another boring hand because I play bad 3/6 kill Live

[bottomset]

couple friends wanted to go to the B&M for some relaxing lowlimit poker, I normally don't play at this casino much, since its 45mins away, and they rarely spread anything besides 3/6 .. they had a 4-100 spread limit game(South Dakota has a $100 bet limit, so this is basically a 2/4blind NL game, max buyin 200 .. with some restrictions) I play this for an orbit before moving over to the 3/6 kill game, since I hate NL(re: I'm terrible at it, and worse at fake NL)

I play 2orbits of boring poker, straddling both UTG chances, the BB when I'm straddling tells me anyone who straddles is insane. He is a very loose bad player, that is fairly aggro, and likes to make bizzare plays


ok onto the hand, no kill /images/graemlins/frown.gif

I get 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif OTB 10handed

MP3limps, CO(erratic guy) limps, I raise, SB calls, MPcalls, CO LRR's, everyone calls

I got the impression that this was a F U for raising my limp type LRR, not a I'm a donkey with AA getting tricky LRR.

flop

542 rainbow

checked to CO who bets, I raise, SB folds, MP calls, CO 3bets, I call, MP calls

MP is very bad doesn't fold on the flop or turn very often, but does like to fold the river for 1bet, tends to play fairly fast and straightfoward with a big hand

Turn: K completes rainbow

MP checks, CO bets, I??

raise or call??

[milesdyson]

gad.

i kind of want to cap this flop, bet the turn, and take a showdown

i think this hand is different from a hand like

AA on 8JQ board where the flop goes bet, i raise, call, call, original bettor 3-bets... i want to call here and raise the turn.

in your hand, i feel my hand will be too weak to raise the turn, and i'd rather find my way to showdown quickly (which seems more likely by throwing a cappuccino in on the flop).

given your line, i still raise the turn, and i take the free showdown. i don't know how vindictive the guy is, but i do not want to put any more bets into this pot. that really is a nasty turn card. i guess not as nasty as an A or 3.

[PokerSparky]

This is one of those -- he may have it; he may not, but he's definitely gonna have to show it situatations IMO.

I can see a case for capping the flop, but he may just lead the turn as well. I just call down after the flop 3 bet and say nice hand if he has me beat.

[thesharpie]

Tough one. The pot will be like 15BB if you raise the turn and CO 3 bets assuming the other guys gets out, so you'd be missing out on like .7BB by folding. Obviously if he sometimes get you to laydown the best hand it's even worse.

Also once he 3 bet if you decided to calldown I think you'd be getting more like over 10 to 1 than 8 to 1 effective, since you're only putting in ~1.3BB on the turn and river due to your equity, and assuming villain has 9 outs on average (a number I picked out my ass) when we're ahead villain will win the 16.7BB pot around 1/5 of the time giving us ~13.3 to 1.3.

Also if he only 3 bets us a small amount of the time, not enough to warrant calling down, we still lose quite a bit. If he does it 1 in 20 times we lose about .66BB, add that to the .7BB we miss out on by not drawing and we lose ~1.36BB. Even if he only 3 bets 1 out of 40 times we lose over 1BB when you add the ~.7BB equity we have.

Sorry if the above is totally wrong, or too inaccurate, it's the first time I've bothered thinking about these concepts and I suck at math so I won't bother getting too accurate.

Having said all that the pot is so large that just knocking out a 4 outer makes us over 1BB if we're ahead, and I'm guessing the cold caller usually has 6-8 outs unless he regularly cold calls the flop with utter crap.

I'd say the LRRer is almost never folding if we're ahead so we can't increase our chances by knocking him out, but we do gain a bet when he would've check/folded the river, or when we get too scared to value bet it after he checks.

After all that I think I raise the turn, we can often get the coldcaller to fold an 8 outer incorrectly and that's worth more than the equity we give up on by sometimes folding the best hand when we get 3 bet and also giving up the chance to sometimes spike a set. Also we often gain a bet (or 2 if the other guy coldcalls while behind) when we otherwise wouldn't have if we were too scared to bet the river or they check/folded the river.

Really it boils down to how often you think the LRRer will 3 bet with a worse hand, and also how often we're currently ahead since folding a 10 outer is only like folding a 5 outer if we're only ahead 50% of the time. No doubt we're ahead more than 50% of the time but you get what I'm saying. If your estimate of him 3 betting a worse hand starts getting close to what would make a calldown correct if he 3 bet then I just calldown since it can start getting expensive.

[Walker]

you just called the 3-bet so you could raise the flop, right?

[adsman]

I think you're in front. Mr LAG sounds like one of those players who will bet and raise hard when he hasn't got anything, but will go for the checkraises, slowplays and other 'tricky' moves when he's got a good hand. I also have the nagging suspicion that he has a pocket pair between 6 and 8. MP is your classic pot padder who will let you know when he's got a hand. Raise it up, as the pot is getting big and you want to give yourself every chance to win it. If they call, that's fine too of course. If another paint or a 3 falls on the river then I'm either checking behind or calling. If anything else hits the board then I think a value bet would be in order.

