**Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)

[EverettKings]

Cross-posted from MTT

A couple weeks back, in this thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=tourn&Number=3722409&Sear chpage=2&Main=3722409&Words=%2Bquick+%2Bguide+%2Bs atellite&topic=&Search=true#Post3722409) about satellite strategy, Adanthar made this claim:

[ QUOTE ]

[*I am open to a $1000 or more wager that I can make it from a miniStep 1 (5+1) to a miniStep 5 (400+30) playing on $30 or less. I'd make it less than that but I've gotta leave room for aces getting cracked. Of course, this blatantly ignores $/hour.]

[/ QUOTE ]

And what do we do on 2+2 when someone make some fat spankingly outrageous claim like that? Why, we wager of course.

So after a few PMs, we settle on a bet of $1,000. Adanthar has an account with $30 in it, can play only ministep 1s (and any freerolls earned thereafter). If he at any time gets an entry into a ministep 5, he wins and gets a shiny trophy (read: ten benjamins). If he has run his account to less than enough to buy in to a ministep 1 and has no freerolls left, I win the trophy and he gets a certificate of participation.


Since the money has been sent to an intermediary and the games begun, we can both now explain why we're so goddamn certain that we're getting the best of it. I estimate his chance of success to be 25%. I'm assuming that he's an outstanding player.

Would like to see what some of you think about this as the games play out, and what Adanthar has to say about it.

And boy am I ever going to have to eat my words if he makes it.

Everett

[Apathy]

I don't understand why he agreed to do this bet for so little money considering the many hours this will surely take.

I'm rooting for Adanthar...but I don't think he can pull it off. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why he agreed to do this bet for so little money considering the many hours this will surely take.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah that's a kicker of sorts, but he explicitly told me that he was going to figure out his $/hr before accepting this. Apparantly its still ok. Especially since if he wins, he probalby gets somemoney at the step 5 level.

[ QUOTE ]

I'm rooting for Adanthar...but I don't think he can pull it off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously you have to root for him. Rooting for me is like rooting for the house. Or the yankees. Yuck.

This is the not g00t bet becase there are great player at the upper level and he will likely lose there becase people at the high level play there all the time.

[adanthar]

Results so far:

6 entries. 5 rerolls. 1 loss that was my fault (pushed 2 pair ran into a straight, should've check/folded.) There's a AA vs. AA all in loss and a bunch of lost 70/30's in there but whatever, I can reroll until I stop running bad.

We'll see how it goes from here, I'll be playing mostly in the evenings.

[Nicholasp27]

this has inspired me

i'm gonna set aside $30 and try to win myself an entry to a ministep 5

i just play in the evenings anyway, so it's not like i have to worry about $/hour

if i make it (and win the mini step 5), plasma tv, if not, ramen noodles for a week

[ QUOTE ]
This is the not g00t bet becase there are great player at the upper level and he will likely lose there becase people at the high level play there all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

adanthar = g00t plahyzheerzlkh
he had very many skzierlzlasd
doubt dont g00t player

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why he agreed to do this bet for so little money considering the many hours this will surely take.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah that's a kicker of sorts, but he explicitly told me that he was going to figure out his $/hr before accepting this. Apparantly its still ok. Especially since if he wins, he probalby gets somemoney at the step 5 level.

[ QUOTE ]

I'm rooting for Adanthar...but I don't think he can pull it off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously you have to root for him. Rooting for me is like rooting for the house. Or the yankees. Yuck.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would rather root for the house on the nickel slots than root for the Yankees.

[dogsballs]

So for 30 bucks you basically get 5 swings at it?

I'd assume adanthar can chug through the first couple levels with rerolls on any particular buyin (barring disaster). That's assuming the opposition is very poor. What'll we give him ?...60% to make it thru 1 & 2 on any particular buyin? (edit: this is a low no I reckon, so don't feel offended ad...)

So what's the chances of him getting thru levels 3 & 4? I have no idea, but I'll put my money on the player here.

