Push or fold?

Villain here has been open alot of pots lately when it got folded to him. Hasn't seen a hand showdown from him yet in the later stages. And with my chipstack being as large as his, he won't call here unless he got a nice hand. Push or fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Hero (t2265)
BB (t2360)
UTG (t525)
MP (t3495)
CO (t2560)
Button (t2295)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t600</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ...

EDIT: Buyin 5+0,5 on Stars

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I'd push if he's been open raising enough for you to take notice.

[bjb23]

[ QUOTE ]
And with my chipstack being as large as his, he won't call here unless he got a nice hand. Push or fold?



[/ QUOTE ]

are you sure about that?? in a 5 dollar tourney you will most likely get called by tons of crap. easy fold here, id rather be opening the action at this stage of the game. depending in reads id prolly repush aq+ TT+ because he has so much already invested and im not counting too much on a fold.

your read that he has been opening a lot of pots isnt very important at this point, unless you have a read that he is also capable of making a laydown after a raise.

edit: just noticed villian is button and you are sb. this would expand my repush range for sure, but 66 is still too marginal, imo.

[SonnyJay]

With the assumptions
1. The BB won't call regardless of what happens
2. You'll be 52% to win if you get called (don't know if this is reasonable, if not it's easy to fix)

The ICM analysis says
Fold: ICM .1681
Push &amp; Fold Button: ICM .2165

Push &amp; Get Called by Button (Estimate 52% favorite):
Win: ICM .3056
Lose: ICM 0
.3056*.52= .1589

.1681 = x(.2165) + (1-x)(.1589)
.1681 - .1589 = .2165x - .1589x
.0092 = .0576x
.16

You need to fold him off the hand 16% of the time to break even. Obviously this is grounded in assumptions that may or may not be true, but from this perspective it seems like you can push.

This being said, I have never played Stars $5 tournaments, and there could be other dynamics that ICM doesn't cover. I think I push, but as confident in this as the ICM analysis would indicate. You may find situations where you have a better edge later.

-SonnyJay

*EDIT: I know that the win% is tied to the % of hands Button is calling with, I just used 52% as an estimate b/c I don't have SNGPT. Someone with it can probably do a more accurate analysis.

[Jbrochu]

[ QUOTE ]
With the assumptions
1. The BB won't call regardless of what happens
2. You'll be 52% to win if you get called (don't know if this is reasonable, if not it's easy to fix)


[/ QUOTE ]

I think 52% if called is overly optimistic as any caller at worst likely has two overcards and may well have an overpair.

[SonnyJay]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With the assumptions
1. The BB won't call regardless of what happens
2. You'll be 52% to win if you get called (don't know if this is reasonable, if not it's easy to fix)


[/ QUOTE ]

I think 52% if called is overly optimistic as any caller at worst likely has two overcards and may well have an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're about 55% against the likely overcards, and about 20% against the less likely overpair (and about 80% against the unlikely underpair). 52% may not be right but I don't think it's that far from it. Do you have a better estimate? From what you said in your post it would seem to support something close to 52%.

-SonnyJay

A problem with a "similar" theme is in Harrington's Vol 2.

First is the bettor for real, you don't think so so all the other issues shouldn't matter just push.. But

If you think the caller could be real then Harrington's analysis is releveant:

A. There are 48 hnads that generate higher pairs in which you are 4.5-1 under dog.

B. There are 96 possible AK - QJ hands that could bring a raise or an agressive raise (55-45 favorite)

C. Bluff 10% normal (you think higher) 60% favoite against random bluff.

If you take him for real the you have a 41% chance.

There is 225 in the po plus the 600 thats 825. You are the SB so it only costs you 525 to call.

you are getting ~3:2 (40%)pot odds against equal winning chances. So flip a coin...but

If you think the odds are more the 10% that you are being bluffed then its a call.

If you think the bluff is 50% then you are a 2:1 favorite.

[tigerite]

Pot odds aren't that relevant compared to ICM.. how many times have I said this lately?

[ QUOTE ]
If you think the bluff is 50% then you are a 2:1 favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea that's what I'm thinking here. Or maybe even 75% chance that he is bluffing. The only thing I was afraid of was an overpair and I would really like two overcards to call me here since I'd gladly take the coinflip to double up which would increase my chances to win it all. I may aswell go out 6 as 4th.

He showed A10 and turned a straight however. I don't think I should regret my move, should I?

[Jbrochu]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you have a better estimate?

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on what hands I think are likely to call, roughly 40% is a good guess.

[tigerite]

No, you shouldn't at all regret losing 15bb's with a pair of 6's to a known aggressive donk who is likely to call you with overcards too much of the time compared to him bluffing, and therefore losing all the equity you had (which was quite a lot) all because "you might as well go out 6th than 4th".

Please God save me, I can see what Unarmed means now.