11 - ITM Strategy Situation

[Rambino]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (3 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

SB (t3925)
Hero (t3800)
Button (t275)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t475</font>, Hero calls t275.

Flop: (t950) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB pushes; Hero folds.

Turn: (t950) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t950) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t950


I am reasonably sure that I have the best hand at this point, but certainly not positive. I figure I have good chip position, the low stack is very low, and I can afford to toss a probable winner to ensure 2d place. If the stacks are more even I call here.

Am I being a total weenie or conservative smart?

I would fold this...

I didn't see the orginal Button involved and wondered how we knew what the Turn and River would be. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I don't think you're being a weenie.

Well, if you push and you're wrong, you're almost still certainly ahead of the button, so the likely worst case scenario is that if you do have the best hand, winning this hand gives you an almost guaranteed first, and losing gives you an almost guaranteed second. Either you or SB almost certainly has Button beat.

This would depend a lot on my read of SB and how the SB thought of me. That push is saying "I don't want you in the hand, and I think I've got Button beat."

If it's me, I think I'm pushing this. I'm willing to bet that the SB is pushing specifically so that you are forced into this really tough decision, and there's a very good chance you're ahead here.

It also depends on whether or not you feel you can outplay SB heads-up, since if you fold, that's where this is heading. I still think your best odds to "finish" the match might be right here, even before it gets heads-up.

If you win you will have 95% of the chips right? So you could risk 5 bucks to almost certainly win 10, you're reasonably sure you're ahead, and you fold.

You are being a weenie!

[swiftrhett]

I call here. From some estimates, I believe it is +EV by a few dollars.

I'm somewhat surprised about the fold comments. I would call this almost instantly.

Reasoning:

a) There's not much hands that you are behind. And IF he had one of those hands, he would play this much slower.

b) If you win this, you're guaranteed winner. Play for the win when ITM.

[bluefeet]

Is shortie-button in the hand or not?? I know the converter goes crazy sometimes. I don't see him in PF, your PF call doesn't indicate so, and the flop pot doesn't reflect it -- yet we see the turn+river on your fold??

If he's in, it's an easy call IMO.

If he's not? You're weighing the option of perhaps outplaying him HU vs. VERY likely taking the whole thing right now. PF raise or not, TP2K is awfully strong. Considering the insignificants between 3rd and your 'guaranteed' 2nd, I would have no regrets calling his push here. Do I think folding is horrible? No, not horrible. (Edit: Not to mention that if he's NOT in the pot - SB is playing this rediculously fast. Maybe a purposeful "overbet" with AA, AQ, set...but just as likely a mid-PP, completely whiffed Ace, "he can't call this" kind of push. Given the stacks/blinds in play, I'd expect a "strong hand" to play this for some value as HU approaches.)

[swiftrhett]

I'll generously assume he makes an average of $2 / SNG. Making 1 move that wipes away more than that is pretty horrible, I think.

[ QUOTE ]
Do I think folding is horrible? No, not horrible.

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[bluefeet]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll generously assume he makes an average of $2 / SNG. Making 1 move that wipes away more than that is pretty horrible, I think.

[ QUOTE ]
Do I think folding is horrible? No, not horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]


For the record, I beat him into the pot here (for the reasons mentioned above).

Horrible: Arousing or tending to arouse horror; An intense, painful feeling of repugnance and fear

Calling a SB push PF w/72o here would be horrible. In this precise situation, failing to accept an act of aggression, not significantly damaging your means to get to the end, might be...weak, "weenie like", maybe even a little foolish. But "horrible" is a stretch /images/graemlins/wink.gif Besides, HU is fun!! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

What does everyone think about pushing preflop?

I think it would depend where you act relative to the short-stack. If the shortie is already all-in and the SB already raised to 475, then I'm OK with it. If you act before the shortie, then I don't push all-in, because I don't to get knocked out in 3rd when someone at the table has a microstack.

Since this hand history is messed up, we don't know if the shortie pushed right away or if he called/checked and then pushed once he saw 2 calls and thought he had a chance to triple up. And before you say "who they heck calls a 200 blind with 475 chips left" ... remember what stakes we're talking about here.

hmmmm, If your going to call his raise pf and then fold when the flop hits you, then maybe you should've folded pf to begin with (which I think is a bad idea).

I'm with Noah, I reraise allin pf.

Im all for agression, and I think calling postflop is good.

But this is a 10+1, and I know that its common sense among most players to fold because theres a small stack. But I think the SB would call you with a wide range of hands that he didnt want to push with but cannot lay down.

Ive seen people "trap" with lone aces in similar situations.

Just seems like a big risk at the 10s