Standard Deviation of Bank Roll

[PuppetMaster]

First off, I would like to introduce myself to the people on the forums. I am a long time reader, 11 time poster.

I just started playing hold'em online about 2 monthes ago. I play mostly tournaments. I also wager on sports. One thing I have noticed is that the standard deviation of my bankroll is fairly large in consideration to the size of my bankroll. I will often place in the money in 8 of 10 tournaments, and then precede to lose 4 in a row.

I am curious if this is normal, or an indication that I "go on tilt" or change my style when I am losing or winning. Is it just a matter of coincidence? I would love to hear opinions on this matter.

[Copernicus]

Do you really mean the standard deviation of your bankroll? I'm not sure thats a meaningful number. Two players with the same bankroll and the same return in terms of % of the tourney buy in will have different bankroll-based SD's if they play at different stakes. I would look at SD's of your profit and loss as a % of the buy-in (i.e the SD of your return on investment). In my experience that should be fairly stable, especially compared to ring game SD's of BB's/hour. A run of 8/10 in the money followed up by 4 straight outs is not all that surprising if your average result is that of what I would consider a good one table tourney player, which is 15-20% ROI.

If you are the teddykgbxxx (but a different number than here, I forget the right one) that has been in a lot of $30 and $50's at party recently, my notes on you rate your play as very solid except in one particular situation, and I am cautious against your large bets. (You wont recognize my name here, because it is not my online name). If I remember right you finished in the money when I finished 2d in a tourney where I was down to T70 and got a phenomenal run of hands.

If you want to know the exception to your solid play, you can send my usual fee (I'll figure out what that is if you write back) to me at Paypal. /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Are you playing multi-table tournaments or 1 or 2 table sit-and-go's?

[PuppetMaster]

I do not play multi tables, only single table tournaments.
My question is this, how can I win 6 tournaments in a row and then lose 4 in a row. Is it just a coincidence? I ahve gone on runs where in 4 days I place in the money of 75% of my tournies and then lose 13 straight. This seems a little odd, I am wondering if it may be my mindset, or if this is just normal. Another thing is I almost never break even, its always alot of winning or alot of losing. I know that there has to be some variance, however I am just curious of everyone elses variance. I mgiht be using the wrong math terms.

[Prickly Pete]

Well, if you're cashing in on 8 out of 14 tourneys (or something similar), I wouldn't worry too much about the standard deviations of the bankroll. The bottom line is it will be going up overall. That is, of course, if you can resist the urge to bet 2 months' winnings on the Mets tonight. /forums/images/icons/blush.gif

[Prickly Pete]

I play a lot of sit n gos too. And I think streaks are just part of the equation. I don't think you said where you play, but if you play at Party where you only get 800 chips, you are forced into a lot of those 50-50 situations. And streaks (good and bad) will certainly occur.

I'd focus more on the longer term - are you profitable? If so, then great. Also, I would try to focus on how you play during the losing streaks. Are you steaming at times because of the previous tourney's bad beat? If so, that's a problem. I know it's something I try to discipline myself not to do.

[PuppetMaster]

The main problem is tough beats and not getting action. I am currently on a losing streak of my last 13 games.
10 out of the money: 1 2nd place: 2 3rd place.

When I'm winning I look at the game like the cards don't matter, I can feel it, the cards dont even matter.
When Im losing I feel the complete opposite. I get dealt AA and already know its gonna get cracked by 56o.
In these 14 games I haven't had a flush or a boat. What the hell??? My best hand has been a damn straight.
Today I got AA in the small blind, everyone folds to me, I raise the minimum and BB folds. Then I get KK in BB, everyone folds to me. I won't say I'm on tilt, Im just really fustrated at this crap.
I have looked over my hands and in one game I got knocked out in the thrid round. My strongest hand dealt to me was JTo. The flop comes JT2. The result, I go all in to someone with q2. They call and here comes the bitch of spades.

[Copernicus]

What do you mean by "never break even, ...a lot of winning, losing"? If you mean that you tend to flush out early or go into the last few levels with a lot of chips, that is related to my comment on my notes on you!

Again, though, I don't think the streaks you are seeing are unusal. Assume that when you finish in the money, you are finishing 1st, 2d and 3rd equally. That means your profits are averaging 2 times the buy-in, and an in the money % of 60% (twice what random results would give you) gives you an ROI of 20%.

Your "in the money" finishes then are a binomial distribution with p=.6. Your results of 8 wins in 12 attempts then has a probability of 21%. (Of course the probability of 8 consecutive wins follwed by 4 consecutive losses...that specific pattern...is quite low, about .043%).

When it gets down to 4 or 5 players at a table where the stacks are fairly level (the top stack is less than 2x the bottom stack), and the blinds are still reasonable compared to the stacks, whether or not you make it to the final 3 is an awful lot of luck. The results of swing hands are going to be pretty close to random. Get caught with KK vs AA, or have the AK that called your QQ river you, get a really bad call and beat once in a while...and voila 4 tournament losses in a row.

