($22) Deuces ITM River Bluff Raise...do you likey?

Villian had been loose pre-flop the whole game (something close to 45% VPIP, but passive post flop).

Actually, I'm wondering how else you would play deuces in this situation. Pre-flop, and any of the other streets. I think pushing pre-flop or on the flop is better than my line here.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (3 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Hero (t1968)
SB (t3071)
BB (t2961)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
Hero raises to t400, SB calls t325, 1 fold.

Flop: (t950) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (t950) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: (t950) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
SB bets 350, Hero Raises All-In, SB takes every last second and his time bank and folds.

no

With thirteen BB left, I'd fold pre-flop unless the blinds are tight. Having raised, I'd fire 600 on the flop, and shut down if called.

Woo! 100 posts!

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With thirteen BB left, I'd fold pre-flop unless the blinds are tight. Having raised, I'd fire 600 on the flop, and shut down if called.

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Is folding a pair here standard when it's three handed and your effective M in (or very close to) the RED ZONE?

[tigerite]

Please. Stop already with the 'effective M' and 'RED ZONE' etc. You're misapplying the concepts in HOH and they're nonsense here.

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Please. Stop already with the 'effective M' and 'RED ZONE' etc. You're misapplying the concepts in HOH and they're nonsense here.

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Explain to me how folding a pair of deuces pre-flop when its three handed is standard. My 'effective M' is 2.6 and I am smack in the middle of the 'RED ZONE'. Since you were so polite as to point out that 'they're nonsense here', I would love to hear your explanation as to why folding 22 pre-flop is standard.

If you are referring to my OP, of course the actual play I made has nothing to do with it. If you had read it, you would see I asked for advice on how to play 22 in this situation. But thank you for your insight. You are usually very good with ICM calcs and showing wether a play is mathmatically EV. I was dissappointed to see your response.

Nope.

I raise less preflop and then check/fold the rest of the way.

[durron597]

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Nope.

I raise less preflop and then check/fold the rest of the way.

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If your plan is to check/fold when you don't hit a set then why play 22 at all? May as well be 32.

[durron597]

I bet the flop when he checks it to me.

[SonnyJay]

He never said you should've folded 22. He said that "effective M" and "red zone" don't matter. You play it, but your decision has little to do with your effective M. HOH is a book on multitable tournaments, not SNGs. Different strategies apply.

I like your t400 raise. Follow it up with a t500 bet on the flop though. You showed aggression preflop and a continuation bet would win you the pot fairly frequently. If it doesn't, check it down.

It's not that I particularly hate your river push, but I think the continuation bet is the much better play. Safer and probably more effective. You don't want a donk to hit their 8 and think they're good, and as a safe rule of thumb you don't want to see more cards with 22.

-SonnyJay

Meh.

I just see it as a blind steal with the added bonus of possibly hitting a set.

fold. sounds likes someone that is undisciplined "I haven't seen decent cards in like 20 hands". play the situation not the cards. when a player or players are playing loose, you tighten up your game, when they are playing tight, you loosen up your game. best advice I ever read.

[SonnyJay]

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Nope.

I raise less preflop and then check/fold the rest of the way.

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If your plan is to check/fold when you don't hit a set then why play 22 at all? May as well be 32.

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In addition, how much less than a t400 raise when the BB is t150 do you really want to make? It's true, you really shouldn't play it if this is your plan.

-SonnyJay

uhhh, whoops. Thought the blinds were 50/100. God knows why.

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Meh.

I just see it as a blind steal with the added bonus of possibly hitting a set.

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That's kind of what my thinking was when I raised originally. I thought they would fold 50% of the time. If the flop came with any paint I was check/folding, and if no paint I was pushing. After it was this particular player who checked it to the river, then made a small bet, I made this bluff. I thought I might actually still have the best hand as well.

I still think All-in Preflop would be standard though and I'd like someone to tell me why not.

[SonnyJay]

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If the flop came with any paint I was check/folding, and if no paint I was pushing.

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Ugh, I don't think that's a good strategy. Your continuation bet doesn't have to work that often for it to be profitable, and it certainly doesn't have to be a push. I think you can bet t500 or so and try to take it right there. Why go running if there's paint? Sure it's more likely to have hit him, but if it's J high (like this) I don't think it's much of a concern, plus if he doesn't hit it he's probably gone. This is definitely much better than giving him 2 more cards and then trying it.

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I still think All-in Preflop would be standard though and I'd like someone to tell me why not.

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Because you have more than 13xBB. That's overkill to pick up 1.5xBB.

-SonnyJay

[kevstreet]

I hate pocket 2s but I think I make a c-bet on the flop and fold to a re-raise.

As far as a pre-flop push, I think I may shove this if it was one blind level higher but probably not at this stage.

[KingDan]

Gotta CB the flop.

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Because you have more than 13xBB. That's overkill to pick up 1.5xBB.

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With the blinds eating away at you every 2 out of 3 hands, I think I want to take it down and even be happy with a coin flip. I'm surprised to see a couple people advocating folding.

This seems like a good time to see exactly what ICM is all about. I'm just so damn intimidated by it.

[SonnyJay]

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With the blinds eating away at you every 2 out of 3 hands, I think I want to take it down and even be happy with a coin flip.

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It's an issue of risk/reward. If you had 6BB it's definitely worth pushing and taking the coinflip if you get called. With 13BB+ it's not worth the risk of taking your (at best) 55% shot at doubling up. Your raise to t400 preflop will win it for you pretty often, and if not C-betting the flop will often do it. I don't like pushing nearly t2000 into a pot of only about t200.

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This seems like a good time to see exactly what ICM is all about.

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Yup. Thinking about decisions in terms of prize pool equity (of which ICM calculation is one estimate) is important in any tournament. Splashpot posted this link (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&amp;Board=&amp;Number=711461&amp;page=&amp; view=&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=) in a different thread, it's a good starting point.

-SonnyJay