SB vs BB

[winky51]

Situation: Your about 4x the BB and all fold to you in the SB. BB has a little more chips than you.

Is it +EV to go all in with a crap hand like J3o?

[winky51]

Sorry Vs a tight player and the players to his left have fat stacks. Next set of rounds you're pretty much dead if you dont pick up a hand

[nomadtla]

This all depends on how frequently you expect your opponent to fold. I don't have poker stove (since I'm at work) with me to do the exact math but this hand will only win 12% against aces (according to cardplayer.com's calculator) and I wouldn't put your equity at much more than that against any random hand that BB (if he's tight) would reasonably call with.
You are wagering 3.5 (assuming your stack was 4 BB before taking out the SB) to win 1.5 (the BB + your SB). So in odds it looks like this 1.5 : 3.5. But if he calls and you win your odds look like this 5.5 : 3.5
So to do EV calculations would look something like this.

You go all in and he folds 80% of the time and you win 12% of the time that he does call
(-3.5)+(.80x5)+(.024x8)
-3.5 + 4 + .19 = +.69
You go all in and he folds 70% of the time and you win 12%
(-3.5)+(.70x5)+(.036x8)
-3.5 + 3.5 + .29 = +.29
You go all in and he folds 65% of the time and you win 12%
(-3.5)+(.65x5)+(.042x8)
-3.5 + 3.25 + .34 = +.09
You go all in and he folds 60% of the time and you win 12%
(-3.5)+(.60x5)+(.048x8)
-3.5 + 3 + .38 = -.12

So the area is if he will fold more then 65% of the time. The other question being why do it now when on the button you are getting the same odds and may have a better hand.
I think this hand is to weak to risk my whole tournament on it. I would not be all in with this hand unless the blind put me all in before I was dealt it. But that's just my 2 cents.

[PJM1206]

I am not a good tournament player but I just recently got through reading both volumes of Harrington on NL Tournements. I have been experimenting with his concepts and they have helped. He dicusses this situation in his book. There are varrious inflection points and how and what you should play in each one. Once you get down below 5X the BB you are in what he calls the dead zone and you have almost no choice at that point but to go all in with any 2 cards. The key is to be first to act. Sounds like you should have gone all in to try to double up ealrier with a better hand. I would start looking to double up when I am about 6-10X BB. He actually uses 6-10x the sum the SB and BB so if the blinds are 50 and 100 150X10=1,500 in chips start looking for the best hand and if first to act start pushing

[nomadtla]

Agreed at some point you have to push any 2. But OP was asking the EV of the play and I was merely showing how it would vary bassed on the calling frequency of BB.

[trumpman84]

As he calls more, the quality of hands he's calling with goes down, therefore hero wins more. IE if he calls 100% of the time (random hand), his J3o will have probably a 45% equity against his range, so it cant be right that heroes equity is 14% at a 20% call rate and still 14% at a 60% call rate.

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
As he calls more, the quality of hands he's calling with goes down, therefore hero wins more. IE if he calls 100% of the time (random hand), his J3o will have probably a 45% equity against his range, so it cant be right that heroes equity is 14% at a 20% call rate and still 14% at a 60% call rate.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't have poker stove (since I'm at work) with me to do the exact math

[/ QUOTE ]

granted. I was merely attempting to show how this decission has more to do with opponent's calling standards when you are looking strictly at the EV.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Depends on how tight the BB is and the size of his stack.