QQ - do i have to call this down?

[rivered_again]

Villain sat down a few hands ago, so I had to assume that capping preflop meant a premium hand like AA-TT, AK-AQs, so as a default read that's what I went with. I had a few more hands on the BB, and he was quite fishy. His cold call screamed ace rag to me. Fish simply cannot get away from ace rag.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, BB folds.

Turn: (7.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB

This flop said to me that I was WAY behind. Any of the aforementioned hands that I put the 2 opponents on had me severely beaten and I was drawing to at most 6 outs (4 kings for a straight, or 2 queens (if they don't have AA, and nobody has a king)) to as little as 3 outs (3 non-club kings). The turn was a blank and it looked hopeless, so I folded because the pot wasn't that big.

Is there any reason to call down?

[milesdyson]

against AA you have 4 outs. againts AK you have 3 outs. against KK you have 2 outs.

looks good

[deception5]

This looks fine since you're pretty much behind everything in his range. Your Q outs are no good against AK/KK/AA and your K outs may result in a split (or even a loss against AcQc).

If he turns out to be a donk later you can always adjust your play against him.

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
against AA you have 4 outs. againts AK you have 3 outs. against KK you have 2 outs.

looks good

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice hand.

[Vex]

[ QUOTE ]

Is there any reason to call down?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're asking the wrong question.

You were the man in the middle on the flop and just cold-called. Here, you need to raise to turn up the heat and get some information.

The villain is simply bound to bet the flop because of the preflop action. His bet gives you no additional information. Then, you call, which IMO is worse than both folding and raising here. Why? Because you're giving the guy behind you better odds to come along, and you already know that you're not strong enough for that. If he calls behind, then you don't have any more information about what he might be holding. So, you're sitting there with what started out as a premium hand. By just flatcalling the flop bet, you don't have a clue about whether you're ahead or behind.

So, you put him on a strong hand because of the preflop action and figure you're up against a strong ace or a flopped set. That's fine. But, reads are only part of the thought process. Also, reads need to be refined as the hand progresses. Do you think he's strong? Test him with a raise. It's not a waste of money. Without that knowledge, it's easy to assume the worst and fold the turn. It's worth the cost of a sb to raise up the flop and have a better idea about where you stand.

Virtually any hand he would cap with has you dominated now. TT,JJ(hands I probably wouldn't cap with but you never know) just hit their set. AA hit a set. KK is still ahead and you only have 2 outs(the other 2 Ks). AK is way ahead. I do exactly the same. Call on the flop and hope to hit your gutshot with the K (preferably not even the K /images/graemlins/club.gif).

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Is there any reason to call down?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're asking the wrong question.

You were the man in the middle on the flop and just cold-called. Here, you need to raise to turn up the heat and get some information.

The villain is simply bound to bet the flop because of the preflop action. His bet gives you no additional information. Then, you call, which IMO is worse than both folding and raising here. Why? Because you're giving the guy behind you better odds to come along, and you already know that you're not strong enough for that. If he calls behind, then you don't have any more information about what he might be holding. So, you're sitting there with what started out as a premium hand. By just flatcalling the flop bet, you don't have a clue about whether you're ahead or behind.

So, you put him on a strong hand because of the preflop action and figure you're up against a strong ace or a flopped set. That's fine. But, reads are only part of the thought process. Also, reads need to be refined as the hand progresses. Do you think he's strong? Test him with a raise. It's not a waste of money. Without that knowledge, it's easy to assume the worst and fold the turn. It's worth the cost of a sb to raise up the flop and have a better idea about where you stand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Vex give me a capping range for an unknown player and look at how many of those hands we would be ahead of maybe 99 or 88 if you want to give him a huge capping range. Hero calls the flop because he has the odds to draw at his gut shot and folds the turn because he doesn't.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Is there any reason to call down?

[/ QUOTE ]
... The villain is simply bound to bet the flop because of the preflop action. His bet gives you no additional information. Then, you call, which IMO is worse than folding...

[/ QUOTE ]
wowzers

[Vex]

[ QUOTE ]

Hi Vex give me a capping range for an unknown player and look at how many of those hands we would be ahead of maybe 99 or 88 if you want to give him a huge capping range. Hero calls the flop because he has the odds to draw at his gut shot and folds the turn because he doesn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any hand that is worth raising with preflop. Once it has been three-bet, capping is a decision of how much strength you want to show and why you want to show it. When I three-bet preflop, I expect it to be capped as a matter of course, and I expect the capper to come out betting on the flop no matter what comes. When either of those two things don't happen, then is when I really start to rethink my line.

