Stud 8 - Day 2, Hand 2

[Aaron W.]

Is 6th street a value bet when he checks to me holding an exposed pair? Is it worth throwing in a raise on the river since I've got the lock on low?

7 Card Stud High-Low ($0.25/$0.50), Ante $0.05, Bring-In $0.10 (converter (http://j.1asphost.com/greenage))

3rd Street - (1.60 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx T/images/graemlins/club.gif___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif___brings-in
Seat 3: xx xx K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___folds
Hero: 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif___calls
Seat 6: xx xx T/images/graemlins/heart.gif___calls
Seat 7: xx xx J/images/graemlins/heart.gif___calls
Seat 8: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___calls

4th Street - (4.40 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx T/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif___checks
Hero: 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif___checks
Seat 5: xx xx 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif___checks
Seat 6: xx xx T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif___checks
Seat 7: xx xx J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif___checks
Seat 8: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif___checks

5th Street - (2.20 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___folds
Hero: 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif___folds
Seat 6: xx xx T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif___folds
Seat 7: xx xx J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif___folds
Seat 8: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif___bets

6th Street - (4.20 BB)

Hero: 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___checks
Seat 8: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___checks

River - (4.20 BB)

Hero: 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif___calls
Seat 8: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif xx___bets

Total pot: (6.20 BB)

Check sixth, raise seventh (you are freerolling for high).

[Backstabr]

Your call on fifth may be a too thin: two 4s and a 9 are dead, and the pot is small. Run some calculations on twodimes.net to figure out if calling is right.

Otherwise, just fine.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Your call on fifth may be a too thin: two 4s and a 9 are dead, and the pot is small. Run some calculations on twodimes.net to figure out if calling is right.

Otherwise, just fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your analysis fails to consider that I've got lots of two pair scooping chances if he has only a pair of queens. Here are the numbers based on what he actually had:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1341907
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s8 8d 6h 7c 6s 5h - ts 2d qd ah qc / 2h 8h 6d 9s 5c 4c th 2s 3h jh 4s 5s
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
6s 7c 8d 6h 5h 244858 244858 255142 0 258805 0 0 0.633
Ts Qc Qd 2d Ah 112288 255142 244858 0 0 0 0 0.367

If I give him two pair, I'm basically even money:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1341920
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s8 8d 6h 7c 6s 5h - 2c 2d qd ah qc / 2h 8h 6d 9s 5c 4c th 2s 3h jh 4s 5s
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
6s 7c 8d 6h 5h 168472 168472 331528 0 234720 0 0 0.489
Qc 2c Qd 2d Ah 179328 331528 168472 0 0 0 0 0.511

[benwood]

3rd:I like the completion here. Get rid of those middle cards behind you, & you may scoop this puppy. 4th: What? No bet? what happened to your aggression? 6th:I would bet it . He's more likely to be checking 1 pr than a better hand. It must be right to pop him on the river with the lock. Nothing bad can happen.

[goofball]

Not raising the river is a large error. I think the bet on 6th is fine on equity alone. Unbeatable low draw, OESD, a hand that could easily be best anyway, you ahve too many things going for you not to bet.