Anyone wanna side bet here..? I got $50 ready to put on adanthar. Post here anyone interested.

I will take $50 against Adanthar, neteller ok?

adanthar isn't the type to make wildly irrational -EV claims off the top of his head... i say he gets there...

[dogsballs]

[ QUOTE ]
I will take $50 against Adanthar, neteller ok?

[/ QUOTE ]


ok. lets send our 50's to a willing 3rd party. Maybe the OP would hold it for us. I'll PM him.

[gildwulf]

I'd bet 200 against if the bet is still on.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I will take $50 against Adanthar, neteller ok?

[/ QUOTE ]


ok. lets send our 50's to a willing 3rd party. Maybe the OP would hold it for us. I'll PM him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cool, PM me with the details of the third party etc...

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
adanthar isn't the type to make wildly irrational -EV claims off the top of his head... i say he gets there...

[/ QUOTE ]

Anyone remember Irieguy's blindfold challenge?

Very good players sometimes do strange things:P

[Nicholasp27]

for the average player:

level 1: 10% advance, 40% reroll, 10% $4 cash, 30% lose money

level 2: 20% advance, 30% reroll, 40% go back one step, 10% lose


once to level 2, i'm pretty sure he can almost always at least get a freeroll to one of the first 3 levels, as only 10th drops out, so the only times that will happen is if he gets all-in on early level with aa/kk or some other suckout

level 1 u gotta get top 5 every time (tho 6 gives u 2/3 of another buyin)

level 3 u just need top 8 to stay in and level 4 u just need top 9...

so level 1 is really the most dangerous level, but it's also the easiest


maybe adanthar shoulda made the bet to get $32 to start instead of 30, as he'll prolly get 6th at some point (or maybe 9th on mini 3) and the extra $2 woulda given him another chance...doubt everett woulda turned down the bet if u did that

[Nicholasp27]

neteller charges 1.9% transfer fee for u to transfer to the 3rd party and then another 1.9% for them to transfer to the winner...so u both got a built-in vig to beat

[gildwulf]

Level 2-4 is a maze, dude.

[dogsballs]

[ QUOTE ]
neteller charges 1.9% transfer fee for u to transfer to the 3rd party and then another 1.9% for them to transfer to the winner...so u both got a built-in vig to beat

[/ QUOTE ]


I don't care. It's fun. But a poker site transfer works too.

Im not to concerned, Adanthar is a great player and all, but I doubt he has 1000%+ ROI in these things.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
neteller charges 1.9% transfer fee for u to transfer to the 3rd party and then another 1.9% for them to transfer to the winner...so u both got a built-in vig to beat

[/ QUOTE ]


I don't care. It's fun. But a poker site transfer works too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Has to be Neteller

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is the not g00t bet becase there are great player at the upper level and he will likely lose there becase people at the high level play there all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

adanthar = g00t plahyzheerzlkh
he had very many skzierlzlasd
doubt dont g00t player

[/ QUOTE ]

Would've been better if in the great form of Haiku:

Adanthar g00t
Much poker skill has this guy
Don't doubt g00t player

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
Results so far:

6 entries. 5 rerolls. 1 loss that was my fault (pushed 2 pair ran into a straight, should've check/folded.) There's a AA vs. AA all in loss and a bunch of lost 70/30's in there but whatever, I can reroll until I stop running bad.

We'll see how it goes from here, I'll be playing mostly in the evenings.

[/ QUOTE ]]

So you used up one of your 5 entries so far?

[EverettKings]

As seen in MTT, I am open to ALL sidebets from anyone up to $100 (minimum $20). PM me and we'll work it out.

Im juking between two forums but ill try to keep it straight.

Dogs, you PM limit is reached. Basically I want to to take you bet myself since im doing numerous other sidebets, but i'll moderate any other bets if you like.

Everett

[gildwulf]

I would wager against him if he could see the cards face up.

[ QUOTE ]
I would wager against him if he could see the cards face up.

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be very -EV.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would wager against him if he could see the cards face up.