By the way, how are your confidence levels lately? I only ask as I've noticed that you've been putting yourself down a bit with your posts. It's not a boring hand and you don't play bad.

[bottomset]

sharpie: there isn't much for draws on this board, gutshots with a 6 or A, and OESD with a 3, so the coldcaller rarely has more than 6outs, often just 2pair outs, sometimes just 3outs he called the flop with pretty much anything, tigthened up some on the turn, and "made laydowns" on the river(and or folded unpaired garbage he was chasing, not sure)

CO only has a big number of outs if he has AT-AQ, when I'm ahead, though often has 6outs.

I just called the turn, MP folded

river was a 7, he bet, I called .. he showed J8s, MHIG

my intial thought was to let him continue to bluff with 6outs(my first thought was JTs, QJs, QTs), I don't really like MP coming along with 5-6outs, the pot is big, and I would like to take it down right now. HU I think in this spot its a fairly easy call, call line, 3handed I'm not sure

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, how are your confidence levels lately? I only ask as I've noticed that you've been putting yourself down a bit with your posts. It's not a boring hand and you don't play bad.


[/ QUOTE ]

my confidence is pretty good, 5/10 still hasn't clicked yet, but 3/6 is still letting me destroy it .. my turn decision making of late hasn't been as good as I would like, and I have been making some bad calldowns that I know better than to do.

[thesharpie]

In that case I like the way you played it, especially after seeing the results, if he'll play J8s like this I'd say he'll 3 bet bluff the turn fairly often. And if MP will coldcall with just 3 outs on the flop there's less to worry about knocking him out, and he might even still coldcall the turn if he has something like 8 outs and he wouldn't really be making a mistake if he could see your cards, assuming the LRRer is also drawing.

[Kumubou]

Cap this pre-flop. You have a read of him doing an anger-fuled limp-reraise, so punish him for his irrational play.

Honestly I do not know when to stop jamming here. CO is playing two Uno cards here and MP is going to donk along with anything -- we could already be crushed but there seems like too much of an overlay to go pissing away. What I wonder is what the plan is once you get it HU with either the CO or MP.

Maybe call the turn and raise the CO's river bet? Would MP a pair over your 9s there ever?

This seems overly aggro but anything less seems like leaving bets on the table...

-K

[thesharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
Cap this pre-flop. You have a read of him doing an anger-fuled limp-reraise, so punish him for his irrational play.

[/ QUOTE ]

We have perfect relative position to the LRRer to make the field face 2 on the flop, I think it's worth giving up the edge PF for this. If we cap and the LRRer checks to us and we bet they're getting 16 to 1 or something, anything can call then. Even if he leads into us and we raise they'd be getting almost 10 to 1.

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe call the turn and raise the CO's river bet? Would MP a pair over your 9s there ever?

This seems overly aggro but anything less seems like leaving bets on the table...

-K

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see him folding a pocket pair higher than 9s much on the river, and there's not really value in a raise.

I like the preflop call, due to position.

I think it was a mistake to raise the flop.

I call the flop and raise the turn.

i'm grunching...

If he's not LRR with AA or KK, then what? I think we want to see his cards, so we go into calldown mode and call another non-biggee river. On the other hand, a raise here might just fold him, but we may be looking to fold our hand if 3-bet. We'd only be getting like 16:1 here to hit our 2-outer.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it was a mistake to raise the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

curious as to why you think that

[ QUOTE ]
If he's not LRR with AA or KK, then what? I think we want to see his cards, so we go into calldown mode and call another non-biggee river. On the other hand, a raise here might just fold him, but we may be looking to fold our hand if 3-bet. We'd only be getting like 16:1 here to hit our 2-outer.


[/ QUOTE ]

usually suited connectors, baby aces, or pocket pairs .. the spite ones can be any2cards

my gut reaction was he wouldn't continue the spastic vendetta aggression if I fired back on the turn, and a raise might pick the pot up right there, and considering its 11BB, thats prob the best reason for raising.
for HU considerations
6outs has an equity of about 1.65BB on the turn, thats worth going after with a raise

77 and 88 only have 2outs, equity of .55BB I gain more by letting bluff

a hand like J8, Q8, J7 only have 3outs, .825BB equity, letting him bluff is optimal

Kx, set has 10.45BB equity, and 3bets me, calling is better

a straight has me dead, calling down is better

a pair has 5outs 1.375BB equity, though is rarely folding, raising is better than calling

hands with more than 6outs won't fold here, but raising is better since I get in 2bets as a pretty large favorite
ok so if he has more than 3outs, raising is better since it can pick the pot up, or make him put in 2bets as a big underdog, if he has me beat, or has 2 or 3outs, raising is the inferior decision, as I either put in money as a big underdog, or lose out on EV by letting him continue bluffing .. just quick mental math says that he's more likely to have a hand that isn't ahead but with more than 3outs, than a hand that is ahead of me, or one that I'd prefer to continue bluffing, so a raise here is the play HU

3handed raising is better than HU, since my hand is rarely in a position of WA, collect an overcall type of situation, getting a 6outer to fold is a solid boost in equity