trips flops twice in a row

[dark_horse]

last night in a live game the flop came KKK twice in a row. regardless of suit, what's are the odds against this happening?

[hedgeyerbets]

((4/52)*(3/51)*(2/50))^2 for just kings
(52/52)*(3/51)*(2/50)*(4/52)*(3/51)*(2/50) for the same trips ignoring suit twice in a row
((3/51)*(2/50))^2 for any trips on consecutive hands

[dark_horse]

so what's that, dude?

[LetYouDown]

For K-K-K to flop twice in a row, knowing none of the cards:

[C(4,3)/C(52,3)]^2 = .00000327% or 30,525,624 to 1

If it's already flopped once, the odds of it happening on the next hand are:

C(4,3)/C(52,3) or ~.0181% or 5524 to 1.

[hedgeyerbets]

there's this thing on your computer... search for calculator.exe

[dark_horse]

someone already did the work for me, but good lookin out.

[LetYouDown]

[ QUOTE ]
there's this thing on your computer... search for calculator.exe

[/ QUOTE ]
Actually, it's calc.exe. Try to be correct when you're trying to be witty.

[hedgeyerbets]

i renamed it.

[Artsemis]

[ QUOTE ]
i renamed it.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you tell him to search his computer for the name you renamed yours to?
Dont bother trying.

[dark_horse]

[ QUOTE ]
So you tell him to search his computer for the name you renamed yours to? Dont bother trying.

[/ QUOTE ]

nh

Even better than calc.exe, is the google math facility. For combinatorials use the operator "choose".

See here (http://www.google.com/help/calculator.html) for details.

[dark_horse]

but doesn't anyone think it's cool that i witnessed a 1 in 30.5 million event?

No, on the average there will be one such occurence every 30.5 million hands. And many such rare different events do occurs in a long sequence. The reason you find it remarkable is just because you impose (from the outside) a special code on the cards (ie the rules of hand ranking in poker). But the cards are just that, cards, they don't know, don't care what value they display and they don't know anything about poker. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Just to make my previous post clearer with concrete example.

Take any 4 cards (ie h5, d8, sJ and cK, for instance). There are also about 1 chance in 32 millions that two hands in succesion will have at least 3 of those cards. Yet, you would probably not even notice this "rare" event.

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[hedgeyerbets]

dude - the sarcasm meter a bit broken today?

only a man with his head up his mathematical, well, ahem, would, on seeing a trillion to one event, shrug and equate it with the probability of finding two legs on a biped.

here's one you could maybe answer: what are the odds of being dealt KK twice in succession, and being beaten by AA twice in that succession?

[LetYouDown]

[ QUOTE ]
only a man with his head up his mathematical, well, ahem, would, on seeing a trillion to one event, shrug and equate it with the probability of finding two legs on a biped.

[/ QUOTE ]
Go watch a roulette wheel for 20 minutes.

[ QUOTE ]
here's one you could maybe answer: what are the odds of being dealt KK twice in succession, and being beaten by AA twice in that succession?

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless there's an error in my thinking:

[C(4,2)/C(52,2) * [9 * 6/C(50,2) - C(9,2)/C(50,4)] * .819461] ^ 2

~.00000265% or about 37,696,253.7 to 1.

thanks.

i had that happen to me last week. i went immediately to my nearest roulette wheel and gaped.