($22) Bubble, middle pair against big stack

***** Hand History for Game 3019811802 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:17324722 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Friday, November 11, 15:09:01 EDT 2005
Table Table 67499 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 4: BigE6548 ( $1325 )
Seat 7: BARNEY_2 ( $1330 )
Seat 3: Bazuulbazuul ( $1405 )
Seat 6: Gurdjieff1 ( $3940 )
Trny:17324722 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Bazuulbazuul [ Th 3c ]
BigE6548 folds.
Gurdjieff1 calls [150].
BARNEY_2 folds.
Bazuulbazuul checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5d, Kh, Ts ]
Bazuulbazuul bets [200].
Gurdjieff1 calls [200].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Kd ]
Bazuulbazuul is all-In.



I feel that I represented K/little-x with my bet on the flop. Now that there is a second K on the table, odds that my opponent has a K of his own dropped quite a bit. I figured pushing here would give me a good chance at winning the pot outright, and if not I still have a good chance to have the best hand.

Is this reasonable?

I like the turn push as his flop call means he's either trapping or doesn't have the K, I think he folds the turn alot of times.

That being said, I'd probably check/fold the flop. I don't like playing OOP in this type of situation. I can never be sure of my hands strenth.

If he's been limping into alot of pots recently, you might want to try to push pf and take the 375 that's already in the pot.

If your willing to go all in, why dont you bet instead of pushing? Say maybe a bet of 600 to give him the chance to bluff with nothing.

[Femto]

[ QUOTE ]
Now that there is a second K on the table, odds that my opponent has a K of his own dropped quite a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this logic valid? It seems so obvious, but something about it doesn't click.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Now that there is a second K on the table, odds that my opponent has a K of his own dropped quite a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this logic valid? It seems so obvious, but something about it doesn't click.

[/ QUOTE ]

This info is valid. By pure math, there were three other Ks he could have on the flop, so his odds were [(3/47)*2]=12.8%. There are two Ks left on the turn, so [(2/46)*2]=8.7%. This of course ignores any factors that his play might have in making a decision. But considering he's a big stack, I wouldn't worry too much about that.

[GtrHtr]

He had AT.

[Femto]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Now that there is a second K on the table, odds that my opponent has a K of his own dropped quite a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this logic valid? It seems so obvious, but something about it doesn't click.

[/ QUOTE ]

This info is valid. By pure math, there were three other Ks he could have on the flop, so his odds were [(3/47)*2]=12.8%. There are two Ks left on the turn, so [(2/46)*2]=8.7%. This of course ignores any factors that his play might have in making a decision. But considering he's a big stack, I wouldn't worry too much about that.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, that's exactly what I thought, but then some crazy idea got into my mind about future events not being able to change past probabilities. He acted the same whether or not we saw that K, and the order of the deck remains the same as before we saw the K. But yeah, I guess you're right. I was just thinking too hard /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[GtrHtr]

In this case, the math of holding a K doesn't matter, he had AT.