Totally out of control - QQ

[StellarWind]

5/10 6-max (6-handed)

UTG is 31/15 and really combative postflop. This is a small site where we play a lot of hands together and I've had some problems with him pushing me around.

Cutoff is a 53/25 total LAG.

SB is a typical 73/16 whose postflop play consists primarily of betting out when he can and calling when someone else gets there first.

Hero is BB with Q /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

UTG raises, Cutoff coldcalls, SB coldcalls, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, all call.

Flop (16 SB): T /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, UTG raises, Cutoff calls, SB 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG caps, all call.

I didn't take UTG's preflop cap too seriously because he likes to have the last word and when SB bet out my gut feeling was that UTG would autoraise. So I decided to go for the call-raise. But SB's 3-bet really scared me and things spiraled out of control. You can judge the rest of the hand for yourself.

Turn (16 BB): 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, UTG raises, Cutoff folds, SB 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG caps, SB calls all-in, Hero calls.

River (28 BB): T /images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players including 1 all-in)
So-called Hero finally bets, ...

[waffle]

Bump. I hate to see this thread fall off.

I have no idea what to do. Reading this HH has flummoxed me. I can only hope SB is going crazy because he is shortstacked. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[Spicymoose]

I really like the river bet. If he has AA or KK he is betting anyway, and so you you will get that money in, yet he is pretty unlikely to raise you given your action. Also, you may occasionally get him to actually fold his AA or KK, while being ahead of the SB. If this happens even once in a blue moon, you take down major profit. Only negative thing is that you lose money when he would of bet AK on the river, but I think it is extremely unlikely case.

If he raises your river bet, I think you can fold, even though the pot is ridiculously big. He just doesn't have JJ often enough (or does he?). Also, folding isn't so bad, because you may already be beat by SB.

As for the flop, I don't get why you try to get fancy. Just raise the flop. Your move does seem cool if it works, but I don't think he is raising overcards after a bet and call often enough. If you know specifically he will, I guess you are ok to do this, but I would rather just raise, and see what he does to get a better idea of where you are at.

I also think you can raise this turn. You are often a good portion of the time, and want to defend your hand in what is becoming a very large pot. You also have great equity with your overpair and gutshot.

[imported_leader]

Flop raise seems much better. There's no guarantee that UTG with going to raise overs here and AK/AQ/AJ make up a lot of his holdings. If you are going to go for the call-raise you need to execute it. i.e. cap

[climber]

I dont like all the calling. You build a big pot with a decent but vulnerable made hand. I think at some point here you need to start thinking about how to represent some of the strength of your hand and raise the SB's bet and face the UTG with two cold and see if that slows him down at all either SB or UTG could easily have AT or a nice club draw or an OESD and I feel that you are likely way ahead on the flop so I bet it like I own it until others actions tell me otherwise. Its already a good size pot and I want it so I raise the SB's flop bet.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
but I don't think he is raising overcards after a bet and call often enough. If you know specifically he will, I guess you are ok to do this, but I would rather just raise, and see what he does to get a better idea of where you are at.

[/ QUOTE ]
My gut feeling is that this UTG would raise with any hand. He doesn't stand for being pushed around and this cold-calling donkey is betting into his cap. My "obvious" overcards are another reason for him to play aggressively. Plus the very LAG cutoff sitting behind him is a great insurance policy in case UTG does just call.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]

My gut feeling is that this UTG would raise with any hand. He doesn't stand for being pushed around and this cold-calling donkey is betting into his cap. My "obvious" overcards are another reason for him to play aggressively. Plus the very LAG cutoff sitting behind him is a great insurance policy in case UTG does just call.

[/ QUOTE ]

It does sound like a good plan. What about the added benefit of when you raise, UTG might 3-bet with worse hands (protecting your hand), and you can feel free to cap?

Your plan is good for getting a huge pot when you have good equity, but isn't there something to be said for protecting your hand and not letting your opponents even see the turn? I think your plan would be better if you held something like TT, AA, or maybe even KK.

[rory]

did you try throwing the mouse and/or keyboard across the room at any point in the hand?

[TheMetetron]

At the very least you need to fold to a turn 3-bet.

I think you played this hand about as poorly as possible, however.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
At the very least you need to fold to a turn 3-bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

Um, pot is huge, and we have plenty of outs against what our opponents could possibly be holding when we are behind.

"SB is a typical 73/16 whose postflop play consists primarily of betting out when he can and calling when someone else gets there first."