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be very -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I would wager against him if he could see the cards face up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Clearly you are not familiar with the recent advances in magic glasses theory. Paul Philips has it covered here, extempore.livejournal.com.

[gildwulf]

Ok, I'm exaggerating but the variance in these is a bitch. I'm guessing the best players on six buy-ins might have like 20% chance of getting there on such a limited bankroll...

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I'm exaggerating but the variance in these is a bitch. I'm guessing the best players on six buy-ins might have like 20% chance of getting there on such a limited bankroll...

[/ QUOTE ]

Quote me much?

[gildwulf]

No?

[dogsballs]

[ QUOTE ]
As seen in MTT, I am open to ALL sidebets from anyone up to $100 (minimum $20). PM me and we'll work it out.

Im juking between two forums but ill try to keep it straight.

Dogs, you PM limit is reached. Basically I want to to take you bet myself since im doing numerous other sidebets, but i'll moderate any other bets if you like.

Everett

[/ QUOTE ]


I cleared out my PM box (shouldnt keep copies of sent PM's).

Ok. Well, I already agreed to who knows' wager. How about me and who knows send you $52 each (the $2 to cover any of your neteller transfer fees).

Can you PM me and who knows your neteller acct id so we can punt you that to hold?

thanks

[Scuba Chuck]

Adanthar's real challenge is navigating through STEP 1 & 2. If he gets more than 1 to STEP 3, I think it's easy sailing. There's just so many bad beats on L1 & 2. This is where the real trouble is.

[rwesty]

I think with $30, he is a dog in this bet. With $50 he would be a favorite. Somewhere in the $40s is the breakeven point.

[cha59]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm rooting for Adanthar...but I don't think he can pull it off. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

This is possible for players of far less ability than Adanthar.

I say he will do it. GL Adanthar! /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[ QUOTE ]
As seen in MTT, I am open to ALL sidebets from anyone up to $100 (minimum $20). PM me and we'll work it out.


Im juking between two forums but ill try to keep it straight.

Dogs, you PM limit is reached. Basically I want to to take you bet myself since im doing numerous other sidebets, but i'll moderate any other bets if you like.

Everett

[/ QUOTE ]

Any way to get on your side of the bet. You have WAY the best of it.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As seen in MTT, I am open to ALL sidebets from anyone up to $100 (minimum $20). PM me and we'll work it out.


Im juking between two forums but ill try to keep it straight.

Dogs, you PM limit is reached. Basically I want to to take you bet myself since im doing numerous other sidebets, but i'll moderate any other bets if you like.

Everett

[/ QUOTE ]

Any way to get on your side of the bet. You have WAY the best of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check the same post in MTT.

[bawcerelli]

if i were adanthar, i'd just have someone pass me some chips in each of my tourneys.

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm rooting for Adanthar...but I don't think he can pull it off. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

This is possible for players of far less ability than Adanthar.

I say he will do it. GL Adanthar! /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course it's possible, the point is how probable.

[ QUOTE ]
if i were adanthar, i'd just have someone pass me some chips in each of my tourneys.

[/ QUOTE ]
You mean cheat?

[ QUOTE ]
if i were adanthar, i'd just have someone pass me some chips in each of my tourneys.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume if the account gets frozen by party, adanthar loses.

Also, I think we can trust him not to cheat.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
if i were adanthar, i'd just have someone pass me some chips in each of my tourneys.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well then thank god I'm not betting with you. I'm betting with a Adanthar.

Besides, he's a lawyer: he wouldn't lie, cheat or steal if his job depended on it. Wait a tick....


Everett

[cha59]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm rooting for Adanthar...but I don't think he can pull it off. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

This is possible for players of far less ability than Adanthar.

I say he will do it. GL Adanthar! /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course it's possible, the point is how probable.

[/ QUOTE ]

All he has to do is get to the step 5, not win it. Once you get past step 1, the top two places move up. Its hard to get knocked all the way out of these.

I dont know what the odds are, but I like his chances.