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Hi Vex give me a capping range for an unknown player and look at how many of those hands we would be ahead of maybe 99 or 88 if you want to give him a huge capping range. Hero calls the flop because he has the odds to draw at his gut shot and folds the turn because he doesn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any hand that is worth raising with preflop. Once it has been three-bet, capping is a decision of how much strength you want to show and why you want to show it. When I three-bet preflop, I expect it to be capped as a matter of course, and I expect the capper to come out betting on the flop no matter what comes. When either of those two things don't happen, then is when I really start to rethink my line.

[/ QUOTE ]

You didn't give me a range.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Hi Vex give me a capping range for an unknown player and look at how many of those hands we would be ahead of maybe 99 or 88 if you want to give him a huge capping range. Hero calls the flop because he has the odds to draw at his gut shot and folds the turn because he doesn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any hand that is worth raising with preflop. Once it has been three-bet, capping is a decision of how much strength you want to show and why you want to show it. When I three-bet preflop, I expect it to be capped as a matter of course, and I expect the capper to come out betting on the flop no matter what comes. When either of those two things don't happen, then is when I really start to rethink my line.

[/ QUOTE ]

He raised UTG and then capped. That is a sign of A LOT of strength. I don't think he's trying to "represent" a hand. You are WAY behind here almost every time.

Miles...

What do you think about raising the flop on this one?

I like it because it really lets you know where you are. If you get 3-bet you may want to throw it away there or even peel and then fold the turn to a bet. What it really does is puts the default agression in your hands, which callign the flop does not. If you get more aggression back you can be pretty sure that your beat.

Thoughts?

Margon

[ QUOTE ]
against AA you have 4 outs. againts AK you have 3 outs. against KK you have 2 outs.

looks good

[/ QUOTE ]

In addition, counting these outs as whole outs would be a mistake. The fold looks even better.

Can someone PokerStove this hand. I'd be pretty surprised if the the flop call wasn't -EV.

[milesdyson]

if we raise the flop and he just calls, we have to bet the turn and river and pray he folds KK. is this the plan?

and wtf is with saying we could consider folding to a flop 3-bet if we raise?

for me, his preflop cap has "defined his hand" enough already, to the point where i do not want to raise to "define" it more because i will have to call a reraise, and i may be stuck forced to call a turn bet.

I agree w/ Vex 100% here. I also expect a bet after the pot has been capped preflop. The bet on the flop really gives you no info. Raise on the flop and you'll have a better idea what this guy is about. It's only 1 small bet. If he's not ahead, he probably won't be able to resist just calling here and then you know you have a shot at the pot.

If he 3 bets you on the flop, he's almost guaranteed to have the monster you fear and you can check out now and sleep easy knowing you probably made the right lay down.

Also, this is a large pot at this point in my opinion, you played a strong hand preflop (which is the tight, correct play), so now that the pot is large, get aggressive.

[milesdyson]

this is where i accuse both of you of being trolls

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree w/ Vex 100% here. I also expect a bet after the pot has been capped preflop. The bet on the flop really gives you no info. Raise on the flop and you'll have a better idea what this guy is about. It's only 1 small bet. If he's not ahead, he probably won't be able to resist just calling here and then you know you have a shot at the pot.

If he 3 bets you on the flop, he's almost guaranteed to have the monster you fear and you can check out now and sleep easy knowing you probably made the right lay down.

Also, this is a large pot at this point in my opinion, you played a strong hand preflop (which is the tight, correct play), so now that the pot is large, get aggressive.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tell me what hands your ahead of.

[deception5]

Somewhat relevant - an article on Raising to find out where we're at (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=523282&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb =5&amp;o=&amp;vc=1)

I agree with Miles on this one. We already know where we're at (preflop has definied villian's hand to a very narrow range). We call because we have a gutshot - not because we might have the best hand.

[Vex]

[ QUOTE ]
Somewhat relevant - an article on Raising to find out where we're at (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=523282&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb =5&amp;o=&amp;vc=1)

I agree with Miles on this one. We already know where we're at (preflop has definied villian's hand to a very narrow range). We call because we have a gutshot - not because we might have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think a preflop four-bet can narrow a villain's hand range that much. I honestly don't think a cap means much more than an open-raise preflop.

By just calling, you risk being raised by the guy behind you, and I don't think the implied odds are there. If you hit your straight, your hand is too transparent to expect extra calls. If you hit your set, there's a good likelihood someone else made their straight. Even if you hit and are good and get called, the callers can redraw.

