butchered live hand: TPMK in the blinds with 8 to the flop

[Walker]

CO and button are super loose and both autobet if checked to them (both are in the hand).

MP is tight/slightly passive preflop

I have KJo in BB, 8 see the flop for one bet.

FLOP: K92 rainbow

I check (intending to raise a LP bet), checked to MP1 who bets, two callers, I call, two more callers behind me

Turn: brick

wtf now?

[tyler_cracker]

It sucks that MP bet (instead of those other guys), but you should still raise the flop.

Since you didn't, donk the turn.

[Walker]

[ QUOTE ]
It sucks that MP bet (instead of those other guys), but you should still raise the flop.

Since you didn't, donk the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising the flop doesn't really protect my hand, and I don't really see how it's for value. I'm behind reasonable MP king hands 10 ways, tied 2 and behind 6. I guess I can fold the turn UI if I get three bet. Is that it?

Donk the turn with the intention of folding to a raise?

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising the flop doesn't really protect my hand, and I don't really see how it's for value. I'm behind reasonable MP king hands 10 ways, tied 2 and behind 6. I guess I can fold the turn UI if I get three bet. Is that it?


[/ QUOTE ]

MP could be betting a lot of things that you beat: a worse king, a straight draw, middle pair (something like A9). We don't have nearly enough information to narrow his range to just top pair.

So a flop raise is for value.

Also, by raising you are laying 12:2 == 6:1 to people calling behind you. This means someone calling with a gutshot or a 9 or a 2 is making a mistake.

[ QUOTE ]

Donk the turn with the intention of folding to a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends on how many people are left and what the turn actually is, but i'm calling down a lot of the time.

Btw, if you weren't planning on getting aggressive when you hit top pair with KJo, why are you playing it in the first place?

[Walker]

Maybe the reads I included weren't enough. MP is not betting a gutshot or middle pair. He has K9s, KTs, KJ, KQ, 99, 22, or (outside chance) AK. Against this range I'm behind more than 16 combinations, ahead 2 ways, and splitting 6. If behind I have three really dirty outs.

[ QUOTE ]
...by raising you are laying 12:2=6.1-1 to people calling behind you. This means someone calling with a gutshot or a 9 or a 2 is making a mistake)

[/ QUOTE ]

If I raise (we'll assume MP and the callers will call one more bet to them) players behind me are getting better than 7.5-1 on a call which is really close to the threshhold for a 5 outer. If one person CC's then the next guy is certainly right to call with a 5 outer. With implied odds, a gutshot might even be correct in CC'ing this raise.

[ QUOTE ]
Btw, if you weren't planning on getting aggressive when you hit top pair with KJo, why are you playing it in the first place

[/ QUOTE ]

...I was in the BB. Nevertheless, if I limped on the button it wouldn't really change anything. You play with the information you have available to you at the time.

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe the reads I included weren't enough. MP is not betting a gutshot or middle pair. He has K9s, KTs, KJ, KQ, 99, 22, or (outside chance) AK. Against this range I'm behind more than 16 combinations, ahead 2 ways, and splitting 6. If behind I have three really dirty outs.


[/ QUOTE ]

Here is the read you provided:

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
MP is tight/slightly passive preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I still think your hand range is too narrow given this read (especially since your read is on his *preflop* behavior), but this is a live game, so maybe you just "knew". I'm a live player, so i can sympathize.

If you're so convinced you're behind to his range and drawing to 3 dirty outs, you should just fold.

But clearly you're not going to fold, right? So you should raise. Raising is better than calling.

If he's tight/passive, maybe he'll fold a better K to your aggression. If you are ahead, it's for value. And you're likely to fold at least some hands that you want to fold (an A, for instance), which increases your equity even if you're behind.

[ QUOTE ]
...by raising you are laying 12:2=6.1-1 to people calling behind you. This means someone calling with a gutshot or a 9 or a 2 is making a mistake)

[/ QUOTE ]

If I raise (we'll assume MP and the callers will call one more bet to them) players behind me are getting better than 7.5-1 on a call which is really close to the threshhold for a 5 outer. If one person CC's then the next guy is certainly right to call with a 5 outer. With implied odds, a gutshot might even be correct in CC'ing this raise.

All of this may be true, but raising is still better than calling.

This is not a good time to wait for the turn to protect your hand because you either have to bet out (which lays 8:1 for people behind you -- worse than raising the flop!) or go for a check/raise where the likely bettor is still MP and you're in the same pickle on the turn as you're in now on the flop.

[McGahee]

C/R the turn?

[Walker]

bump