[bones]

[ QUOTE ]
There's just so many bad beats on L1 & 2. This is where the real trouble is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Poker is 5% luck, 10% bad beats, all the rest skill.

[valenzuela]

forum experience of wild prop bets:
Irieguy: LOSE
Gigabet : LOSE
Adanthar: xxxx

Btw we are talking about great posters, we arent talking about the avg. dude that beats the 33s.


PS:I feel like puking every time I see one of those " the lower buy-ins are hard because of bad beats".( yep thats u scuba...)

[beeyjay]

I agree but don't think this should be enough to make you think he is a good bet here. That said my money is on him.

[Freudian]

There is no way this is a +EV bet for Adanthar. That said, he might pull it off if he hits a lucky streak.

[EverettKings]

Alright, this thing definitely dragged on for much longer than it should, but apparantly these ministeps were a real pain/bore to play so it took a few prods to get adanthar to finish these suckers but....

Adanthar busted. Sweeeeeeeeeeeet-- I mean, how unfortunate.

If you go to my
Ministep Calculator (http://www.duke.edu/~edw19/poker/ministep.html)

you can tinker with a little applet I made to simulate the ministep challenge. It just takes your given bankroll and (based on the given percentages) simulates stepping through the levels until you either hit step 5 or don't have enough $$ to buy in any more. It does this a few thousand times (or however many times you tell it to) and spits out some data. Anyway.

I thought that the numbers that I gave Adanthar in that applet were quite generous, and he came out to be about 25% to succeed. I don't doubt that he's an outstanding tournament (and satellite) player, but a >1000% ROI is a little trickier to achieve than it seems.

I dealt with this stuff a whiiiiiiiile ago (when these ministeps were brand new) to figure out if they were worth playing. After playing a bunch to get a feel for my chances and running some numbers, I basically came to three conclusions:
1) The ROI is HUGE for a good player.
2) The variance on cashes is ENORMOUS and you need to really invest in this and be sure that you're a winner.
3) The number of games that you have to play is GINORMONSTROUS. For a strong player, on average, youll play about 80 games (mostly in the form of step 1 freerolls) for every step 5 entry that you earn. So that means 160 games per cash. Though you'll have only paid about 8 buy ins. Do the math and it's like $30-$40 bucks an hour, but considering the absurd variance, you'd have to be a very patient soul to play these properly.


I wish I could give some more satisfying numbers on Adanthar's performance (like finish distributions at each step, etc), but party is being stubborn loading the account activity so I'll give a quick synopsis (Adanthar will probably chime in later).
A) Adanthar ran badly. No doubt about that. But that's part of the intolerable variance of this little challenge.
B) He didn't get past ministep 3. He spent almost all (maybe 85%) of his steps on ministep 1.
C) I would gladly take this bet up again with anyone.



It's amazing how split the forum was on the outcome of this bet when it turned out to be so heavily one-sided (or so I still think). It just goes to show you how bad we people are, intuitively, at grasping fuzzy probabilities and understanding the depths of variance. Doing computations away from the table can help fine-tune your intuition, not to mention keep you from getting an ear full of cider.

Cheers,

Everett

When they say freeroll to the next Step, do they credit your account with the entry+buyin and you can do whatever you want with that money? Or do you have to use it specifically for that next step?

[pergesu]

Nah, they don't give you cash. They just give you an entry into the particular step, so that when you sign up for one there's a "pay with cash" or "use an entry"

It's still interesting nonetheless. I never looked into it until just now. After I finish my bonus on AbsolutePoker, I'm going to try it out. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

After cashing out a pretty large chunk of my bankroll to care for the holidays and year-end family expenses back in November, I had to find a way to build back up. When I looked at the options, I simply didn't want to invest countless hours at the micro games clearing bonuses, so I looked to SNG's, partly because I wanted to develop my NL touney skills, and partly because I was sick of ring games.

I've usually done fairly well at the $11-$33 level, but the variance just seemed too steep for my meager BR, so I decided to try the mini-steps instead. I took my measely $220 I had left and gave it a go.

