POKER VS STOCKS

just wondering which on couple things. these questions are for people who played/plays high limit poker and does stocks.

1. which one is more risky
2. which one is more profitable and by how much
3. which one is easier to beat.
4. how much are you investing to get what kind of profit in stocks

and if you guys can post the first couple things you did /read to learn stocks please post it. couple things which basically taught u alot about stocks and how the whole thing works.

[r3vbr]

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just wondering which on couple things. these questions are for people who played/plays high limit poker and does stocks.

1. which one is more risky
2. which one is more profitable and by how much
3. which one is easier to beat.
4. how much are you investing to get what kind of profit in stocks

and if you guys can post the first couple things you did /read to learn stocks please post it. couple things which basically taught u alot about stocks and how the whole thing works.

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1- depends what kind of poker player/investor you are
2- until you reach 2M USD net worth at LEAST, poker is way more profitable (hourly rate)
3- poker
4- 10% yearly return is very very good

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4- 10% yearly return is average

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FYP

1. Most likely poker, but all depends on your stock selection, or how you play poker.
2. same as #1
3. Market it easier to beat.
4. ~50k ....profit avg 3-4k a wk

[AceHigh]

One point you are over looking is that you can't play poker with your entire bankroll. So if you can afford put some of your bankroll in stocks, it will increase your earnings. Since stocks are pretty liquid it's a lot more convienent to do this with them than real estate or bond's/CD's that mature on a certain date.

[edtost]

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Since stocks are pretty liquid it's a lot more convienent to do this with them than real estate or bond's/CD's that mature on a certain date.

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for bonds, is there any way for a small investor to get into the repo market to actually get a decent return with liquidity?

[Sniper]

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just wondering which on couple things. these questions are for people who played/plays high limit poker and does stocks.

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Based on this, I will assume for these responses you are talking about someone with at least a 5 figure bankroll...

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1. which one is more risky

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The RISK in both Poker and Stocks is controlled by YOU.

In Poker, you determine the level you play, the game style (fixed limit, NL, SNG, MTT, other games, etc) and how you play (TAG, LAG, etc), which directly affect both the mean and standard deviation of your results, in absolute $$ terms.

In Stocks, you determine Position size (100sh vs 1Ksh vs 10ksh), time frame (1hr, 1day, 1mth, 1 yr, etc), stops, risk/reward potential, type of stocks (Large caps, Small caps, Penny stocks, Momentum stocks, etc), which directly affect the mean and standard deviation of your results.

(Note: these are just examples, not an exhaustive list of all factors affecting risk in either case)

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2. which one is more profitable and by how much


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There is significant profit to be made in both Poker and Stocks by people who are willing to put in the research and analysis time to improve their skills and learn what works.

If you are not willing to invest much time in learning the "game", then you will likely have more success in the market. The average investor in an index fund will significantly outperform a "fish" at the poker table.

At high stakes, the Market is potentially far more profitable, if only because you can get your whole bankroll in play much easier.

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3. which one is easier to beat.

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This comes back to knowledge... to a knowledgable player, both are "easy" to beat.

[r3vbr]

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4- 10% yearly return is average

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FYP

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i've read in some books that for the last century, the US stock market averaged 7% yearly return

[Sniper]

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i've read in some books that for the last century, the US stock market averaged 7% yearly return

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It all depends on what you use to represent the "US stock market" /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Warren Whitmore]

You are mixing two different things. Poker is a form of self employment. The stock market is a form of investing. Thinks about it this way if you have your money invested properly you could do absolutly nothing with it and it would be worth 60% more 5 years from now. If you do nothing with your poker bankroll it will be worth 0% more in 5 years.

[Sniper]

Trading can also be a form of self employment!!!

[MrBig30]

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3. Market it easier to beat.
4. ~50k ....profit avg 3-4k a wk

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You sir are going to be disappointed if you believe you can keep that up.

[Warren Whitmore]

I never thought of it that way but you are right.

[Sniper]

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You sir are going to be disappointed if you believe you can keep that up.

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Making 1K/day on 200K (50Kx4) of daily margin buying power, is not "unreasonable", if you know what you are doing!!!

[DesertCat]

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You sir are going to be disappointed if you believe you can keep that up.

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Making 1K/day on 200K (50Kx4) of daily margin buying power, is not "unreasonable", if you know what you are doing!!!

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That's a 100% annualized return on your trades (400% on your equity). Out of curiousity, would you be willing to share how it's done? I.e. a specific trade you've done, the rationale behind your decision to make the trade, and the results you achieved?

[MrBig30]

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You sir are going to be disappointed if you believe you can keep that up.

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Making 1K/day on 200K (50Kx4) of daily margin buying power, is not "unreasonable", if you know what you are doing!!!

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Its not unreasonable to do so for a week month or maybe even several years IF YOU ARE LUCKY. Just compare it to running good at poker. The long run is very long. And in the long run only the very lucky or those with insider information beat index by much IMO.

