strange odds

[Bitter]

overcoming shaky hands and a queesy stomach, i played hold 'em live for the first time about 6 months ago after a year of playing every week for dimes and quarters at my house. the game fascinated me and i quickly began devouring every book i could get my hands on. i won the first tournament i ever played (at an indian reservation for $22 buy-in) and now hold my own at $4-$8 after graduating from the maniacs at $3-$6 that call my pocket aces raise before the flop to catch runner-runner straight with their 3,5 offsuit AND the guys at $8-$16 are happy to show me im not yet ready for them. i feel like there is something fundamental im missing and the only thing i dont understand in the literature are certain types of odds. i understand the odds of making my hand, pot odds and implied odds but often (esp. in sklansky's writings) there are references to the effect of:
-there is a 40% chance he has you beat
-there is a 30% chance he will fold if you bet
i can certainly see how these are important to a desicion of check, bet, raise, or fold, BUT i dont understand how to come to those figures while im sitting at the table. to make matters worse, the following mathematics that shows these figures relevance makes my head spin. so even if i was handed the numbers, i couldnt do the math without a calculator and a 30 min break! is there anyone who can help me or am i condemned to a life of EXTREMELY low limit poker? /forums/images/icons/confused.gif

[Mike]

There isn't anything magical about the percentage of someone doing something at the table. You just have have seen them in the situation enough times to be able to determine what they might do.

I have my pain threshold point where I will fold a hand after taking into account those things I feel are important. With the very same hand you may have never seen the flop. A third person may happily go to the river with the same hand.

So, if it's heads up and you have seen me fold the turn 3 out of 5 times, you can entertain the idea that when we are heads up, chances are I will fold more often than I will play. Hope this helps, I think that is the jist of the text.

[inkstain]

You need to be able to read the opponent (determine the hand(s) that they may holding). This comes from experience (studying the opponent, paying attention to the showdown after following their style of play), for the most part. You won't have too many players varying their play and being too deceptive at low-limit, so this should come easy.

[Louie Landale]

The more experienced 8/16 players beat you because:

[1] You probably play ABC which works well against the low-limit players who cannot interpret ABC to mean ABC: they don't know what you have, and even if they do they don't know what it means. The 8/16 players DO interpret ABC to mean ABC and they pretty much know what you have: even bad experienced players know when they are up against an overpair.

[2] The weaker players cannot see beyond their hands and have little notion of how their play affects the opponents: when they hit their flush and raise they assume that the better was bluffing when he folds, and didn't fold a big pair. The more experience players CAN see how they affect you, and can make some pretty standard bluffs: If you raise PF, bet the Ace flop then check the turn, they know you've got KK or QQ, AND they know you may fold it.

A bad experienced player can and will manipulate a solid inexerienced player.

You are playing with your hand face up. You need to, once in a while, play ABx just to mix it up and put some doubt in their minds. That doubt will solve a LOT of problems for you, even if you have no idea when it saves you the pot.

A couple examples follow: [1] routinely check out of the blinds on the flop. This will set up turn steals for you when everybody checks. [2] instead of raising the flop with your flush draw, wait until the turn to raise. [3] check-raise twice in one hand. [4] routinely check-raise the aggressive folk and bet out against the passive folk.

- Louie

- Louie