After a few attempts at the mini #1 (one buy-in, a couple freerolls), I looked at the structure again and came up with the following plan:

1) Buy directly into Mini #2 ($20+2)
2) Play for 5th place
3) Turn on the jets when I'm guaranteed a re-roll into my current step level.

Now, I have admit I've put in about 160+ hours this month into this, and had to play COUNTLESS re-rolls and a few dropbacks (twice from 4 back to 2) but I've had the following results:

10 Direct Buy-ins = $220
2 Bust-outs before Step 5
1 Finish OOM on Step 5 (Finished 7th)
7 Cashes on Step 5 - (2)5th=$400, (4)3rd=$2000, (1)1st= $2000

$4400 total winnings, $220 Fees = $4180 profit, at roughly 160 hours = $26/Hr.

Now, I know this doesn't seem like a lot to most people, but considering the bone-dry bankroll I started with, this worked out very well. Not only have I built up enough to be flexable again hunting the bonus $, but I've also given myself a cushion to deal with the variance again on the $11's and $22's.

For me, this was far more advantageous than grinding out bonuses playing micro-limits, and had a more manageable risk/reward factor than just playing the standard SNG's. I forced myself to play smarter poker overall when the game was still 5+ handed, and got to really work on honing my short-handed skills after I met my top-5 finish goal. And of course, once reaching the final table, I had to really focus on the game and play to the best of my ability against a wild range of competition (the same gentleman who took me out on my only non-cash final table was, ironically, the same guy I beat HU in my only victory two days later).

I'm going to continue next month with this strategy, so I'll fire up PT and crunch some hard numbers for you guys if you're interested. But I wanted to throw this little story out there because I've found it to be a very good alternative to the standard bankroll-building grind.

Thanks for listening,

MotorCityMike

[pergesu]

k I didn't read the whole thing...all I read was something like, "My roll was too small for the variance of 11s, so I decided to play mini-steps instead." That seems like 110% backwards to me.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
k I didn't read the whole thing...all I read was something like, "My roll was too small for the variance of 11s, so I decided to play mini-steps instead." That seems like 110% backwards to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't bother reading the rest, he lucksacked not busting his roll.

But it's not necessarily a bad thing to do...just ridiculously time consuming and high variance.

Yugoslav

[ QUOTE ]
That seems like 110% backwards to me

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought so too, at first, but found it much easier to accept lower finishes (usually 4th-5th place) when I knew, at the least, I'd get another freeroll into the same step. Granted, I found that I had to take a much different approach to each game than I would a normal SNG, but that wasn't all too bad.

[ QUOTE ]
Don't bother reading the rest, he lucksacked not busting his roll.

But it's not necessarily a bad thing to do...just ridiculously time consuming and high variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not really sure about the first statement. With the finishing structure above level 1, ensuring a "second chance" is fairly easy.

To Quickly summarize:

<u>Mini-Step 2</u>
Place - 1,2 - Entry to Mini-Step 3
Place - 3-5 - Entry to Mini-Step 2
Place - 6-9 - Entry to Mini-Step 1 *This is the most critical finishing spot to avoid
Place - 10 - Thanks for Playing

<u>Mini-Step 3</u>
Place - 1,2 - Entry to Mini-Step 4
Place - 3,4 - Entry to Mini-Step 3
Place - 5,6 - Entry to Mini-Step 2
Place - 7,8 - Entry to Mini-Step 1 *
Place - 9,10 - Thanks for Playing

<u>Mini-Step 4</u>
Place - 1,2 - Entry to Mini-Step 5
Place - 3-5 - Entry to Mini-Step 4
Place - 6,7 - Entry to Mini-Step 3
Place - 8 - Entry to Mini-Step 2
Place - 9 - Entry to Mini-Step 1 *
Place - 10 - Thanks for Playing

<u>Mini-Step 5</u>
Place 1-5 - $$$
Place 6-10 - Thanks for playing

Again, I had a two-fold reason for trying this, the main being that I simply didn't want to grind out the micros for bonus money and 2-4BB an hour. Sure, it would've probably been easier to just buy into 20 $11's and hope for a positive return, but I figured it was a lot safer to work on ensuring a top-5 finish and try to outplay a small table for 2 spots than it is to consistantly outplay an entire table for 3 spots.

