Calculating outs/pot odds

Ok, this is a bit lenghty, but stay with me. It may seem like a better question for the probability forum, but my question is more specific to SNGs

I'm reading Harrington's 1st book on tournament hold'em and am currently on the section concerning pot odds.

He takes you through his process of calculating odds by doing something like the following:

"I think his calling range is here is AK-A9, KQ-K10, and pocket 8's on up. I have pocket 9's.

There are 8 different unpaired hands he might call with. There are 16 ways to make each hand. 16x8=128. Of these 128 hands I will win about 75.

He will also call with pocket pairs 8 on up. There are 7 of these. They can be made with 6 combinations. 7x6=42. Of these 42 hands I will win about 9.

So out of 170 hands, I can expect to win 84 if called on this blind steal. I also have some fold equity here so blah blah blah blah..."

You get the idea.

Now, I love how Harrington reasons all this out, and I GET what he's saying. The problem is, I'm not a math guy. I can't calculate this stuff in 10 seconds. It would take me at least 30 seconds, probably more.

How do I apply this to online SNGs where you only have 20 seconds to make a decision? Do I keep a chart nearby and memorize it? Do I give myself practice hands at home and do the math hoping that I get quicker at it?

I know the top SNG players must be doing something very similar to Harrington as they're playing. Any tips on a quick system of calculating my odds?

pot odds are much simpler than that.

http://www.pokertips.org/glossarydefs/10.php

Pot Odds
This is the odds you are getting when you are drawing, without considering future bets. Basically, if you are drawing to hit your hand, you want to make sure there is enough money in the pot to justify drawing. The way you do this is you calculate your expected value of hitting your hand, which is called pot odds.

The simple mathematical formula for pot odds is:

(pot + bet) * (chance of hitting) >= bet

For example, say you have a flush draw of diamonds. You are fairly certain you will win if you hit the flush but will lose otherwise. Thus, there are 9 other diamonds out there (13 - your two, - two on board), so you have a roughly 19% chance of hitting a flush on the next card. If the pot is 90, and the bet is 10, you have odds with your flush draw.

(90 +10) *.19= 19
19>10, so you should call

However, lets say the pot is 10, you're at the turn (one card left) and your opponent bets 40. So the pot is 50 (including his bet) and the bet is 40 to you.

(50 + 40) *.19= 17.1
17.1 < 40, so you should fold.

[nuclear500]

I think if you're thinking that long and hard about pot odds and outs in a SnG either:

A) You don't have that quick an understand of outs and percentages based on the common number of outs in a certain situation

B) You can't type "calc" at Start/Run fast enough.

C) You're thinking too much about the numbers.


To answer you question about how to get quicker? Just understand the basic out/percentages. Worrying about preflop calling in a SnG seems like a waste of time to me, worry about it when the flop comes otherwise you will think yourself off your hand before the community even comes.

Besides, even if you put him on a calling range of your 99 raise that say includes KT and it comes Ten high and you've practically already thought yourself off the hand by thinking you only wanted to see babies.


Maybe I don't know what I'm talking about, but thats my $.02 and its worth about $.01

still confused. this simply means that if you have 2 diamonds in your hand and 2 diamonds hit the flop. You know of 5 known cards (the other 47 cards you do not know where they are at). If you assume that only a flush will win it for you then you have 9 remaining cards to hit your flush. 47 cards remaining in the deck, 9 of which will give you a winning hand, 38 of which will not. your ratio then is approx 4 to 1, 4:1 (38 to 9, 38:9). If you factor in that you have 2 cards to go that will increase your chances by 2. so you could accept odds as low as 2:1.

Now in his example the bet was 10 and the pot was already 90. You need at least 2:1 odds to call this bet. The ratio of the pot to the bet is 100:10 or 10:1. These odds are much better than 2:1, so you would call the bet.

The second part of the example says that the pot is only 10 and the bet is 40. The ratio of the pot to bet is now 50:40 or 5:4 or 1.25:1. We already found in order to be getting the right odds on the call you would need 2:1 odds. you are only getting 1.25:1. This is a fold.

I think it is easier to think of pot odds in terms of a ratio than percentages etc... A lot simpler to do the quick math in your head at game time.

another example would be with a pocket pair (say 6's). If you think the only way you can win is to hit a set of 6's then you only have 2 cards left in the deck that will win you the pot(a 2 outer). Again the 3 flop cards are known as well as the 2 in your hand. So you know 5 cards and do not know where the other 47 cards are. this is a ratio of 45:2 (remaining cards to outs you have) or 22.5:1 (but with 2 cards remaining, your odds are improved to 11.25:1). In the first betting scenario 11.25:1 would not be good odds enough to call a 10:1 bet (pot to bet).

This is pot odds.

Hope this helped.

Well, thanks for your reply, but honestly I don't need to be taught about pot odds.

I'm talking specifically about Harrington's process of putting someone on a range of hands and calulating his odds of beating those hands. This is probably only useful when deciding preflop all-in situations, so maybe I confused the issue a bit.

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Worrying about preflop calling in a SnG seems like a waste of time to me, worry about it when the flop comes otherwise you will think yourself off your hand before the community even comes.


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I would only be thinking about this during bubble play during push/fold situations. Perhaps I wasn't clear.

In sngs you will run into similar situaions repeatedly where your opponents will have similar calling ranges so if you really wanted to it would not be hard to calculate some calling ranges and use these whenever you run into a situation that qualifies. But really, you don't need to do this, because if you have played enough sngs, you get an intuitive sense of what Harrington is talking about, so you intuitively know when it is right to push and when it is not even if you do not know if it is exactly mathematically correct. You may be able to squeeze out a little bit more in the long run by calculating every time, but, especially if you are multi-tabling, this tiny added benefit may not be worth the time it takes.
Hope that helps - I was also intrigued by that section in Harrington

[tigerite]

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Worrying about preflop calling in a SnG seems like a waste of time to me, worry about it when the flop comes otherwise you will think yourself off your hand before the community even comes.


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I would only be thinking about this during bubble play during push/fold situations. Perhaps I wasn't clear.

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On the bubble is when pot odds are the least useful.

[GtrHtr]

There are two simple ways to calculate your hand odds. Harrington mentions one, figuring out the number combinations of possible hands based on the # of cards in the deck of that type/combination and then calculating your hand against that range.

The other way is this (http://www.pokerstove.com/) where you can play around with various scenarios putting your hand against a range of hands or a specific hand if you narrow down the range that far. After a while, you will begin to remember odds for hands like AK v 55 or whatever while you are playing.

[Femto]

For what its worth, King Yao's book improved my pot odds calculating. Best book out there on the topic, IMO.

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On the bubble is when pot odds are the least useful.

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????? I would think this is where it would be significantly useful. Granted, you would also have to factor your fold equity.

Care to explain this statement further?

[Femto]

He probably means they are useless because of ICM. See the FAQ, read about it, and buy SNGPT.