AKo bb hand reading 20-40 4 handed.

[mike l.]

utg solid very good player raises, button weak but not very tight pretty bad player calls, sb folds, i reraise (im not really comfortable playing this hand w/ out raising it preflop), and both call.

the flop is 943 w/ one spade. i bet, utg bullet mucks, button calls.

the turn is 8s. i bet, button calls.

the river is Ts. i check and button bets. what's my play? what could the button have? what could the button not have?

[Jamie Collins]

Mike,
Based on your player description I think the range that you are good here: 6-1 to 20-1.

My guess? 9-1.

You and I are river callers. If I think it's close I always look them up, not only based on pot-odds and likely hand holdings but to improve my river play. I think of river play like putting in golf. Crucial to a successful game.

I don't think either folding or calling is a big mistake.
I don't think a river check-raise would be profitable with this player.

What could the button have? Well a lot of hands based on your description.
AK,AQ,AJ,A10, A9s, A8s, Axs, KQs,KQoff, QJs, J10s, 10-9s,

& Any pocket pair.

What could he not have? All the rest.

What does a bad player put you on when you've shown strength throughout the hand but check the river when it comes scary? A big pair probably. So I think it's even less likely he would attempt a bluff here.

I would recommend a fold. At the table I probably make a slightly -ev play and call.

Regards,
Jamie

[elysium]

hi mike
you have red AQs; button looks like J9; fold
you have TT; the button has J9s; call
the button cannot have a set

[mike l.]

"you have red AQs; button looks like J9; fold
you have TT; the button has J9s; call"

i guess you missed the part where i said i have AKo. look at the name of the subject. you were just supposed to help me try and figure out the buttons hand.

[Ed S.]

Maybe A-9s , A-4s or A,9o for the Button. Thats my guess. I suppose there is a remote chance he has a Made set already.

If he does its a Set of 4s or set of 3s, because I believe he would of raised with Pocket 9s pre-flop.


Ed S.

[elysium]

hi mike
missed the AK in subject slot. tired. ok, judging from your reply, the 9 on the flop is a spade. so he can't have J9s. it looks like a possible JQo. he can't have a flush or AA KK or QQ. any draw that improved to a flush draw would have so many outs that he'd raise the turn. but TT is possible.

[mike l.]

he had AQo. i called the river and my hand was good.

he chose not to reraise w/ it preflop, yet he took a stab w/ it on the river when a scare card of sorts fell against a player he saw as overaggressive. kind of weird.

[elysium]

hi mike
button's weak, but he sure played the critical point in this hand like a well seasoned pro. in fact, he played this entire hand like a pro.

[mike l.]

"in fact, he played this entire hand like a pro."

really? what about the part where he didnt reraise preflop, didnt raise the flop, and didnt raise the turn?

[elysium]

hi mike
he doesn't raise the pre-flop; that would be correct in view of the UTG raise-in.
he doesn't raise the flop; that's also crrect because he wants to raise the turn.
he doesn't raise the turn; that's correct now because a raise will no longer get the fold because of the flush draw.
he correctly waits and correctly bets the river.
he played every round perfectly.

[Lee Jones]

button weak but not very tight pretty bad player

Er, so whatever he will call two cold (plus a third on the installment plan) preflop.

You say he's weak, but not very tight. Which means when he bets he probably has a hand. And you don't have a hand. And a lot of hands that he might have (backdoor spades, medium pairs, JT) are now in front of you.

I dunno, there's, what, nine BB's in the pot. I don't think you win 10% of time here - toss it. Just be sure to play JJ the same way on occasion.

Regards, Lee

[Lee Jones]

Man, that's exactly what I thought when I read Mike's results. "Weak" my toenail. Hell of a bet, because that series of betting probably promises AK (or a similar busted hand) 10% of the time.

Cross off "weak" next to his name in your notebook.

Regards, Lee

[Pot-A]

Mike,

I think your opponent put you on exactly what you had - Perhaps he's noticed you're not comfortable calling with this hand. There was no reason for him to raise the flop or the turn, since you might call hoping to catch overcards and he didn't want to call a reraise if he was wrong.

I think in this situation you have to call. I run into a lot of people who'll bet busted draws on the river since they can muck easily to a raise, but don't bet hands they'll call with. If he flopped a set he would have raised before this, and there's no reason for either of you to have a flush. So he bets because that's the only way he can win.

[mike l.]

"I run into a lot of people who'll bet busted draws on the river since they can muck easily to a raise, but don't bet hands they'll call with.'

this is why i called. i called because this is not a player who would value bet the river. that falls into my understanding of him as a weak player. for instance some of us here would see this as a great opportunity to value bet something like a pair of 5s. so on the river he's not betting any pair on the board like a pair of 8s, 9s, or smaller. he may have a pair of Ts. he may also have a flush or less likely a straight. he does not have anything else i cant beat because he would not bet anything else but a pot saving bluff. so the hands i could put him on in the end were significantly less than they would be against other players. so his bet didnt scare me and i called and that is why i won that pot. im not saying i was certain my hand was good but i think because of the type of player he was and the hands i could put him on given the friendly board i had an easy call given the pot size.