FWIW, I don't claim to be any kind of expert on the subject. It was an experiment that turned profitable and got me back on my feet, so I thought I'd share the story. I'd be really interested to read more about the research into these structures, though, to see why all the negative press.

I'll never claim I wasn't lucky during my run, but I'd like to think I had a little skill and a good gameplan.

[jmillerdls]

so, you don't think you lucksacked in the Step 5's? If not, I'd start buying straight into those if you think you can money 6 out of 7 times with regularity.

By your reasoning:

$4400 Prize - $220 buy-ins (10 Step 2) = $4180 profit
$4400 Prize - $4300 buy-ins (10 Step 5) = $100 profit

Let's say all I do is finish 5th twice out of my 10 buy-ins and 7 Step 5 tries:

$400 Prize - $220 Buy-ins (10 step 2) = $180 profit
$400 Prize - $4300 Buy-ins (10 step 5) = $3900 loss

Pretty easy to see why I would chose NOT to do that

(Not to mention that I never said I could finish in the money 6 of 7 times on a Step 5, and I only had a couple hundred bucks to start jackhole)

[jmillerdls]

well, we can all see that isn't your bankroll now, right?

So, you are saying that even though you weren't a luckbox in your 7 step 5's, you wouldn't continue to just buyin into them if you could finish ITM 6 out of 7 times on a regular basis? Wow, can't imagine anyone not doing that...well, good luck with your steps.

[hestetyven]

Do you get rackeback on all the step entrys you win?

I agree with Mike. The mini steps are a decent investment for someone with a low bankroll which I think was the gist of his post. If you are just starting out they are ideal as you get a lot of games and SnG practice for your buck. Someone depositing $50 into Party probably isn't looking to grind out 2 BB's an hour and wants a bit fun for his little investment.

I deposited $50 into Party in October for the sole reason of playing them. I was grinding the micro's on Bet365 and saw the structure and it looked possible to get a payday for $6 investment.

Mini Step Structure (http://www.partypoker.com/news/events/mini-steps-05.html)

I got addicted to them and played them soldidly for over a month and you could say I luckboxed seven Step 5's, cashing in 6 of them for around $5000 but I had the same gameplan as Mike, aim for the top 5 replay then go for the top 2 which is a lot different than playing a standard SnG. Even in Step 1 I was happy with 6th place as you got most of your money back again.

I found the Step 1-3 pretty soft and the Step 4 a rock garden most of the time. I was seeing the same players in step 3 and 4 a lot over the month so I knew their style of play which helped. Whereas if you are playing $11 or $22 SnG's you are playing different players most of the time.

You also get a good mix of game if you are a beginner. You get the loose maniac step 1 and 2 to practice at. Then the 1000 chip start from Step 3 onwards which a low bankroll player would rarely get to play. The rock garden Step 4. Then the good player Step 5 which has it's regular buy in'ers and very good players. You probably get to play a pro like Zee Justin or whatever. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

For the fun casual player improving his game they are top value.

There are a lot of players who play the steps exclusively and are generally multi tabling maybe sitting at a Step 2, 3, 4 &amp; 5 at the same time. They must be making some cash from it. They must see it as +EV thing to do.

I stopped playing them in December and played normal SnG's and have done well and that's probably because of playing 100's of Mini Step games and the practice. I'm going to go back to them for January and see if it was all just pure luck. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

I'm rambling.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
After cashing out a pretty large chunk of my bankroll to care for the holidays and year-end family expenses back in November, I had to find a way to build back up. When I looked at the options, I simply didn't want to invest countless hours at the micro games clearing bonuses, so I looked to SNG's, partly because I wanted to develop my NL touney skills, and partly because I was sick of ring games.