You're either way ahead or way behind here. If you know you're behind, you shouldn't call the flop. If you don't know (and I contend that here, the hero doesn't know), then you need to find out which and play accordingly. Raise the bb out of the pot. Raise up the pressure on the villain. Raise your knowledge of whether this is your pot or not.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
I honestly don't think a cap means much more than an open-raise preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
ROFL WHAT TABLE YOU AT FISH?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Somewhat relevant - an article on Raising to find out where we're at (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=523282&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb =5&amp;o=&amp;vc=1)

I agree with Miles on this one. We already know where we're at (preflop has definied villian's hand to a very narrow range). We call because we have a gutshot - not because we might have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think a preflop four-bet can narrow a villain's hand range that much. I honestly don't think a cap means much more than an open-raise preflop.

By just calling, you risk being raised by the guy behind you, and I don't think the implied odds are there. If you hit your straight, your hand is too transparent to expect extra calls. If you hit your set, there's a good likelihood someone else made their straight. Even if you hit and are good and get called, the callers can redraw.

You're either way ahead or way behind here. If you know you're behind, you shouldn't call the flop. If you don't know (and I contend that here, the hero doesn't know), then you need to find out which and play accordingly. Raise the bb out of the pot. Raise up the pressure on the villain. Raise your knowledge of whether this is your pot or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't mean this sarcastically at all, but please give examples of hands we are ahead of that would raise UTG, Cap, and then bet into that flop.

[Vagrant]

I think calling the flop is the best move. Raising the flop might get you a free card for an extra shot to hit the draw if the player was tricky and likes the call the flop raise- check raise the turn play.

However the board is way too coordinated given the action to get tricky in my opinion.

You cant call that turn. I was very liberate and put villain on AJ+,KQ,1010+ and you have 8.7% equity. I ran some more testing and basically you have 6.5%-9% depending on hand ranges. The picture changes drastically if you include 99-. But pretty much any face card doesnt matter.

[ QUOTE ]
You cant call that turn. I was very liberate and put villain on AJ+,KQ,1010+ and you have 8.7% equity. I ran some more testing and basically you have 6.5%-9% depending on hand ranges. The picture changes drastically if you include 99-. But pretty much any face card doesnt matter.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank god someone finally did this.

For those guys advocating a bet\raise - I was going to get abusive but Miles does it so much better.

Even with loose preflop capping standards, the flop CALL is slim and more than likely -EV, especially with someone still to act behind you.

[rivered_again]

Thanks for the replies. I hate to say it, but Vex is the only one that wouldn't have gotten absolutely PUNK'D on this hand. Villain showed this:

Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

I was going to give him credit for outplaying me and being a creative player, but soon after he capped the turn and river in a 3-way pot with 2 pair and lost to someone's obvious straight. Just another LAG. It's too bad I didn't have that knowledge before playing this hand, because I definitely would have raised and even capped the flop knowing he vastly overplays his hands.

I folded because my default read on low limit players is that they're average until proven otherwise. They've seen some WPT and know what the premium starting hands are. So if they cap preflop, it's a safe bet they have a premium hand. Is this really a bad assumption? I don't want to be results-oriented here. But since new players sit down all the time, this kind of situation does come up fairly often (not knowing how to interpret a new player's betting patterns).

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the replies. I hate to say it, but Vex is the only one that wouldn't have gotten absolutely PUNK'D on this hand. Villain showed this:

Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

This alone doesn't make him a maniac, but soon after he capped the turn and river in a 3-way pot with 2 pair and lost to someone's obvious straight. It's too bad I didn't have that knowledge before playing this hand, because I definitely would have raised and even capped the flop knowing he vastly overplays his hands.

I folded because my default read on low limit players is that they're average until proven otherwise. They've seen some WPT and know what the premium starting hands are. So if they cap preflop, it's a safe bet they have a premium hand. Is this really a bad assumption? I don't want to be results-oriented here. But since new players sit down all the time, this kind of situation does come up fairly often (not knowing how to interpret a new player's betting patterns).

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats why you hear "without a read i would call down" or "against an unknown i raise" or whatever alot on these forums. This hand is not an example of that. Thinking it is is results oriented.

[rivered_again]

Exactly. I don't mean to encourage results-oriented thinking. I still think this a fluke occurance of me actually being ahead in the hand. I showed villain's hand for closure.

Vex, I read your post and applied it to a KK hand that was capped preflop. An ace flopped and I check-raised "to put pressure on" and the result was that I got [different] villain to call down AK. I'm not so sure your approach is that applicable to low limits...

[milesdyson]

wow, why on earth would you check raise an A-high flop with KK? i guess this requires some thinking, but really, i encourage you to get that results-oriented brain working. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Gunther S.]

