Moneyball

[andyfox]

A great book. If you love baseball, don't miss it. It's about how the Oakland A's, under the leadership of Bill James disciple Billy Beane, run circles around other major league teams, despite a small budget, because they know what they're doing. A Beane disciple now runs the Toronto Blue Jays: lo and behold, they're right there with the Yankees and Red Sox this year. And with Bill James now working for the Sox, my guess is (and I'm a Yankee fan) that the Sox have their best opportunity to win the World Series since--well, since Mr. Ruth left town.

A very enjoyable read for baseball fans.

[adios]

The Red Sox win the the World Series? Nah not this year. Thanks for the heads up on the book, sounds interesting although I'm not as a baseball fan as a lot of you are but I am a fan.

[TAFKAn]

What I like most about it was the general lesson learned about the advantage of understanding information better than your opponent. The lessons learned from Moneyball can apply to just about every walk of life. A fascinating read.

[andyfox]

Good point. David would enjoy this book.

[Sooga]

I FINALLY read this book. I had been waiting for this to go on paperback but after several recommendations from my baseball-fan friends (and andyfox), I finally caved in and bought it.

And I must say, this has to be one of the most hilarious books I have ever read, period. If you are ANY sort of baseball fan, you need to read this book. Even if you've never heard of baseball, you would still find this an amazingly funny read. I've reread the chapter about his trades many times and it makes me laugh each time.

[ThaSaltCracka]

I haven't read the book but I have one question? If Billy Beane is such a GM genius, how come the A's make the playoff's every year only to lose in the first round. He is simply content with making the playoffs. He is quoted as saying "my job is to get to the playoffs, after that it is all luck".
Beane gets far to much credit.....

[andyfox]

Well, read the book. Beane knows more about how baseball teams win than anyone else in the game. In a sense, he's covering his ass because of Oakland's failures in the playoffs, but in a sense he's right: a short series is indeed something of a crap shoot.

[Gamblor]

The man has turned a nightmare of a franchise into an exciting young team that will be contending for pennants within 5 years.

Since the '94 strike (at least, the parts that I've lived here) and the coming of the Raptors, this city has largely ignored the Jays. Despite the gawdawful new unis they'll be sportin' this spring, there isn't a single person in this city who thinks they won't be fighting for the WC spot this Sept.

That is, IMO, entirely due to JP Ricciardi's wise spending and brilliant baseball mind.

[ThaSaltCracka]

the reason why they don't win in the playoffs is because the team can't win in short series. Beane looks at stats that other gms don't. his main thing is OB%, which in the long run will win you games, a lot, however when you are in the playoffs, you need people who can hit, knock in people on base. That is what the A's don't have. IMO to much credit goes to Beane, and not enough to their fine starting pitching, their pitching will continue to win games until they all leave to go play for a team who wants to win in the playoffs. Play for Teams that go in thinking they will win, with a front office thinking they will win. The A's are not that team, there GM conceeds it is a crapshoot in the playoffs, that is huge copout.

BTW,AL east will be very exciting this year.

[Gamblor]

Jays are contending, that's all that matters.

Question is, will Roy continue to dominate now that he's got a fat new 4 year $41 million deal?

Can Carlos repeat his career year?

And most importantly, can the Jays finally bring back BJ Birdy and get rid of that crappy duo of Ace and Diamond?

[Sooga]

See, the thing of it is, Delgado had a better year in 2000... he hit .344, had 57 doubles, 41 homers, and knocked in 137. His OPS was like 1.134. Absolutely ridiculous. In any other division but the AL East (or maybe West too) the Blue Jays would probably be one of the favorites to win. But I don't see them getting past the BoSox or the Yanks. But the Jays look really good so far. Vernon Wells is a bonafide stud, Phelps and Hudson are primed to break out, and hopefully Hinske gets back to form. They also need a couple nice arms to join Roy in the rotation... I doubt they'll make any waves in 2004, but unless the Sox and Yankees get young in a hurry, the Jays are gonna be up there in a couple years, for sure.

[andyfox]

Yes, I think part of it is a cop-out. But part of it is true. If Jeremy Giambi slides, instead of going in standing up on the great play Jeter made, the A's sweep the Yankees 3 straight in 2001. (By the same token, if Brsoisus just throws the ball to first base on the second bunt in the 9th inning of game 7 against Arizona, the Yankees win the World Series.) If the pop-up is 3 inches to the right, Alou catches it and the Cubs beat Florida.

