Semi bluff on a scare card

[Spicymoose]

Villain is 24/14/2 after a substantial amount of hands. Does anyone raise this flop?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 7.70 BB

[JDalla]

Probably not.

[jba]

I fold this preflop unless I think UTG is some kind of weakie.

and the way you played it I give up on the turn, I don't think this raise is profitable, too many decent aces that will all you down.

[waffle]

fold turn?

[Roy6]

Hero would like to fold out underpairs IMO.
Wouldn't any decent ace checkraise flop here?

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero would like to fold out underpairs IMO.
Wouldn't any decent ace checkraise flop here?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is my thought, especially since he is a standard TAG. I think often 77-JJ try to lead into the 3-better in hopes that they don't have the ace and fold. KK also plays like this. All of these hands almost surely fold to my turn raise. Also somewhat often Ax folds (if he had indeed led the flop, which is rare IMO).

[Roy6]

on a sidenote against an agressive player I'd seriously consider checking KK on the turn. Kind of WA/WB.

Fire your cards into the muck pre-flop and realize that you're an underdog against a 14%PFR's UTG range. Then stop spewing chips trying to win a small pot. You need about a 40% success rate for this bluff to show profit.

[tansoku]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero would like to fold out underpairs IMO.
Wouldn't any decent ace checkraise flop here?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is my thought, especially since he is a standard TAG. I think often 77-JJ try to lead into the 3-better in hopes that they don't have the ace and fold. KK also plays like this. All of these hands almost surely fold to my turn raise. Also somewhat often Ax folds (if he had indeed led the flop, which is rare IMO).

[/ QUOTE ]
Taking a stab at hand ranges.

14% pfr is any broadway suited, A7s+, ATo+, pairs down to 77, maybe a bit lower.

No Ax hand is folding, no Qx hand is folding.
TAG caps pflop with JJ+.
So if you eliminate Ax, Qx, you are left with about 25% of his range.
You’re getting 2.85:1 on a fold and you need 3:1. Probably close enough given hand range errors and that an Ax might fold sometimes..

Against his likely fold range:
Board: 2d Ah Qd Qs
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 59.8193 % 47.26% 12.56% { TT-77, KJs-KTs, JTs, KJo }
Hand 2: 40.1807 % 27.62% 12.56% { KhJh }

So it looks like you are behind to the range of hands he folds. So getting him to fold is great.

Against his full range:
Board: 2d Ah Qd Qs
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 79.1601 % 74.90% 04.26% { 55+, A7s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+ }
Hand 2: 20.8399 % 16.58% 04.26% { KhJh }

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]

14% pfr is any broadway suited, A7s+, ATo+, pairs down to 77, maybe a bit lower.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure this guy takes position into account and isn't raising 14% of his hands UTG.

[setjes]

My coach told me I should fold KJs on the button against an UTG raise, so this should be a pretty easy fold against a 14% PFRer

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
My coach told me I should fold KJs on the button against an UTG raise, so this should be a pretty easy fold against a 14% PFRer

[/ QUOTE ]

The top 14% of hands are 77+, ATo+, KJo+, QJo+, JTs, QTs+, K9s+, A8s+ which is coincidentally the exact same range of hands I am raising UTG. This range vs KJs gives an equity of 43% to 57%. If one blind calls the 3-bet with 88+, ATs+, KTs+, AJo+ our equity is now 25%. You are right I should fold this. I always thought KJs was strong vs a PFR, but now I see I am wrong.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My coach told me I should fold KJs on the button against an UTG raise, so this should be a pretty easy fold against a 14% PFRer

[/ QUOTE ]

The top 14% of hands are 77+, ATo+, KJo+, QJo+, JTs, QTs+, K9s+, A8s+ which is coincidentally the exact same range of hands I am raising UTG. This range vs KJs gives an equity of 43% to 57%. If one blind calls the 3-bet with 88+, ATs+, KTs+, AJo+ our equity is now 25%. You are right I should fold this. I always thought KJs was strong vs a PFR, but now I see I am wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

what is with all the equity talk?


1- this player raises 14% of his hands total and is tight and aggressive. He is almost surely raising less hands in the worst position.

2- against a 10% range you are looking at more like 88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo. Just looking at the equity doesn't really paint the whole picture here because you are dominated by JJ+ (18), AK (12), KQ (12), and AJ (12) and you only dominate KTs (3) and QJs (3). the reverse implied odds here are quite poor.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My coach told me I should fold KJs on the button against an UTG raise, so this should be a pretty easy fold against a 14% PFRer

[/ QUOTE ]

The top 14% of hands are 77+, ATo+, KJo+, QJo+, JTs, QTs+, K9s+, A8s+ which is coincidentally the exact same range of hands I am raising UTG. This range vs KJs gives an equity of 43% to 57%. If one blind calls the 3-bet with 88+, ATs+, KTs+, AJo+ our equity is now 25%. You are right I should fold this. I always thought KJs was strong vs a PFR, but now I see I am wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

what is with all the equity talk?


1- this player raises 14% of his hands total and is tight and aggressive. He is almost surely raising less hands in the worst position.

2- against a 10% range you are looking at more like 88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo. Just looking at the equity doesn't really paint the whole picture here because you are dominated by JJ+ (18), AK (12), KQ (12), and AJ (12) and you only dominate KTs (3) and QJs (3). the reverse implied odds here are quite poor.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um... I was agreeing that I was wrong initially, post illustrated that even if he was raising with the top 14% of hands I would behind. The fact that he is raising with less then 14% makes me even more behind.

[@bsolute_luck]

preflop is fine. folding in a 6-max hand here is crap. investing an extra sb preflop is no problem with this hand given we could very well have 6 clean outs plus straight and flush draws. see the flop. play poker.

turn: wouldn't make a habit of it, but i really don't see it as a problem as long as you fold to a 3-bet. any premium hand that doesn't have an A or Q will have serious difficulties calling here, but i'm surprised if he had KK, he would even bet this turn.