Poorly Played All the Way or Just Unlucky?

[RBergs]

About 45 people left in a tournament that started with about 90. I'm chip leader at my table, holding 5500 in chips, blinds are 100-200, average at the table is around 1500. I am in the small blind with Q /forums/images/icons/spade.gif J /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif . UTG goes all-in for 600. Folded around to me. Big Blind is 2nd chip leader with 3500. He is fairly tight aggressive, not playing very many hands unless he has a high pocket pair or two high cards. I call the 600. He calls behind.

Flop comes K /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif Q /forums/images/icons/club.gif 4 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif

I check. He bets 300 into the dry side pot (main pot is 1800). I call.

Turn is J /forums/images/icons/spade.gif

I check. He bets 500, I raise all-in. He calls.

Comments? Play on each street and what the Big Blind was holding?

Results and my own rationale to follow. Thanks.

[DaNoob]

I would either raise all-in or muck pre-flop. QJ is not a terribly strong hand, especially with 2 more seeing the flop. My guess is that he was holding either AT or K4s, although KJ or 44 are also very possible.

[PuppetMaster]

He could have a number of hands. My guess is KJ. I dont see him calling with K4s. There really are alot of hands he could have had.

[DKNY]

I would fold pre-flop. QJ isn't a great hand against someone who's all-in. why let UTG double up. More importantly BB hasn't acted and he has position on you and can put a hurt on your stack.

Your all-in on the turn is even worse, you're risking your whole stack for the side pot. I'm guessing BB has at least KJ to call your all-in.

[fnurt]

I think these responses are not entirely fair because all of us know that BB called the all-in bet, and we also know that this became a post on 2+2 which usually means something bad happened.

The poster made 2 pair on the turn, heads up as far as the side pot is concerned, and assumed it was good. I confess I would have assumed the same thing. Obviously he COULD be beat, but can anyone really say BB wouldn't have bet the flop and turn unless he had at least kings up?

I agree that I probably would not call preflop. I certainly wouldn't raise to isolate because, well, why is QJ a hand you want to isolate with? UTG only has 3x the BB and could be raising with any number of crappy hands, however, I still don't see the urgency of calling to try and bust him out here. With 45 people still alive you don't gain anything by eliminating a player so I would just muck the QJ.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Sorry to say, poorly played.

Preflop, this is a pretty clear fold. Even if the UTG player is so desperate that he would raise here with any two cards, you don't have all that much equity by calling. Since most players need MORE than just any two in this spot, against a typical player I would say you're breaking even with this call, maybe even losing a little.

And all of that ignores the big blind.

Since he has chips, once you flat call, he can now overcall with a lot of hands, as he is getting a shot at 1400 for 400, and will have position on you the rest of the hand. Thus, I think his presence reduces your equity rather than increases it. Because of this, you should fold preflop.

However, if there are a lot of hands you think he would play for 400 more that he will fold for 1000 more, then raise another 600 and get him to fold those hands (if you're going to play at all, I still think a fold is the better choice).

Now the flop comes. Second pair, good kicker. Checking is fine, as long as you're doing so because his check or bet (and the amount thereof) is likely to be informative. Here he makes a very small bet. What does it mean? Is he milking you because he has a big hand, or is he protecting a hand that he thinks is best (even though it's weak, e.g., 88) because he figures you'll fold for 300 as fast as for 1200? Does he assume your check is total weakness, and he's bluffing because he thinks he can do so safely? Personally, against an unknown player, I would think this is most likely a milk bet, and that he thinks he has by far the best hand right now.

Check-raising the turn. The only hand you're now beating that I see calling here is AK and possibly QT or JT. AT and sets don't go away, and I hardly see Ks up folding either. If he's got a hand you're beating, although he could have 12 outs (i.e., AK), he most likely has 2-5 outs, and as such I would prefer to flat call here and induce another bluff on the river. Also, if you call here, and the river is a brick, he might check a hand like Ks up and save you some chips.

I hope you posted this because you won and everybody gave you grief about the hand, rather than because you lost to AT or something.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[clovenhoof]

I think it's safe to say that he lost the hand, or else "just unlucky" wouldn't be in the title.

My opinion is a little different than everybody else's, probably because as a player, I really suck, but here it is.

I disagree with those who say to fold the hand. When you're the chip leader, you want to have an intimidating image, and here's an opportunity to help promote it at a relatively low cost, so my first choice would be to raise out the BB. Beyond that, calling and folding are about equally attractive.

Once you see the flop, checking "for information" is a terrible play; I would suggest making a bet, and being prepared to dump the hand if you're raised. I suspect that you may not be giving BB enough credit -- he didn't get that many chips by accident, so I think his range of possible hands, at the point of you checking and him betting, is wider than you might think. In other words, betting on the flop might make him lay down, and if he calls or raises, that's a better indicator of strength than if he bets when you check.

Finally, the all-in bet was a terrible decision, win or lose. As someone else mentioned, there are very few hands he can call with that you can beat, and probably no hands he'd fold that are better than yours. More importantly, at that stage of the tournament, with that many chips, you don't want to go to war with other big stacks without a big hand. And a big hand ain't what you got.

My guess is he had pocket 4's. (But remember, I know nothing.)

'hoof

[jaydoggie]

my guess is KT, and he rivers the straight. UTG mucks, STR8 takes down the entire pot. :\

[RBergs]

Well, thanks for all your input, and I agree with most of you that I played the hand terribly. I should have just folded pre-flop and been done with it. I never should have bothered to get involved. I just got too greedy, and it ended up costing me big-time.

As most of you have guessed, the big blind turned over K /forums/images/icons/heart.gif J /forums/images/icons/heart.gif for two pair, and I was just drawing to 2 outs. I didn't hit on the river, but funny enough, UTG did, as a T /forums/images/icons/heart.gif hit, giving him the nut straight (he held A /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 6 /forums/images/icons/club.gif). I busted out of the tournament a few rounds later on the following hand: Q /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 2 /forums/images/icons/club.gif from the big blind. 5 callers around. I check. Flop comes Q /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 7 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 2 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif , I move all-in for my last 1500 in chips, turns out someone in middle position had called with 8 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 3 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif . But I had really cost myself already with the hand I posted.

My rationale at the time was that pre-flop, I just didn't think the big blind was going to call because he had been folding so many hands. Even then, my play is questionable, but I clearly wasn't thinking rationally. On the flop, I put him on a weak King when he bet 300 and decided that I was probably ahead of UTG. I was going to check-fold the turn unless a Jack or a Queen hit, and lo and behold my supposed money card hits, but of course I was foolish and paid the price.

Thanks to everyone for their posts, mostly confirming my own regrets about my mistakes in this situation.