($27) Those darned Tens

[durron597]

Early no read. Villian has folded the first few hands if that helps.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

CO (t1480)
Hero (t1480)
SB (t1480)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1620)
MP2 (t1500)
MP3 (t1440)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t60</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t60, SB calls t50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t200) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets t100</font>, Hero calls t100, SB folds.

Turn: (t400) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t250</font>, MP3 calls t250.

River: (t900) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP3 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: t900

[wuwei]

What range do you put him on when he check/calls the turn?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
What range do you put him on when he check/calls the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

66-QQ (including 99), KJ-, maybe KQ.

[xorbie]

Are you just giving up on the river? No fold equity vs JJ/QQ?

[Femto]

Interesting. He doesn't have a 2, so he's not slowplaying trips. It looks like either 1) he has AK/KQ/KJ and he's got monsters under his bed, or 2) he has a pair QQ or less. Good line, IMO.


Would you have mucked if he fired again on the turn? Does anybody favor a flop raise here to get more info?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you just giving up on the river? No fold equity vs JJ/QQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, that's the question, will a $27 unknown fold JJ or QQ. xorbie, you are a cash game player: in a cash game, how much would you bet on the turn here?

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What range do you put him on when he check/calls the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

66-QQ (including 99), KJ-, maybe KQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's about what I was thinking. I wonder if a bet of 650 on the river is profitable...

[bawcerelli]

i think he had KQ.

[Iamafish]

If it felt right, I would move in on the river.

EDIT: I know, I know, but thats just me.

[Femto]

[ QUOTE ]
If it felt right, I would move in on the river.

EDIT: I know, I know, but thats just me.

[/ QUOTE ]
I like it. Scary board even for AK to call an all in on.

I'm thinking raise the flop and fold to a push.

[Iamafish]

Dont raise the flop, chances are he has the king. I would almost fold that flop since its early (In a $16, no doubt, becuase they WILL show a King).

I'd put him on KQ too, but since its a 27, Id try and pull some fancy work, and hey maybe i could catch something.

[GtrHtr]

He has a K or some other PP, he doesn't have a 2 and checking the river is fine. You got your info on the turn.

[SlackerMcFly]

Villain's timid bet on the flop...hmmmm.

If your plan was to raise on the turn, then use that 250 now to push him off the hand or commit more than 1/2 the pot (his original min-bet).

If he shoves, you can guarantee that he has at least Kx and maybe better. A call of your 350 means almost the same thing IMHO.

I just don't like letting folks see a cheap turn card when I think that I'm ahead.

Beyond that, the hand was played fine IMHO. Best to check it down on the river, he has nothing or is hoping to c/r with any 9, 2 or Kx.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain's timid bet on the flop...hmmmm.

If your plan was to raise on the turn, then use that 250 now to push him off the hand or commit more than 1/2 the pot (his original min-bet).

If he shoves, you can guarantee that he has at least Kx and maybe better. A call of your 350 means almost the same thing IMHO.

I just don't like letting folks see a cheap turn card when I think that I'm ahead.

Beyond that, the hand was played fine IMHO. Best to check it down on the river, he has nothing or is hoping to c/r with any 9, 2 or Kx.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I priced in QQ and JJ too easily on the turn. Would anyone here fold either of those hands to a 350 bet but call a 250 bet?

[SlackerMcFly]

That would be a great read to put him on QQ or JJ and I see your conundrum more clearly. Doubtful that is the case, but this early in the tourney I guess anything is possible.

If your intent was to bet 250 on the turn, of course QQ or JJ is not going away. If your read was JJ or QQ, then the bet of 250 was too weak.

How much should you have bet on the flop to get him out?

Answer: All of your chips (or none). Short of that read, you played the river fine. But I'm a noob with no bankroll.

McMostlyShalacked

[ebaudry]

"I think I priced in QQ and JJ too easily on the turn. Would anyone here fold either of those hands to a 350 bet but call a 250 bet? "

I personally tend to fold QQ/JJ in this kind of scenario early in a tournament, mainly from the idea of my extra skill allowing for higher profitability gambles later on. I'm making the very dangerous assumption that the villain knows about gap, tournament life, etc. Although there is certainly a decent chance you're ahead with QQ/JJ, you might have to commit too many chips (maybe all) to find out, and your drawing super thin if behind to Kx.

To answer your exact question, I would definitely fold QQ/JJ to a pot bet on the Turn from a PF raiser with a King on board. It's just really plausible that a PF could come from AK/KQ/KJ/KK/QQ, so with QQ i'd be hoping you had JJ/TT/99/AQ/AJ/AT, although not too many of those will call the flop bet, combinatorially speaking. With JJ i'd be hoping you had TT/99/AQ/AJ/AT.

I don't think there is much a difference between then 250-350 bets though. I think Harrington recommends 2/3 the pot as a good discouraging bet.

As an aside, I don't think A2 is out of the question for the villian. It's less likely since there are some on the board, but still i see that call all the time.

With your TT, I personally like to raise the flop to find out where I stand. It might end the hand right there, folding out JJ/QQ/AQ/AJ. If called, he'll almost certainly check the turn, and often I see the river then checked, i think because a lot of players are worried the turn check was a trap. (very low buyin tournes excepted). If he bets the river, and you think KJ/KQ/AK are possibilities then you have a "simple" pot odds/combinatorics question depending on the size of his bet, and which range you put him on.

One other advantage of the flop raise vs. calling the flop and potentially the turn, is that the flop raise tends to be a little bit cheaper based on the size of the pot.

Hope this helps.

Hmmm..

Could someone please explain why raising the flop is no good? This might be a leak for me..

[bigt439]

I really don't think you should be trying to fold QQ or JJ at any point in this hand. Seems like an expensive exercise in futility. This looks like a check behind on the river. Why would you not take the free showdown here?