By and large, luck is indeed the residue of design. But not always.

AL East will indeed be fun this year, but it will have to go a long way towards topping the Yankees/Red Sox play-off series last year and that epic 7th game.

[J_V]

You're right on the money Andy. The playoffs are a crapshoot and the best teams don't always win. Marlins, Marlins, Marlins.

[Ulysses]

I'm not much of a baseball fan. Just read this book and thought it was great. No Liar's Poker, but still a great read. I also didn't know that Michael Lewis was married to Tabitha Soren. She's cute.

[DougBrennan]

I first started reading Bill James' stuff back in the mid-80's and found it fascinating and enlightening. One year one of his pieces consisted of studying one team's minor league teams (I believe it was the Dodgers) and running some analysis of minor leagers' predicted performances in the majors, based on their minor league stats, minor league ballpark tendencies, and the like.

Well these predictions were reasonably accurate, about as accurate as predicting what type of season an established major leaguer is likely to have. Take, say, A-rod. Okay, he's a right hander going to Yankee Stadium, that's going to cut down his numbers some, let's call it .311 with 34 HR and 116 RBI. Anybody want to say that's not a likely line for A-rod this year? It won't be exact, but it gives an idea of the type of player you've got.

I've distracted myself. My point was, when I read James' article I thought, "you know, if I were a GM, I'd pay pretty good money for someone to reasonablely accurately predict how my young minor leaguers were going to do in the majors." I wondered for years why no one took advantage of this type of thinking, putting it down to a general unwillingness in baseball to embrace new paradigms, and also James personal abrasiveness. (I've heard him on talk shows 2 or 3 times, and he doesn't talk as well as he writes.)

It will be interesting to see how his stint in Boston works out, I think Beane has already proved that James' theories do have some relavence to real life situations.

Doug

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Okay, here goes my long, but eloquent, rant:

This is absolutely untrue. I've watched each and every one of the A's playoff series and they've simply been very unlucky in October. Yes, a short series, espcially a 5 game series, is very dependent on luck, but I wouldn't go as far as saying its a total crapshoot, but Beane does have a point. Many baseball people, i.e. Joe Morgan, chastise Beane and the A's organization for their lack of success in the postseason due to "not knowing how to win" and "not being able to play small ball" and then when they can't hit well, they're suddenly chastised for "not being able to knock in the runs" or "perform in the clutch." Many of the critics fail to realize that their very statements are contradictory.

Small ball, simply put, is a way to score LESS runs. You may argue that one run will make the difference in these short series, but its a proven fact that bunting will DECREASE the chances of you scoring even one run, unless the player at the plate is completely useless. One thing I will agree upon is that the A's need to learn how to run the bases better, i.e. Jermey Giambi's non slide with Jeter's "amazing play" was horrendous and the lack of speed on the team makes the team very dull to watch. Also, the series could have easily been over in game 3, when Mussina beat Zito 1-0 on a Posada HR. The difference between that game/series was a pitch half an inch too inside the plate, not because the A's can't bunt people over.

Then during the Twins series, the A's are accused of not being able to knock in runs. Hello?! They averaged more runs in that series than they did in the regular season! The real problem was Tim Hudson suddenly not pitching like Tim Hudson and losing two games.

Then last year against the Red Sox, there were very questionable, i.e. bad calls by the umpires and again terrible baserunning.

We're talking about a team that lost 4 series that went to the last game, not a team that got blown out of them. The A's could have easily won or lost any of those game 5's (and the series') and they just happened to lose them.

You guys are simply looking at short term results, which really don't tell you anything. Come on guys, you're all poker players. This is like saying you get delt AA and raising will win you money in the long run, but when it comes to "playoff time" you don't raise for whatever odd reason.

[ QUOTE ]
his main thing is OB%, which in the long run will win you games, a lot, however when you are in the playoffs, you need people who can hit, knock in people on base.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is contradictory, can you see why?

[ QUOTE ]
BTW,AL east will be very exciting this year.