I get something different. I think drawing to a king or queen is +ev. This analysis is very limited (going further gets a lot more complicated and I can't be bothered right now, which could account for the discrepancy. Or I made a mistake:

Villan caps utg. If we respect this person, then we're behind to any of his likely hands:

AA (3) = 4 outs (4 kings)
KK (6) = 4 outs (2 kings, 2 queens)
QQ (1) = split
AKs (3) = 3 outs (3 kings)

(4 * 9 + 3 * 3) / 12 = 3.75 outs (92% of the time : 8% split to QQ)

The only way we win in this position is if a K or Q comes,
but you still won't know if you hit...

8% of the time, you will split:
* Splitting to QQ pays 3.125BB

One of the following happens the remaining 92% of the time:
* Hitting your out by the river, pays 8.75BB, 15.5%
* Seeing a K or Q but losing, costs 2.5BB, 8.5%
* No K or Q by the river, costs 1.5BB = 76%

EV after the flop:

8% * 3.125BB + 92% * (15.5% * 8.75BB - 8.5% * 2.5BB - 76% * 1.5BB) = .25BB

This analysis ignores redraws, which reduces your calling ev. It also ignores the possibility that the villan is a little loose, which would raise the calling ev. There is definitly room for refinement here.

p.s. I read Lori's rant on this kind of stuff. Apologies. Sometimes I can't stop myself.

EDIT: I just realized that I neglected to account for the 1 to act behind. Poker is so complicated.

[milesdyson]

our set outs make KK a straight. we have more outs against top set than we do TPTK or KK - weird eh?

[Gunther S.]

Oh yeah! So I overestimated. We only have like 3.25 outs then. Bummer. Well, at least we can rule out calling then.

[rivered_again]

[ QUOTE ]
wow, why on earth would you check raise an A-high flop with KK? i guess this requires some thinking, but really, i encourage you to get that results-oriented brain working. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know. I had just read Vex's post and figured I'd try his way. It didn't work. Or I mis-applied it.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wow, why on earth would you check raise an A-high flop with KK? i guess this requires some thinking, but really, i encourage you to get that results-oriented brain working. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know. I had just read Vex's post and figured I'd try his way. It didn't work. Or I mis-applied it.

[/ QUOTE ]
don't try his way. try to figure it out. what good can come of check raising an A-high flop in a capped preflop pot?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wow, why on earth would you check raise an A-high flop with KK? i guess this requires some thinking, but really, i encourage you to get that results-oriented brain working. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know. I had just read Vex's post and figured I'd try his way. It didn't work. Or I mis-applied it.

[/ QUOTE ]
don't try his way. try to figure it out. what good can come of check raising an A-high flop in a capped preflop pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you go WA/WB here? It's something I'm still working on.

[milesdyson]

well try to answer the question i asked. what good can come from checkraising an A-high flop with KK when the pot was capped preflop?

[ QUOTE ]
well try to answer the question i asked. what good can come from checkraising an A-high flop with KK when the pot was capped preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not much. You're either getting 3 bet by a strong Ace or getting a worse hand like QQ or JJ to fold (usually).

Ok....

I understand where your going, the discussion is worthwhile though, I learned something here today.

So, on the flop you have to assume that your behind, based on the read (this would be different if it was a maniac, but this is not the case here). Raising on the flop then does nothing for you, but may force you into calling the turn for odds, especially if you get 3-bet.

You have 3.5 outs, which is enough in this case to call the flop, but once this hand got to the turn it was a fold....get that.

The reason I was thinking about the raise was a little Lee Jones'ish basically saying, you MAY NOT be sure that your behind now, it could have been a continuation, but if you raise and are 3-bet, you KNOW, and thereby you can let it go then and there. The thinking being get out of the hand for 1 more small bet, rather than call the flop, and turn, ending up at 3 small bets get to the river.

Now I see the correct play here is to call the flop bet, and then fold the turn, costing one small bet on a 3.5 outer.

Margon &lt;-- not a troll, just really bad at poker, even though I have played 100,000 hands.

"I had to assume that capping preflop meant a premium hand like AA-TT"---&gt; thats a big negative, dont give these guys that much credit

"This flop said to me that I was WAY behind"---&gt; not really, use QQ to punish these fools

"pot wasn't that big"---&gt; at the limit your playing that is slightly above average.

For me unless I am for sure I am beat I put my foot on the gas and do not let up with a hand like QQ, especially heads up. DOnt be scared by overcards, you will be suprised more than you think. Also, do not give these fools that much credit, for all you know villain might have a pair of tens.