[Sniper]

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And in the long run only the very lucky or those with insider information beat index by much IMO.

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You are wrong! /images/graemlins/cool.gif

I suggest you take a look at the performance records on marketocracy, for a simple example of many with the demonstrated skill to beat the "baseline" market averages (like the Dow or S&P).

Just like in poker, if you are willing to put in the time to learn "how to do it"... it is "easy".

[DesertCat]

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I suggest you take a look at the performance records on marketocracy, for a simple example of many with the demonstrated skill to beat the "baseline" market averages (like the Dow or S&P).

Just like in poker, if you are willing to put in the time to learn "how to do it"... it is "easy".

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The highest four year annulized return on marketocracy is 42% (ist.martin ORR 411.65%), far short of 100% or even 400% per year. And out of thousands of portfolios, it's reasonable to assume that statistical variation would produce one lucky enough to do 42% per year.

Just like poker, being lucky for a time doesn't make you good. Reviewing someone's hand histories is probably a much more accurate way of determining luck vs. good, than short term results.

So if 100% a year is easy, can you tell us how to do it?

[solucky]

i play not high limits for me

1. Poker and Bonuswhoring is less/ even risky

2. In the moment i make more on the market if you have 200 K its hard to make more with poker

3. Poker is in average -EV ( rakes) the markets +EV /economic growth)

4. 10% is easy possible if you analyse yourself and i dont trade usually i hold a company longer than 12 month ( taxfree then here in germany)

[1C5]

don't forget the people who trade lots, then comission and slippage= the rake.

just you can't do it doesn't mean it can't be done /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Trades for the day:

sold GZFX Gap +.0003 on 400k +120
in 5k UGHO on earnings .90 out +.05 +250
in 6k TKER on break 1.59 out +.06 avg +360
in 10k XDSL on bounce .16 +.01 +100

Slow day but up 800 hopefully stuff will pick up before the close

not much cash was used just around 17kish

In some AVNA 2k shs @ 2.20(i would have much more if i woulda caught the first break @ 2) on chart (looks like it could fill gap down to 3ish) risking .10 if it doesn't but as i'm typing its moving 2.27

[DesertCat]

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Trades for the day:

sold GZFX Gap +.0003 on 400k +120
in 5k UGHO on earnings .90 out +.05 +250
in 6k TKER on break 1.59 out +.06 avg +360
in 10k XDSL on bounce .16 +.01 +100


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I'm trying to figure out the how. How did you determine that these would be profitable trades?

i posted the reasons right next to them, same as with AVNA (hopefully it can get another 20% day tomorrow)

[DesertCat]

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sold GZFX Gap +.0003 on 400k +120
in 5k UGHO on earnings .90 out +.05 +250
in 6k TKER on break 1.59 out +.06 avg +360
in 10k XDSL on bounce .16 +.01 +100


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OK, why don't you explain what your short-hand means. And how each predicts price movements.

gzfx closed strong and gapped up,
ugho had good earnings
1.58 was resistance on tker over it usually gives a quick break
.15s were holding pretty well on XDSL usually indicates a bottom

[Sniper]

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The highest four year annulized return on marketocracy is 42% (ist.martin ORR 411.65%), far short of 100% or even 400% per year. And out of thousands of portfolios, it's reasonable to assume that statistical variation would produce one lucky enough to do 42% per year.

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Just to clarify, I pointed to Marketocracy as an example of many beating the indexes. Not as an example of potential day trading profits!

Its worth noting that the marketocracy ports must comply with "mutual fund" type rules, have high transaction costs and a management fee built in, and are "long only".

In spite of all those limitations, a large percentage of those ports beat the indexes.

[BradleyT]

Funny no one has shown how to beat 7% yet. Maybe it's like poker, some can win more than 3BB per hour but it's hard to specifically tell someone else exactly how to do it.

[Sniper]

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Funny no one has shown how to beat 7% yet. Maybe it's like poker, some can win more than 3BB per hour but it's hard to specifically tell someone else exactly how to do it.

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There are many ways to beat the market... I believe both Cat and I agree that beating the market is "easy" to anyone willing to invest the time to learn a methodology for doing so.

In ff's posts, he highlighted some of his trades today... it made perfect sense to me, because I understand how he's trading.

I personally use similar technical analysis techniques, but on more well known and higher priced stocks.

Cat takes a different approach, using a value based approach to longer term investing.

There are other professional traders that post here, using different techniques.

Bottom line, there is no one right way to make money in the market... there are many ways that work and beat the indexes.

http://x2.putfile.com/11/32022092852.jpg

http://x2.putfile.com/11/32022140196.jpg

TGTL resistance was 5, I was close to buying some 5-5.05 but this is a thinly trading stock and has wild swings also it had bottomed @ 4.25 and wasn't sure if bounce players would sell on way up killing the break. The reward would have been great at a 2k profit.