Of course there may be non-random things going on, not related to your play. Eg I find the morning tournaments much more difficult than say 9 PM-1 AM or 1:30 eastern. I rarely find someone calling an early round all-in with a low pair in the morning, for example,but it happens a lot in the above time frame. Weekdays vs weekends there are also differences. You get to know the regulars also..lokiman, Eastle come to mind...and should expect that your average results are going to go down facing them.

[DrShankem]

Hey Teddy I know exactly what your talking about. I am really new to the poker scene and I play in the lower sit and go tourneys at Party Poker. I think I have seen you on there before but with a different number at the end. Anyways, I have gone on streaks where I am in the money in 9 out of ten tourneys, but then can't get in the money in the next 5 I play in. I think it is partly bad luck and partly just a bad decision on my part to keep hammering away at it when I am catching a streak of cold cards. If you are consistently having success then hit a bad streak like the one your on then I would take a break for a day or two, something which is hard for me to do, and wait for things to turn around and refocus. Good luck.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Next question. Where do you play?

Tourneys are a streaky way to make a living. Each individual tournament is a short-term snapshot, where luck plays a big factor. If you're playing on Party, with 800 in starting chips and 10 hand intervals, that luck factor is magnified. At paradise, the extra 200 in chips helps, but I'd suggest 'Stars with its timed intervals and more starting chips.

[PuppetMaster]

I pretty much know I have to hang in there and play smart, however; I can make an analogy to basketball, right now all the loose balls and bounces are going the other way.

[Copernicus]

After seeing your 3:05 PM post, two words come to mind..."Thats poker".

That, in fact,is why I like tourneys better than ring games. Good chip management is a huge factor, and can offset some nasty runs of cards and bad beats. It can't overcome them all of the time, but when you lose 1600 TC to the fool who called your AA all in with 56o and rivered the two pair, its only $33 or $55, not the $150-$200 it would cost you in a 5-10 game.

As someone in this or an earlier thread commented...the worst hand out there is only a 3-1 dog against a random hand. Some take that as a license to call with anything that looks reasonable so they can double through and get back into or on top of the stacks.

Glad I missed your run this morning, those kinds of calls frustrate me too....even though I know in the long run that they are the people paying for the hookers and drugs, and even the frivilous things I spend money on. (sorry I couldnt resist stealing that line).

[PuppetMaster]

***** Hand History for Game 83499706 *****
30/60 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (Tournament 462993) - Mon Jun 23 16:34:03 EDT 2003
Table Card Room Table 1143 (Real Money) -- Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 1: Harrier (665)
Seat 3: Blue58 (1400)
Seat 5: PurpleJesus (1140)
Seat 7: haystak (1245)
Seat 8: Chefboomer (1560)
Seat 9: teddykgb1056 (1460)
Seat 10: WHAAAAAAAT (530)
PurpleJesus posts small blind (15)
haystak posts big blind (30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to teddykgb1056 [ Jd, Js ]
Chefboomer raises (60) to 60
teddykgb1056 calls (60)
WHAAAAAAAT calls (60)
Harrier folds.
Blue58 folds.
PurpleJesus calls (45)
haystak calls (30)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Jc, Qd, Qs ]
PurpleJesus bets (100)
haystak folds.
Chefboomer raises (1500) to 1500
Chefboomer calls all-In.
teddykgb1056 calls (1400)
teddykgb1056 calls all-In.
WHAAAAAAAT folds.
PurpleJesus calls (980)
PurpleJesus calls all-In.
Dealing : [ 3d, 9c ]
Creating Main Pot with $3540 with PurpleJesus
Creating Side Pot 1 with $640 with teddykgb1056
Creating Side Pot 2 with $100 with Chefboomer
** Summary **
Main Pot: 3540 | Side Pot 1: 640 | Side Pot 2: 100
Board: [ Jc Qd Qs 3d 9c ]
Harrier balance 665, didn't bet (folded)
Blue58 balance 1400, didn't bet (folded)
PurpleJesus balance 0, lost 1140 [ Qc Td ] [ three of a kind, queens -- Qc,Qd,Qs,Jc,Td ]
haystak balance 1185, lost 60 (folded)
Chefboomer balance 100, bet 1560, collected 100, lost -1460 [ Kd Jh ] [ two pairs, queens and jacks -- Kd,Qd,Qs,Jh,Jc ]
teddykgb1056 balance 4180, bet 1460, collected 4180, net +2720 [ Jd Js ] [ a full house, Jacks full of queens -- Qd,Qs,Jd,Js,Jc ]
WHAAAAAAAT balance 470, lost 60 (folded)
PurpleJesus finished in seventh place

[Copernicus]

What world was Chefboomer playing in? He goes all in with bottom pair and an overcard, all pictures, and a stack that doesnt dominate?

I can understand the trip Qs being hard to get away from since he's last in and knows he can triple his stack, although the T kicker is questionable. I'd want the protection of an A or K in case there is another Q out there.