Given this, and the fact that SB just called preflop, I think he could easily have T8, 88, TT. With all of these we have 6 outs. Also, SB is all in before the hand is up, and often players love to just simply pump with their draws when they reach close to all in. He could even have something such as J9, or worse.

[Subfallen]

[ QUOTE ]
I really like the river bet. If he has AA or KK he is betting anyway, and so you you will get that money in, yet he is pretty unlikely to raise you given your action. Also, you may occasionally get him to actually fold his AA or KK,...

[/ QUOTE ]

YSSCKY.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really like the river bet. If he has AA or KK he is betting anyway, and so you you will get that money in, yet he is pretty unlikely to raise you given your action. Also, you may occasionally get him to actually fold his AA or KK,...

[/ QUOTE ]

YSSCKY.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this were heads up on the river (no all in SB), I think this VALID point is worth a bunch, as the pot is almost 30 BB. That would mean that if villain EVER folded these hands, we would profit. Given that the SB is still in, and that he probably owns the pot, the detail I mentioned plays a much less role. The real question now is whether we are getting value from buttons extremely overplayed AK, or a JJ. Looking over it again, I don't think this is often enough, and we should probably just check/fold the river.

[tolbiny]

[ QUOTE ]
did you try using your disconnect protect at any point in the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

[Wynton]

This seems like a pretty difficult lineup, and I can easily imagine myself going passive, right or wrong.

Frankly, I don't know that it makes much difference what you do on the flop. Doesn't sound like betting at any point on the flop - or even the turn - is going to help win the hand.

That river bet looks gutsy to me. I think I'd be going into check/call mode.

I certainly don't believe you're making AA or KK fold, like someone said.

[Victor]

cant fold the 6-outer on the turn. combine that with the chance that sb is going nutso allin as some do.

[TheMetetron]

If we were HU I agree, but we have to call 2 more BB's after a turn 3-bet and STILL face even more bets/raises by an UTG player who has bet/raised at every opportunity he had.

We are screwed in my opinion.


Also, I really hate the passivity of this hand early on. It makes this whole hand must tougher to play.

[TheMetetron]

[ QUOTE ]
cant fold the 6-outer on the turn. combine that with the chance that sb is going nutso allin as some do.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think we really have 6 outs combined against both these players ranges? Also, the possibility of a cap from UTG is very real.

[tolbiny]

the sb puts in 8BB's in this hand, it doesn't look like a "i'm almost allin so im going nutz" kind of hand.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
At the very least you need to fold to a turn 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can't fold to the turn 3-bet. The worst case scenario is you're up against AA or TT and have 6 outs getting ~8:1+implied.

[TheMetetron]

Ok, somehow I totally missed the gutshot. Don't ask me. I need to go back and recalc this now.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, somehow I totally missed the gutshot. Don't ask me. I need to go back and recalc this now.

[/ QUOTE ]


fwiw i agree with you if we disregarded the gutter. with a pot this big and with an overpair you have to face the field with 2 cold at some point. i understnad calling the flop because its just futile to try to protect a hand in such a huge pot. but i think at the least he should jack the turn when the sb bets.

[TheMetetron]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, somehow I totally missed the gutshot. Don't ask me. I need to go back and recalc this now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, crap we have to call. I hate life. At the least can we check/fold the river, or am I going to get killed for suggesting that?

Also, raise this somewhere please. Josh has a nice suggestion if you don't want to do so on the flop.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
i understnad calling the flop because its just futile to try to protect a hand in such a huge pot

[/ QUOTE ]

Normally yes, but against the UTG that StellarWind described? I think often he will 3-bet a worse hand and help with the protection.

[StellarWind]

The idea behind the river bet is to use the board pairing to get paid in case I have a better hand than UTG. There is no way he can fold any pair or even AK for one bet in a 29 BB pot, especially since its pretty obvious that I should have A /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif or A /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i understnad calling the flop because its just futile to try to protect a hand in such a huge pot

[/ QUOTE ]

Normally yes, but against the UTG that StellarWind described? I think often he will 3-bet a worse hand and help with the protection.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a very good point. Also it is possible that UTG might fold. Pushing out AK is probably too much to hope for and this was a key factor in my at-the-table decision to play for the value call-raise. But the pot is growing so large that even eliminating AJ or some lower ace would be huge.

My flop play is just an interesting mistake.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
but i think at the least he should jack the turn when the sb bets.

