Prop Bet

I have been offered this prop bet. Both players will be playing heads up NL Hold'em, starting with 3K in chips and blids starting at 50-100 and increasing every 10 min. My opponent will be playing with his cards face up, and be moving all-in every hand. If he wins he gets 4:1, if I win I get 1:1. Who has the advantage in this bet, assuming, I only decide to call him when I am at least a 70% favorite

So say he puts up $100 to your $400. You have to beat him 80% of the time TO BREAK EVEN. You can pick your hand, yes, but you have to find a hand that will win 81% of the time---ON THE FIRST HAND. Otherwise your odds get even worse. You are folding the blinds to him on every street, and can't even knock him out after hand one. You are a big dog laying 4-1, and there is a reason you were offered this bet.

What odds would make it an breakeven prop? maybe 3:1?

I didn't do the exact math, but 3-1 means you have to win 75% to break even. 2-1 means you have to win 67% of the time. Given that one of his cards is hidden, the only time you would be a huge fav (over 80%) to knock him out would be with a big pair over two other cards (KK) vs. (5)5 or (3)8, or sometthing like QQ vs Q3.

I wouldn't take 3-1, though someone who knows the exact math might make a case. Under 3-1 and you have a better shot as there are more hands that can be 2-1 and 3-1 favs.

remember--you are being offered this prop bet because the other guy knows he can make $$$ at it. Once you drop the odds in your favor he won't play you.

The bet wasthat both of his cards would be exposed. So in theroy I could wait until I was a 75% favorite or better

my bad----

yes, giving 3-1 you would find more hands that were 3-1 favs, but enough to win the whole thing 3 out of 4 times? I'm not sure. 3-1 might be doable since the # he gave you was 4-1.

Again, once you find the bet that makes you the fav, he won't play