Extremely passive play with the nut flush [Archive]

View Full Version : Extremely passive play with the nut flush

Spicymoose

11-11-2005, 07:45 AM

I just moved over to the new Party, but I don't have any reads. So far this game seems a bit wild, but I am unsure exactly how much so.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG raises, 1 fold, CO 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero caps, UTG calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, CO 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (10.66 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, CO 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG calls.

River: (19.66 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG Bets, CO Raises, Hero calls, UTG calls (all in).

Final Pot: 19.66 BB

Digs

11-11-2005, 08:32 AM

I never hit anything but bet/raise in this hand

jph0424

11-11-2005, 08:38 AM

I cap this turn and bet/call the river. I'm definitely not convinced of a boat yet. What are you putting them on that would call a pf cap that has you beat? KK is the only hand that would and I am certainly going to put some more chips into the pot before I believe that.

Spicymoose

11-11-2005, 08:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I never hit anything but bet/raise in this hand

[/ QUOTE ]

You cap that flop?

NLSoldier

11-11-2005, 08:40 AM

Why the [censored] were you sitting with less than 12BB?

Spicymoose

11-11-2005, 08:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I cap this turn and bet/call the river. I'm definitely not convinced of a boat yet. What are you putting them on that would call a pf cap that has you beat? KK is the only hand that would and I am certainly going to put some more chips into the pot before I believe that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking of this, but I am not sure if it is correct or not. There are 3 combinations of KK that CO would play exactly like this. I have both the A and Q of diamonds, so what other hands can you see CO playing like this (when he 3-bets the turn)?

Spicymoose

11-11-2005, 08:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why the [censored] was UTG sitting with less than 12BB?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm guessing because he is a Party retard, but you would have to ask him.

jph0424

11-11-2005, 08:47 AM

AA for protection, if he is aggro enough AK for protection, and if he is loose enough preflop A8. Since we dont have a read, I am building this pot with my very strong hand.

admiralfluff

11-11-2005, 08:47 AM

I play it like this, and wish I had better reads so I could fold that turn. A sane CO will not 3 bet the turn here with AK. He can't have a good diamond. I expect to see KK a lot.

NLSoldier

11-11-2005, 08:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why the [censored] was UTG sitting with less than 12BB?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm guessing because he is a Party retard, but you would have to ask him.

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf. im an idiot. i dunno how i missed the word UTG between the words hero and all in. my bad.

NLSoldier

11-11-2005, 08:55 AM

BTW, i do more raising.

Spicymoose

11-11-2005, 09:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
AA for protection, if he is aggro enough AK for protection, and if he is loose enough preflop A8. Since we dont have a read, I am building this pot with my very strong hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 3 combos of KK that play exactly like this.

There are 3 combos of AA that play like this maybe 25% of the time.
There are 9 combos of AK that play like this maybe 25% of the time
There are 2 combos of A8s that play like this maybe 10% of the time.

That we have a weighted 3.2 combos of times we are ahead, and 3 times we are behind.

When we are behind, we are dead, and when we are ahead, he has 3 or 4 outs against us. Also I think we were generous with the amount of times he has a non KK hand. The layover from UTG provides some buffering, but I think sometimes we are behind to his KK.

I think it is close, and I am unsure if capping or calling the turn is correct.

jph0424

11-11-2005, 09:15 AM

I like how you analyzed this but without a read how do you know how aggressive he is post flop. Against a typical party LAG (which there is a pretty good chance of if the game is as wild as you say) I think he 3 bets AA and AK more than 25% of the time and would slowplay KK at least some of the time. I do think it is fairly close but I am still capping this turn and bet/calling river.