Default play 20-40

[rtrombone]

20-40 at the Bike. Pretty tough game. Most players seem pretty solid (they're not playing very many hands). No real good reads, though, as I haven't been there very long. I overhear the guy to my left tell the woman to his left, who just sat down, that seat 7 never bets or raises as a bluff. He says that everyone else at the table will bluff. My opponent in this hand is not seat 7.

I have Q /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 9 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif in the BB. Limp, limp, limp, MP guy raises. I call. Limpers call. Flop is Qxx two clubs. We check to the raiser, who bets. I check-raise. Raiser thinks for a bit and calls. Turn is a non-club blank. I bet and get raised. I call and call a river bet. Raiser takes it down with AQ.

I decided to look this guy up because I was new to the table and thought there was a chance he was putting a play on me with something like A /forums/images/icons/club.gif K /forums/images/icons/club.gif .

If you're new to a game and get into a heads-up confrontation with what appears to be a decent player, is your default play to look him up with top pair lousy kicker? Maybe with any pocket pair? If there is no draw out there, it's easier to fold to a turn raise, right?

I would like to hear people's reasons for:

(1) betting the flop rather than check-raising (what do you do if the raiser raises you?);

(2) checking the turn and calling him down;

(3) folding to the turn raise;

(4) folding to the river bet. I wonder if I should have mucked here, because wouldn't he have checked it down with A /forums/images/icons/club.gif K /forums/images/icons/club.gif ?

Or would you have played it as I did? I'm assuming the pre-flop call is correct because the 3 limpers are also going to call.

[Dynasty]

Congratulations. You put him on the one hand you could beat and ignored all the other hands which had you crushed.

It's not an easy hand to play. But, after you check-raise the flop and get raised on the turn, the hand should be folded.

How much were you thinking about what your opponent thought you had? When you check-raise the flop, most opponents will think that you've got either top pair or a flush draw. If the flush doesn't come and you get raised on the turn, it is very likely that your opponent can beat top pair.

[Vehn]

It's not an easy hand to play. But, after you check-raise the flop and get raised on the turn, the hand should be folded.

I suspect playing this way anywhere outside of Las Vegas will get you killed. He needs to win 25% of the time when he calls the river bet to break even. He needs to win 12% of the time when he calls the turn raise and the river goes check check which of course means he wins. Even if his opponent shows him AA he should still call the turn raise.

I call down almost every time against an unknown and expect to be shown JJ, TT, AK, middle pair, god knows what a decent amount of the time and to make money from my calls. You can make a case for calling the turn raise and folding if he bets the river but by then the pot is big and you might as well look him up.

[Dynasty]

I've got to make a correction based on vehn's comments. You should defnitely call the turn raise with the assumption that you are drawing live to a 5-outer most of the time. I neglected to take into account the size of the pot when thinking about the turn play. Raises on the first three streets sure do build a pot fast.

[rtrombone]

I think vehn is correct that a lot of times you have to call a guy down because heads up people are not at all hesitant to put in a full-of-[censored] raise, at least in the games I play in. They are liable to do this at the flop, turn and even the river.

In this particular situation, though, I think Dynasty is right that a laydown was in order. I was asking what a person's default play here should be, and what it comes down to is whether you're going to try and put a play on a guy you've never seen before and who just sat down. If he's never seen you before, wouldn't you think his default play is going to be to look you up? This means you should bet/raise only for value in your first confrontation. I should have mucked to his turn raise.

My opponent was certainly good enough to try and buy a pot. In another hand I saw him bet the flop and turn and then give it up on the river against a woman who dragged the pot with a small pocket pair. The woman is a good player who apparently plays a lot of 40-80 at Commerce; more importantly, they seemed very familiar with each other's play.

Against me, though, a complete stranger, it's less likely a good player is going to get out of line. Because he's afraid I'm going to call him.

Do you guys agree?

[elysium]

hi rtom
clear fold pre-flop.
before considering a raise from the BB against an LP, you must also consider the opponent tendancies between you and the bettor. if they are likely to call your raise, then you shouldn't raise. and you can't call the LP. what youre hoping for is the immediate left to bet out folding back to you. i can't see playing this holding any other way, which is why you shouldn't be calling raises with it.

[DaBartman]

I know the game you describe. Q /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 9 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif in big blind?. Not for me, even with those pot odds. I think it is close enough that long run there is not much gain or loss whether you fold or not. If I can avoid putting myself into marginal situations without costing myself EV, then that's the course I usually take. I say usually because if I haven't been playing many hands and have been unable to defend my blinds much, I may lean towards a call here. As to #1 I bet the flop to see what happens. With this many players in, nobody is going to get too far out of line. If raised, I'll give credit for a hand and see the turn. If I don't improve, I'm done with it. #2 Check and fold, if improved checkraise. #3 In this situation, I'd never get that far. #4 Ditto. And yes, it is correct for your opponet to show down an unimproved AK at the river. IMHO

[Dynasty]

clear fold pre-flop.

elysium, this is yet another example that you just don't have a good grasp of the game. Folding Q9s in the big blind for one nmore bet pre-flop with four opponents in the pot is an extremely poor decision.

[Dynasty]

I think it is close enough that long run there is not much gain or loss whether you fold or not. If I can avoid putting myself into marginal situations without costing myself EV, then that's the course I usually take.

This situation is definitely +EV. I don't think it's close. You're putting one small bet into a pot which is going to have 5 big bets in it before the flop. 9:1 is a huge overlay.

[DaBartman]

How much is huge and where is the break even point. My math is not not the greatest so I have to go with my guts most times. I'm quite open to adjusting my own play on this one.

[bad beetz]

3: fold to the turn raise because he holly wooded the flop call. If he had AcKc his call or reraise would have been automatic. This flop hesitation may mean he's going to pop you on the turn. When he does, I think you are beaten by AQ or an overpair or QQ. fold.

it's not enough info to check/fold the turn, but it amplifies the believability of the turn raise enough to make me fold.

[rtrombone]

[Dynasty]

You need to know what Q9s chances are of catching a good flop.

I think we can easily agree that flopping a flush or a four-flush is a good flop. You are only 7.48:1 to get one of those flops. That alone gives you the right overlay to call.

It would take some good math work (instead of looking in Mike Petriv's Hold'em Odds Book) to calculate the odds of flopping a straight draw with 2-gapper. But, that combined with the flush and combined with the chances of flopping two-pair or better (27.8:1) should push it down near 6:1 to get a good flop.

What you really need to know is that 9:1 is plenty to call two decent suited cards. The weak straight and weak high card value of the hand push it from a marginal overlay to a big overlay.