Value bet or induce a bluff?

[Evan]

Button has solid looking stats assuming they're from shorthanded play (24/18). MP is completely unknown and it's his first hand at the table.


Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. MP posts a blind of $20.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP (poster) calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, MP calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP checks, Button checks.

Turn: (5.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls, Button folds.

River: (7.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero asks the question in the title

[Stinkybeaver]

Induce bluff

Thats assuming an unknown who plays decent. I think he has a weak ace or FD, if he has an unlikely king we could split but are probably beat. He aint calling with a nine and aint folding an ace either.

[Lmn55d]

I think the sum of:

1. weaker kings (lots of uknowns play K2 etc.) that won't value bet
2. flush draws that paired the 9 or T (Q9, J9 etc.) and will call
3. flopped gutshot (which all paired) or pair of 9s that will call.
4. and aces that will value bet if checked to

is greater than:

1. The amount of flush draws that will bluff but would not call a value bet
2. The amount of weak aces or otherwise better hands (KQ) that checks through.

Thus I'd bet. I don't play 20/40, but I know many unknowns in 10/20 play a wide range of weaker hands that are paired here and would pay off, despite the A and K on board.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
1. weaker kings (lots of uknowns play K2 etc.) that won't value bet
2. flush draws that paired the 9 or T (Q9, J9 etc.) and will call
3. flopped gutshot (which all paired) or pair of 9s that will call.
4. and aces that will value bet if checked to

[/ QUOTE ]
You lose a bet against (4) no matter which option you pick, so I don't understand why they are getting weighed on the side of making a bet right.

[Lmn55d]

i meant that a bet is neutral against them. I guess I shouldn't have included it on side or another. I just thought it was important to point out that fearing an ace isn't an issue unless it is against someone who will check behind a weak ace.

[dave44]

I'd bet this- MP's range is pretty wide here and I'd expect enough calldowns from worse kings, tens, and even nines to outweigh the times he bluffs a busted draw.

[Evan]

I basically agree with lmn's post. I checked, but I'm pretty sure that was bad. Thanks guys.

[34TheTruth34]

I can see why you checked. During the heat of battle (especially playing multiple tables) I probably would have checked too. However, after further thought, betting seems to be clearly correct for all the reasons already given in this thread.

I think more interesting than the river is how you play the hand if the button bets the flop. thoughts?