JJ from the SB should I have tried a C/R?

MP1 is 30/9.5/1.75
Button is 22/0/0.93

PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (7 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, Button folds.

River: (7 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: 8 BB

I've run into both players before. Don't remember much about MP1. He bets out on the flop about 20-25% of the time. Button is a calling station. I bet out on the flop mainly because I was the pre-flop aggressor. My table image was fairly tight up to this point too. In retrospect, I'm wondering if I should have checked the flop and hoped MP1 bet out so I could raise. Thoughts?

[Redd]

Given your reads, you basically expect a checked flop to be bet 25% of the time. So if you try to c/r, you'll gain an extra 2SB 25% of the time and lose 2SB 75% of the time. EV[checkraise] = -1SB. This is a gross simplification, but this part of the calculation dominates so it gives us a clear picture.

In general, don't checkraise when you don't know who it's coming from. Also in general, one should very rarely checkraise with a strong flopped hand as the pfr (disclaimer: this is at microlimits, where deception isn't necessary) because it looks really fishy.
In this case, definitely don't checkraise in a small field with one v. passive player.

I wouldnt do a check raise here. Value bet your hand.

Thanks Redd. I was afraid I might have left something on the table.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks Redd. I was afraid I might have left something on the table.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/smile.gif Hand was well played btw.

[aargh57]

I think if your reads are anywhere near right you made the right play. Even if one of your opponents bet you may shoot yourself if they fold to a check/raise which they might do because you could represent an Ace. Let's just put some numbers behind each situation and see.

You say MP1 may bet 20-25% of the time, lets say button will bet 35% of the time (a little more since he's got position). So your opponents will bet about 60% of the time. The 25% of the time MP1 bets you will gain 2 extra bets assuming they don't fold. However, the 35% of the time button bets you can't count on MP1 coldcalling a flop raise 100% of the time so lets say 25%. So you gain 1.25 extra bets those times. The remaining 40% you lose 2 bets that you would've gained if you bet and they call. However, maybe you can't count on both calling one bet 100% let's say 75% since they seem loose. So you would lose 1.5 bets.


So
25% of the time +2 bets
35% of the time +1.25 bets
40% of the time -1.5 bets

(.25*2)+(35*1.25)+(.40*-1.5)=.3375

This makes the case for trying for a check/raise. However, I didn't factor in the possibility of your opponents folding for a check/raise which would lower this number or the possibility of button folding to a MP1 bet. I guess it looks pretty close either way.
Of course these numbers I just pulled out of my butt so I don't take too much stock in them. For instance, if button only bets 20% of the time it would swing it the other way.

(.25*2)+(.20*1.25)+(.55*-1.5)=-.075

Also, I did this more for the math exercise than anything so if I screwed the math up hopefully some kind soul will let me know.

[SoftcoreRevolt]

Just bet here. With one villain having normalish aggression numbers, you'll get an ace to raise and allow you to get even more money in close to as much as one will just bet out.

Yeah, I'd bet out since you're the one representing strength preflop. On that flop, your opponents will probably think you hit the A. If they have an A, they'll probably just pay you off.

Getting fancy w/ checking or check/raising seems to be -EV to me. I'd think you'd only get a lot of action from other strong hands better than TP (maybe AK or something at the worst). It'd be nice to be up a smaller set. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Getting your money in the pot simply seems smart to me.

[ajm36]

I think this is fine. If you C/R you will get an extra 0-2 SB's and make it much more likely both opponents will fold to a turn bet (you have to bet the turn otherwise they are likely to just check it through). Just keep betting, these clowns will call you down anyway. Given the turn action, it would seem that you probably did maximize the number of bets you could have gotten from this hand--so as it turned out, a C/R at BEST would have gotten you one more bet. At the worst, it would have gotten you one less bet--you split the difference.

[aargh57]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is fine. If you C/R you will get an extra 0-2 SB's and make it much more likely both opponents will fold to a turn bet (you have to bet the turn otherwise they are likely to just check it through). Just keep betting, these clowns will call you down anyway. Given the turn action, it would seem that you probably did maximize the number of bets you could have gotten from this hand--so as it turned out, a C/R at BEST would have gotten you one more bet. At the worst, it would have gotten you one less bet--you split the difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is results oriented. Not that betting out was wrong here but I don't think we should look at this as "it worked here so the play was right". If you would've check/raised and gained the extra bets it wouldn't have made it right either.