rounds you can last, and given that he propose different strategies. But it applies to MTT:s not STT:s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks you. No wonder I have not heard of this M if not applies to the single game.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But it applies to MTT:s not STT:s.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why wouldn't it apply to STTs? What is the difference between a final table of 10 players and a single table tournament that started with 10 players? The concept is based on the ratio of your chip stack to the blinds, and how you should play based on this ratio. That should be independent of how many players started the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just one example, but in a 10-handed SNG, 3 places pay. In the final table of an MTT all 10 places pay (typically). This changes the $EV of any given move significantly.

Similarly, at the beginning of an STT you're way closer to the money than you are at the beginning of an MTT. This tends to mean that you should be willing to take fewer risks in the beginning of an STT than an MTT.

[Toopskees]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising 2k gives you a chance to steal blinds, but if played back with gives you a chance to try to fold into second.

[/ QUOTE ]

With blinds at 200/400, Hero would be all-in next hand in the BB and would have no leverage. The current short stack could then fold HIS way into second. Hero pushed to try to win the tournament.

[Toopskees]

Thanks. What you say makes sense.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raising 2k gives you a chance to steal blinds, but if played back with gives you a chance to try to fold into second.

[/ QUOTE ]

With blinds at 200/400, Hero would be all-in next hand in the BB and would have no leverage. The current short stack could then fold HIS way into second. Hero pushed to try to win the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

With blinds at 200/400 Hero's got some wiggle room, he's got less than 20% of his stack in next hand (unless you're referring to the raise 2000 and fold to a push idea, which I hope was posted sarcastically since it's clearly insane). Moreover, he'll have shorty effectively all-in the hand after that, with basically a 50-50 chance of knocking him out (probably more, since big stack may take him out some of the time).

It's far from a great position, since shorty could just as easily double up and make it back into a battle for 2nd, but it's not quite bad enough to make pushing A7s correct against a villain who's known to make marginal calls.

First of all, M can be applied to any tournament you play in regardless of the amount of players.

I think you come in for come in for 800 (the min) to 1000. Will the big stack be more willing to fold to a min. raise or a raise of 1000 ? If the SB calls you are happy to race him here when you are most likely the favorite. If the BB calls be prepared to follow through with a continuation bet. If your flop bet is called, give up the hand. You'll be about the same size as the SB now and have a chance to race your next hand. Now if you think the chip leader going to call your raise the majority of the time no matter what then your best shot is just to move in. If the blinds were at 100/200 and you felt very confident against the chip leader heads up then I would consider waiting.

Either way my reasoning for being fairly aggressive here has to do with the SNG prize structure. When you are down to the final 3 moving up and getting second will only earn you another 10%, but gambling for first could earn you an extra HUGE 30%. THIS is why I change gears late in the tournament with only 3 left. Generally, even if there is a short stacked player. Hope this helps.

Keith

[chekraze]

i'd push it or raise a thoughtful amount ($1500 or so) so it looks like u really thought about what u are doing. u don't want that spite call.

re:M - harrington says when it's down to that few players u have to calculate the "Effective M" which would be 3/10 times your 3.6# u came up with. so about 1.2 is what it is. not as useful a stat here as compared to a full ring 10 player circumstance.

[caretaker1]

ICM has this very close, depends on the calling standards of both stacks. At Min. Edge >.01, all-in. Also, your chip count seems off.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, your chip count seems off.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has already subtracted the blind.

[caretaker1]

Doh, now to redo. TY

Just redone, ICM says push, although it is close.

[Waynomo]

[ QUOTE ]
THIS is why I change gears late in the tournament with only 3 left. Generally, even if there is a short stacked player.

Keith

[/ QUOTE ]

So how do you change gears? What do you do differently?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
M, this, M, that. Blah [censored]ing blah. It's a push, obviously. I can tell that without doing a single ICM calc or giving a flying [censored] what M has to say about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aw come on dude, you ruined a great post with censor bypass!

Since its so close to break-even EV i would definatly push. When im ITM i will always go for the first place - so this looks like a good spot to gamble IMHO.

Anyway i only play 22SnG's and im new, so feel free to ignore me. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

*Waves Hello*