[/ QUOTE ]
AL West will be more exciting, IMO. Red Sox are already running away with it! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Gamblor]

A Beane disciple now runs the Toronto Blue Jays: lo and behold, they're right there with the Yankees and Red Sox this year.

/images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Theo Epstein, the Red Sox GM, was a pupil of Beane and an avid reader of Bill James. Josh Towers and JP Riccardi are also friends of Beane and follow in the same line. And also recently, Mark DePosta, Billy Beane's right hand man all those years took the head GM job with the Dodgers. All these teams are successful/ in the process of getting better.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys are simply looking at short term results, which really don't tell you anything. Come on guys, you're all poker players. This is like saying you get delt AA and raising will win you money in the long run, but when it comes to "playoff time" you don't raise for whatever odd reason.


[/ QUOTE ]

The playoffs are short term samples. It doesn't matter what you do in the regualr season. it doesn't matter if over the length of an entire season his OBP is over .400, it matters what it is against that team in 5 or 7 games.
Do you play hands the same way you would against a full table when your heads up? No you don't and thats the point. Beanes style is much like the player who wins, but wins slowly. His teams lack the punch required to win short series. if you can't see the difference in a do or die 5 game series and an 162 season then this debate is pointless.
Again his claim that the playoffs are a crap shoot is a cop out. The two teams that won the last two world series all had the neccesary tools needed to make it. They may have peaked at the right time, but they still won it. I am sorry, but if Oaklands teams always peak near the end of the regular season and then lose in the first round, then they aren't put togther as well as Beanes gets credit for.

If they are such a crap shoot, why then did the Yankees and Atlanta so consistenly make it to the World Series or LCS?

[bugstud]

Atlanta and Yanks were because of pitching. Oakland's pitching has not pitched up to the hype in the playoffs. Not to sound like a prick, but the "small ball" rhetoric is pretty off base. Why does it matter that the A's don't bunt? I'm not like the Yankees bunted every inning, and you don't see anyone criticizing their style. If the A's caught any breaks or pitched better in one series, we wouldn't be having this dicussion.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

I already agreed that saying the playoffs are a crapshoot is a little exagerated, but you cannot deny that it is very luck orientated. It's not that the A's are poorly put together, its just that they didn't win those series'. Are there better lineups than what the A's have? Absolutely. Is it because Beane couldn't give the A's a better lineup? Yes and no. Some of the players the A's have had suck. (Their outfield the past couple years have been horrible.) But with the A's limited finances, could the A's have really done THAT much better with their lineup? Probably not. And its not like Beane hasn't tried to make his team better for the post season. He's notorious for making the trades that'll help them "down the stretch." Trading for Dye (before he started sucking, but luckily he's healthy and good this year) getting Damon for his speed and defense, adding Durham for his speed/production, trading for Foulke, all moves which helped the team out.

[ QUOTE ]
If they are such a crap shoot, why then did the Yankees and Atlanta so consistenly make it to the World Series or LCS?

[/ QUOTE ]

The real problem is that the A's don't have an extra hundred million to spend on teams like the Yankees do. The Yankees can afford the likes of Jeter, Giambi, Sheffield, Brown and A-Rod and STILL have money left over to give ridiculous contracts like the one given to Drew Henson and Kenny Lofton this year. The A's simply do not have that luxury. How can the A's do better in the post-season? Easy, sign an All-Star at every position and see if they don't improve.

BTW, the Braves have "only" won one World Series during their run. How come they're not critisized for "not knowing how to win?"

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
Why does it matter that the A's don't bunt? I'm not like the Yankees bunted every inning, and you don't see anyone criticizing their style.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tell that to Joe Morgan, who's goal in life is to put down the A's at every oppurtunity.

[ThaSaltCracka]

I am not saying that the A's team that made the playoffs were weak teams, they were very good teams, but they were not good short term winning teams, and thats what you have to be to win in the playoffs You have to have clutch hitting and good start pitching. You do not have luxury to grind out wins, you have to win quickly, and unfortunately the A's have not had teams like that. Look at the A's team of 89, and compare that to the teams of 2000-2003.

