How often do we see aces?

[valenzuela]

No Limit Hold'em SNG, $100+$9, 10 handed, Blinds 10/20.

First hand (All 10 players have 1000 chips).

Heroine is in Big Blind and is dealt K K .

SB (t1000): Posts SB 10.
BB (Heroine t1000): Posts BB 20.
UTG (t1000): Bets 1000 (All-In).
UTG+1 (t1000): Folds.
UTG+2 (t1000): Folds.
MP1 (t1000): Folds.
MP2 (t1000): Calls 1000 (All-In).
MP3 (t1000): Calls 1000 (All-In).
CO (t1000): Folds.
Button (t1000): Folds.

SB (t990): Calls 990 (All-In).
BB (Heroine t980): Folds.

[PoBoy321]

Well, I'm not 100% sure, but I think you have odds to call for a set given that you'll see 5 cards, but I expect to see AA here often enough that this is a good fold and since it's the first hand in, just letting 4 players get knocked out and letting someone else deal with them is probably fine.

The AA is not that often so the hero must call.

I voted more than 70% of the time. The tourney just started, so no one has any reads. All the callers could be thinking 'My AQs/TT/whatever is good, he must be a noob pushing in level 1!
And the first pusher is probably a noob. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Does this happen often at this buy-in level?!

You have to call here in a SnG. Either you're tripling up, which allows you to make the money and get at least second if you are near equal to the other players, or you're out and get started in another SnG.
I've been in this situation twice (once vs one opponent and once vs two opponents), both times I had the best hand going in and both times KK held up and I went on to win one and get second in the other. One time I was heads up against JJ, and the other time I was up against AK and TT.

[Eric Draven]

This is such a hard spot... I really have no idea what to do... I would think that someone has AA, but this early, whithout knowing them it could be something like n00b pushes 2 face cards, MP1 calls with AK, and MP2 calls with QQ. It's probably right to fold but...

I think I call because I can't let go of AA or KK pre-flop without a LOT of action (like 8 pushes in front /images/graemlins/grin.gif)

[Femto]

I call too. At low limit STTs I've seen all kinds of garbage flipped over in this exact situation. KK is probably good, and if it's not you're still 20% to win against TWO all ins (33% pot odds) making this not too terrible of a mistake.

[tigerite]

This is a $100 + $9. Hardly 'low limit' is it.

[Nottom]

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This is a $100 + $9. Hardly 'low limit' is it.

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Doesn't mean it doesn't play like one.

[Nottom]

I took 70%+ but I'd say its between 80 and 85% ... but I'd still probably call.

Your EV is probably pretty close to neutral since you are getting 4-1 and are about a 4-1 dog to AA and you might even be ahead some small portion of the time against a bunch of donks.

The main reason I call is because the TimeEV of having 5000 chips on hand 2 seems like it has to be worth something. Along those lines the more interesting question is do you call with say ... 67s.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
I took 70%+ but I'd say its between 80 and 85% ... but I'd still probably call.

Your EV is probably pretty close to neutral since you are getting 4-1 and are about a 4-1 dog to AA and you might even be ahead some small portion of the time against a bunch of donks.

The main reason I call is because the TimeEV of having 5000 chips on hand 2 seems like it has to be worth something.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you knew you were up against AA calling would be a terrible mistake.

[ilya]

I really think this is a CLEAR fold & that many of your are missing the main point. Which is, if you're up against AA, it's a *terrible* mistake to call *irrespective* of the pot odds. And IMO you're almost certain to see AA here at any buyin. Like, 90%+. FOUR all-ins & you're blocking AK/KK!!

[bones]

There are 28 people and counting who need their heads examined.

[Nottom]

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I took 70%+ but I'd say its between 80 and 85% ... but I'd still probably call.

Your EV is probably pretty close to neutral since you are getting 4-1 and are about a 4-1 dog to AA and you might even be ahead some small portion of the time against a bunch of donks.

The main reason I call is because the TimeEV of having 5000 chips on hand 2 seems like it has to be worth something.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you knew you were up against AA calling would be a terrible mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we knew ... yeah that would suck. But we don't know do we. That 15% or so of uncertainty is enough to push it over the top.

On the other hand as I proposed in my first post, if we had a medium suited connector here. We don't much care if someone has AA or not.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
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I took 70%+ but I'd say its between 80 and 85% ... but I'd still probably call.

Your EV is probably pretty close to neutral since you are getting 4-1 and are about a 4-1 dog to AA and you might even be ahead some small portion of the time against a bunch of donks.

The main reason I call is because the TimeEV of having 5000 chips on hand 2 seems like it has to be worth something.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you knew you were up against AA calling would be a terrible mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we knew ... yeah that would suck. But we don't know do we. That 15% or so of uncertainty is enough to push it over the top.

On the other hand as I proposed in my first post, if we had a medium suited connector here. We don't much care if someone has AA or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all I think 15% is a very generous estimate.

Secondly, I don't think that even such a generous estimate outweighs the horror of getting it all in as a 4:1 dog on the first hand. I mean...doing it on the 1st hand of every SnG would automatically make you a sizeable loser, even if you got 1st every single time after sucking out!

[SlackerMcFly]

Bones has the hottest avatar.

Is this another fold KK preflop post? Yeesh.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]


Is this another fold KK preflop post? Yeesh.

[/ QUOTE ]

don't hate, folding is def. correct here.

[Slim Pickens]

Does anyone want to mention that calling as the second overcaller is stupid, even with the second nuts.

[FlyWf]

Tough to measure this, but you're almost certainly worse than a 4:1 dog. Your kings are in one of the other allin hands. This is a remarkably easy fold. Can't finish higher than first, after all. 985 chips 6 handed is worth $126 by ICM.

[curtains]

I would fold here, although Ive only folded KK preflop once in my career in sit and gos (and I was probably wrong then)

This time I have no worries, and if I'm somehow shown that no one has AA I'm still happy in the knowledge that such play by my opponents will ensure a lot of $$ in my pockets for quite a while.

[microbet]

I agree with this being a good fold, probably, in the $109s, I would not fold this in the $11s.

I just mention that because last I heard OP was in the $11s.

[valenzuela]

Yupi!!! Finally we can all agree its a fold.

1) According to our pal ICM, winning the five way all-in leaves with 36,1% of the prize pool, folding leaves us with 11,4% of the prize pool.
2)If we dont see AA or some suited connector like 87 we will win 45% of the time more or less.
3)If we do see AA, which is kinda likely, we will win 18% of the time IF nobody else has a king, IF nobody else has a king, IF nobody else has a king.
I wouldnt be surprised if I see KQ or AK.
4) You win 10 dollars for folding.
5) Youre expected value for calling is less than + 10 dollars.
6) folding is correct.

[ebaudry]

Harrington says that AA will be out there 1 hand each 24 when you hold KK.

IMO, the action here is more odd than indicative of Aces. I'd be expecting a middle pair, probably an AK, maybe a big pair QQ+.

I don't feel like doing the algebra, but I would wonder how well KK does against 3 other legit hands. Like if they held QQ, AK, JJ (which is probably about best case). Given the 3 opponents you'll have to beat, I wonder how well KK holds up. Just on the fly, I would think QQ will beat you ~15%, same for JJ. The ace will catch I think ~30%, and the King is blocking you.

I play the $33s so I couldn't fold this personally. But I agree whole-heartedly with all the logic pointing to folding here since it's more +EV. I see small pockets too often here to consider folding for my taste (at $33).

GL.