I've usually done fairly well at the $11-$33 level, but the variance just seemed too steep for my meager BR, so I decided to try the mini-steps instead. I took my measely $220 I had left and gave it a go.

After a few attempts at the mini #1 (one buy-in, a couple freerolls), I looked at the structure again and came up with the following plan:

1) Buy directly into Mini #2 ($20+2)
2) Play for 5th place
3) Turn on the jets when I'm guaranteed a re-roll into my current step level.

Now, I have admit I've put in about 160+ hours this month into this, and had to play COUNTLESS re-rolls and a few dropbacks (twice from 4 back to 2) but I've had the following results:

10 Direct Buy-ins = $220
2 Bust-outs before Step 5
1 Finish OOM on Step 5 (Finished 7th)
7 Cashes on Step 5 - (2)5th=$400, (4)3rd=$2000, (1)1st= $2000

$4400 total winnings, $220 Fees = $4180 profit, at roughly 160 hours = $26/Hr.

Now, I know this doesn't seem like a lot to most people, but considering the bone-dry bankroll I started with, this worked out very well. Not only have I built up enough to be flexable again hunting the bonus $, but I've also given myself a cushion to deal with the variance again on the $11's and $22's.

For me, this was far more advantageous than grinding out bonuses playing micro-limits, and had a more manageable risk/reward factor than just playing the standard SNG's. I forced myself to play smarter poker overall when the game was still 5+ handed, and got to really work on honing my short-handed skills after I met my top-5 finish goal. And of course, once reaching the final table, I had to really focus on the game and play to the best of my ability against a wild range of competition (the same gentleman who took me out on my only non-cash final table was, ironically, the same guy I beat HU in my only victory two days later).

I'm going to continue next month with this strategy, so I'll fire up PT and crunch some hard numbers for you guys if you're interested. But I wanted to throw this little story out there because I've found it to be a very good alternative to the standard bankroll-building grind.

Thanks for listening,

MotorCityMike

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly how you can beat these ministeps if you're patient enough to put in the hours. You will reroll MAAAAAAAAANY MAAAAAAAAAAAAANY times, but you can avoid busting with enough care. This seems counterintuitive and "noobish" to the normal STT crowd, as playing just to get into the money is clearly suboptimal in a normal structure, especially since it is this very thinking that players here profit from exploiting in a normal STT.

However, in a ministep the structure is so different that this strategy, assuming that few people use it, may not be far from optimal. Busting in 4th or in 10th doesn't matter in a regular game, so passing up a small edge early is retarded (especially since those chips will give you huge bubble leverage later). But here where the money is far more distributed, busting on the bubble is actually quite good if it allows you to reroll, and passing up those small early edges prevent you from busting and makes your investments last. This does come at the cost of fewer wins, but if you play properly and patiently you can have a lot of low-percentage shots at moving up. You can almost fold your way to a reroll in ministep 1, for example.

However... cashing in 7 of 8 step 5s is absurdly fortunate. On average, for 8 buyins you'll get 8*400 = $3200(assuming youre an average player, maybe only $2000 for a weak player or $4000 for a fantastic player, but $4400 is basically unsubstainable), meaning more like $20/hr for a typical run.

Also, because you get so few step 5 shots, you could easily bust in 7 of the 8 of them or you could only get 4 shots and bust in 3, giving you one $400 cash in 160 hours for a whopping $2.50/hr. Ouch.

That's why these things are really only for people who:
1) Have no real bankroll
2) Can't afford (or don't want to) make a real investment
3) Are playing mostly just for fun and would enjoy just playing a match and rerolling.

A lot of new players fit this description and it's not a bad system, since you really cant lose more than a dozen step 1 buyins without cashing if you play them right (and don't get impatient, since it may take weeks and weeks to complete).

So hats off to you for doing so well Mike, but I hope that with your new-found bankroll you can break into some better poker games. Play some .5/$1 NL cash games, play 200 $11 STTs, hell play Omaha or Stud. Now you can afford to find other ways to make money.

Good luck.

Everett