[ QUOTE ]
The real problem is that the A's don't have an extra hundred million to spend on teams like the Yankees do. The Yankees can afford the likes of Jeter, Giambi, Sheffield, Brown and A-Rod and STILL have money left over to give ridiculous contracts like the one given to Drew Henson and Kenny Lofton this year. The A's simply do not have that luxury

[/ QUOTE ]
Anaheim didn't have that luxuy, nor did Florida. When you make the playoffs, payrolls are irrelavant.

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, the Braves have "only" won one World Series during their run. How come they're not critisized for "not knowing how to win?"

[/ QUOTE ]
Because they made the world series, let me know the next time the A's get past the first round.

[andyfox]

I've always felt that luck was indeed a pretty big factor in short series. We all know the examples.

But another factor that hasn't been touched upon is managerial skill. Check out Casey Stengle's platooning and pitching choices during his five year run 1949-1953; or consider some of Torre's moves (bringing in David Cone with two out in the bottom of the 5th to pitch to just one batter, Mike Piazza; bringing in Rivera to stay within one run on the road in the 9th inning in game one against the Mets). You have to manage differently in a short series and some managers don't get it. Too many of them, for example, stay too long with their starting pitchers. (Grady last year in game 7 with Pedro is of course the most famous example, but Bobby Cox did it with Glavine one year against the Yankees, blowing a game they should have won; Buck Showalter blew the playoff series against the Mariners in 1995 when he stayed far too long with Cone in that remarkable game five won by Edgar in extra innings.)

The other night at the Dodger/Giant game, Jim Tracy intentionally walked Barry Bonds with a man on second an two outs in the first inning. Of course the Giants go on to score three runs and the final score is Giants 5 Dodgers 3. Nobody will remember this April game, but you do stupid things in October and you end up watching the World Series on TV.

[bugstud]

Excellent point andy, Macha and Howe may not the brightest guys especially with the bullpen. Macha still has Bradford face lefties and Mecir face righties when both are excellent specialists, but get hammered by the other guys.

Oakland is always the best team for your dollar, I wish I was a billionaire that could buy them and give Beane some cash to make a monster. This coming from a Cubs fan.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody will remember this April game, but you do stupid things in October and you end up watching the World Series on TV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, does anybody remember Buck Showalter intentionally walking Barry Bonds with the bases loaded in the 9th inning of that one game?

BTW, your quote isn't entirely true. Bob Brently I felt managed horribly a couple years ago, but the Diamondbacks still won. Little managed horribly in the NLCS and they lost. It's not always the manager.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
You have to have clutch hitting and good start pitching.

[/ QUOTE ]

The A's lost because Hudson Mulder and Zito aren't good pitchers? If they shut out the opposition, they're great, but when they lose, its becaue they're not good? That's just silly.

Oh yea, and "clutch hitters" do not exist.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
The A's lost because Hudson Mulder and Zito aren't good pitchers? If they shut out the opposition, they're great, but when they lose, its becaue they're not good? That's just silly.

Oh yea, and "clutch hitters" do not exist.

[/ QUOTE ]
Mulder and Zito are excellent players, thats not the a's problem.

I am sorry, but clutch hitters do exist. There are many examples of clutch hitting by specific players, why don't you go look for them.

BTW, I understand its hard to hear criticism about your team, but you simply aren't seeing the big picture. The a's have been good for the past couple seasons, but not that good. The 2001 team probably would have won the W.S. if they had gotten past the yanks, but unfortunately for you, the yankees clutch playoff play won them the series, something that the Oakland team lacked and has continued to lack for years afterwards.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
Ah, does anybody remember Buck Showalter intentionally walking Barry Bonds with the bases loaded in the 9th inning of that one game?

[/ QUOTE ]
Huh?

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, your quote isn't entirely true. Bob Brently I felt managed horribly a couple years ago, but the Diamondbacks still won.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree, I felt the diamondbacks didn't deserve to win, just because of how stupidly Brenly managed.

[B Dids]

Pulling up an old thread- but "clutch hitters" don't exist.

James and his ilk have done study after study and there simply aren't any hitters who hit any better in clutch situations relative to their usual averages with any consistant statistical significance.

[Your Mom]

Jor Morgan is a douchebag. His other goal in life is to put Ryne Sandberg down so he can still be the greatest living second baseman. Pathetic.

[jayadd]

i read moneyball and it was a great book. Another interesting and enjoyable read about baseball is 26th man. A story about the life in the minor leagues.