[r3vbr]

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http://x2.putfile.com/11/32022140196.jpg

TGTL resistance was 5, I was close to buying some 5-5.05 but this is a thinly trading stock and has wild swings also it had bottomed @ 4.25 and wasn't sure if bounce players would sell on way up killing the break. The reward would have been great at a 2k profit.

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why don't we see technical analysis bilionaires?
Cause it takes like 30 years of compouded interest to reach that number... and technical guys have a few good years and then underperform the market.

if you show me some multi bilionaire technical analisys investors who are beating the market over 30 years, please tell me so.

[Sniper]

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if you show me some multi bilionaire technical analisys investors who are beating the market over 30 years, please tell me so.

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If YOU can't live on a million a year, I can't help you!!

http://www.iasg.com/SnapshotPT.asp?ID=67

Campbell & Company makes trading decisions for each of its portfolios largely pursuant to two distinct proprietary trading models, both of which combine computerized technical trend following with quantitative portfolio management analysis

http://www.iasg.com/cfxtemp/CFT1118_0612183B9.jpg
http://www.iasg.com/cfxtemp/CFT1118_0612193E.jpg

now what was it that you were saying?

blah out -.03 avg

[MrBig30]

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And in the long run only the very lucky or those with insider information beat index by much IMO.

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You are wrong! /images/graemlins/cool.gif

I suggest you take a look at the performance records on marketocracy, for a simple example of many with the demonstrated skill to beat the "baseline" market averages (like the Dow or S&P).

Just like in poker, if you are willing to put in the time to learn "how to do it"... it is "easy".

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I think you sound like a pokerplayer who has been on a lucky run for 10.000 hands and is convinced he can beat the game for 8BB/100 even though people say its impossible in the long run. Compare stocks to poker where it takes 50-100.000 hands+ before you even get close to your actual winrate - how many people have even done 50.000 stock transaction in their life???
If that is a valid comparison maybe the average stocktrader never gets even close to the long run meaning luck is the most important factor.
Myself I will stick to longterm stock investments and hope for 7-10% gain per year average. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Is 7-10% after inflation?

[housenuts]

ok a couple questions

1) for a total beginner to the market (ie. i don't even really know what short means) where should they start? the only thing i have remotely close to stock trading is the book 'Liar's Poker'

2) what is the min. "bankroll" one needs to make trading worthwhile. can you build a "bankroll" starting with say 1k, or is that very impractical?

3) in doing research and analysis, how much graph reading is required? i'm not a big fan of graphs. i like numbers and all that, i just don't like graphs

thanks

[ QUOTE ]
ok a couple questions

1) for a total beginner to the market (ie. i don't even really know what short means) where should they start? the only thing i have remotely close to stock trading is the book 'Liar's Poker'

2) what is the min. "bankroll" one needs to make trading worthwhile. can you build a "bankroll" starting with say 1k, or is that very impractical?

3) in doing research and analysis, how much graph reading is required? i'm not a big fan of graphs. i like numbers and all that, i just don't like graphs

thanks

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1. Starting reading up on the subject. William O'Neal's "How to Make Money in Stocks" is a pretty good beginner's book.

2. I believe 5K is a good starting bankroll. In the beginning, you don't want to invest too much, even if you have the money, as you will go through learning period which requires paying "tuition."

3. As far a graph reading, I find charts invaluable, as I use ratio to market as a major determining factor for the stocks I buy. In other words, I look for stocks that are rising at a rate greater than that of the market as a whole.

Most importantly, don't listen to anyone who tells you it's easy to make money in the stock market. It's not. It takes a long time and requires lots of hard work, patience and discipline. Remember, what you are trying to do is take money from the best money makers in the world.

Good luck

[Sniper]

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Most importantly, don't listen to anyone who tells you it's easy to make money in the stock market. It's not. It takes a long time and requires lots of hard work, patience and discipline.

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It is "easy" to "make money in the stock market", by simply buying index funds!!!

It is also "easy" to beat the indexes, as long as you are willing to put in the "time, hard work, patience and discipline." (and a few other skills)

[Sniper]

Active Trading is not for everyone... but if you are patient, trade with the odds in your favor, win more on your winners than you lose on your losers (risk mgmt), and take advantage of enough opportunities, it can be very profitable.

The same as taking advantage of +EV situations in poker!

wow havnt looked at this thread in a while and i see that it has grown. i will reread it in a bit but let me ask couple of questions. and clarify some things.

1. yes im obviously talking about a 5 figure bankroll.

i am thinking about investing about 5k to start with in the stock market. currently i multitable 400nl. i am making around 5k monthly. what kind of bankroll will i need to invest in the market to reciprocate the winnings i am making in poker. i jus want to have an idea of what kinds of returns is possible (someone mentioned 10%). and how much i would have to risk.

for the 10% return as someone stated is good. i want to clarify some things. if i invest 5k.. does that mean i can expect a 500$ return on the year? thats very small. please clarify how this works.

well if your doing normal invest in mutual funds then avg return based on historical performance is around 10%, if you actively invest and you become good at it, it is obviously much higher.