[/ QUOTE ]
This helps me how? There are already 17 BB in the pot before I act on the turn. The turn nine has created a three-straight and a second flush draw. What hand can I possibly force out?

Meanwhile it is very likely that UTG is as scared as I am and will not raise behind me if I just call. He can read donks too and even AA doesn't look very healthy right now. But SB is apparently stacking off so one of the most frequent results of raising the turn will be to pay two extra BB to take a longshot draw to the river.

The turn cap is only obvious in hindsight. That UTG would raise the turn was certainly possible but it wasn't especially likely.

[Danenania]

I like everything. I only wonder if you are ever good on the river. But if you must see a showdown then betting is the way to see one. This is how I would play it if at all unsure of UTG's credibility.

[StellarWind]

UTG called my river bet and mucked. This site does not disclose unshown hands.

SB showed Q /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif. MHIG.

[TheMetetron]

Edit: Erased due to my better judgement and resolution to not be an ass to people.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG called my river bet and mucked. This site does not disclose unshown hands.

SB showed Q /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif. MHIG.

[/ QUOTE ]

pimp

[Digs]

I don't understand not raising the flop.

[imported_leader]

[ QUOTE ]
Edit: Erased due to my better judgement and resolution to not be an ass to people.

[/ QUOTE ]

ROFL

[TheMetetron]

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[ QUOTE ]
Edit: Erased due to my better judgement and resolution to not be an ass to people.

[/ QUOTE ]

ROFL

[/ QUOTE ]

Glad I amuse you.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG called my river bet and mucked. This site does not disclose unshown hands.

SB showed Q /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif. MHIG.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, you must have been psychic playing this hand. I think the river is the pretty interesting considering the pot is the size that it is. Did you expect to be ahead of SB a small percentage of the time because he was all in, and people go nuts sometimes when all in? Do you honestly think you have UTG beat more than 50% of the time when he calls your river bet? AA and KK just seem so much more likely then what I guess ended up being A /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif or A /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif?

[MAxx]

I'd have raised the flop. Had I played the flop like you, seems like the turn would be an excellent spot to raise UTG's lead. I think you are still in good shape and its time to give the other players the opportunity to make mistakes when facing 2 on the turn. Pots large now and this is your best spot to thin the crowd if possible/ face others with the opportunity to make the wrong decision. In the evenet you are behind it is an easy call of the 3...or 4 bet on the turn. Your hand has several potential outs if behind, which is not all that clear as your bets may actually go in as the best hand, and you have a player near all-in and with a higher than norm probability of not playing properly and another guy who has a history of trying to muscle you... the most you have to put in on the river is A BB for showdown.

I think you should have flexed your guns a little more here.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you honestly think you have UTG beat more than 50% of the time when he calls your river bet?

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course not, but that's not the proper question.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you honestly think you have UTG beat more than 50% of the time when he calls your river bet?

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course not, but that's not the proper question.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, you are right.

Do you honestly think that the times that he calls has a worse hand and calls you with this worse hand outweighs the times he checks behind his AA or KK (fearing the T).

[ddubois]

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This site does not disclose unshown hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why are you playing there?

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you honestly think that the times that he calls has a worse hand and calls you with this worse hand outweighs the times he checks behind his AA or KK (fearing the T).

[/ QUOTE ]
I think a better hand checks behind never.

Stop looking at my cards and start looking at my play. Give me one reason why he shouldn't put me on AK/AQ (probably clubs or diamonds) after I check the river.

The real question about the river is whether there is any hand he will check. It is possible that he will bet any pair for value and any two high cards as a bluff.

That's the real reason why my bet might not be correct.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you honestly think that the times that he calls has a worse hand and calls you with this worse hand outweighs the times he checks behind his AA or KK (fearing the T).

[/ QUOTE ]
I think a better hand checks behind never.

Stop looking at my cards and start looking at my play. Give me one reason why he shouldn't put me on AK/AQ (probably clubs or diamonds) after I check the river.

The real question about the river is whether there is any hand he will check. It is possible that he will bet any pair for value and any two high cards as a bluff.

That's the real reason why my bet might not be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for opening my eyes. I wasn't really thinking about what he might put you on. I am trying to use more levels of thought when analyzing plays, but still havn't made it there. I will try to think more about what they they I have.

I guess normally the plays you make express your strength to your opponent, so this level of thinking isn't as important. But since your play here is very deceptive, your actual range, and the range he thinks you have differ a lot more than usual, which means you really have to be thinking about it.

Thanks as always.