50/100 NL hand vs Far

[KaneKungFu123]

Ive never played him before but I know hes a high stakes Limit Player.

So far hes been playing very passive and ABC. He has made a few loose calls, and I feel that he is a loose caller. I think he is weak at pot control.

I think he has about $11,000 and I have him covered. I am not completely sure about this.
A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif in SB

I Min-Raise $200, he calls.

Flop

9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Check, I bet pot. He calls.

Turn

3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Check, I bet $1200, He raises $4800, I push.

Thoughts and Results to follow, but Ill add that I am fairly confident that he is raising two-pair/set on flop.

[Go_Blue88]

I feel like you don't have much fold equity. This play only seems good if he has TPTK. Based on the way you described him it seems that he'll call with anything else in his hand range and he's not pure bluffing.

[bogey]

The action makes no sense. How are you SB and getting checked to?

[emil3000]

SB is button in UB HU games.

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
The action makes no sense. How are you SB and getting checked to?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah what position are you and the villain in?

[slickpoppa]

okay, didnt realize this was a heads up hand

[spoohunter]

Did you consider checking the turn here? I would always do that because a 4 and an ace are pretty disguised, and he might try to bet the hearts (or have them).

[emil3000]

I don't know if it is, but I assume so.

[Denutz]

I think I have this right -

pot size preflop - 400, flop - 1200, turn - 2400 after your bet, 7200 after his raise.

You don't mention his stack, except for that you have him covered - after his raise he's put in 5400 so when you push for 9k more he has to call another ~5400 to see the river. So at that point he's getting almost 3:1 and you're most likely drawing to a 5:1 out, based on what you said about two pair or set. I think your fold equity stinks, but I don't play this high so maybe I'm off base.

If you're confident of your read, I don't like the play. Like another poster said, you'll push him off top pair, but otherwise don't see this working. But I guess that depends on your definition of working - I'm assuming you wanted him to fold

[captZEEbo1]

One problem with this push is he can have a pair + diamond draw now and be priced into calling.

[KaneKungFu123]

[ QUOTE ]
One problem with this push is he can have a pair + diamond draw now and be priced into calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think he has the right price to call with a pair/flush draw?

[KaneKungFu123]

Tell me if my Math is Wrong:

Lets assume that I will win 22% of the time on the river when he calls.

22(22,000) = 484000
78(9,200) = -717600

484000 - 717600 = -233600

Which means that I will lose -$2,336 everytime he calls.

x7200 + y(-2336) = EV

Let x=1, Let EV=1

7200/2336 = 3.08

Which means if he folds ~25% of the time or more then my play is +EV.

any mistakes?

[fuego527]

[ QUOTE ]
any mistakes?

[/ QUOTE ]
nope

I think your math is wrong Kane.

let
x = % time he folds.
so (1-x) = times he calls
7200 in pot
9200 left in your stack
Assuming 22% equity when called

Then your push is EV neutral when

7200x + (1-x){(.22)(22000) - 9200} = 0

Solving for x you need a fold roughly 38% of time here

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
One problem with this push is he can have a pair + diamond draw now and be priced into calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think he has the right price to call with a pair/flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, but its close enough that most players arent folding.

[Lady Dont Tekno]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
One problem with this push is he can have a pair + diamond draw now and be priced into calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think he has the right price to call with a pair/flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, but its close enough that most players arent folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

definitely agreeing w/ fsuplayer here. i dont see most players folding. so i guess if opponent is most players i dont like it.

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
One problem with this push is he can have a pair + diamond draw now and be priced into calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think he has the right price to call with a pair/flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

this is far out of my expertise, but anyway...

he gets almost 3:1 on his call.
if he has a diamond draw+pair, he has 7 to 14 outs if behind, lets say 10(?) on average. if he is ahead against a semi bluff, he usualy has 29 or 30 good cards in the deck (32 or 33 if the rank of one card matches yours). that means there must be only a chance of about 10% that you are semi bluffing to make the call correct. that means he should definitely call with a pair + diamond draw imo.

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
One problem with this push is he can have a pair + diamond draw now and be priced into calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think he has the right price to call with a pair/flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, but its close enough that most players arent folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

don't you think those 'most players' are right to consider, that hero might be bluffing (with a probability of at very least 10%)?

[greg nice]

[ QUOTE ]


no, but its close enough that most players arent folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

coupled with the fact that your read is that of a LOOSE CALLER.

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your math is wrong Kane.

let
x = % time he folds.
so (1-x) = times he calls
7200 in pot
9200 left in your stack
Assuming 22% equity when called

Then your push is EV neutral when

7200x + (1-x){(.22)(22000) - 9200} = 0

Solving for x you need a fold roughly 38% of time here

[/ QUOTE ]

*edit* sorry, my bad

after thinking it through, i agree completely.

[The Gift Of Gab]

The truth is that nobody ever checkraises with a draw and folds it on the same street. Never.

[ggbman]

Kane, i think your read that he is a loose caller and doesn't exercise good pot control go against betting this turn here, as he won't fold as often as you like. When he raises, you are put to a tough decision because it costs you your whole to stack to semi-bluff and you will be called a lot. I would rather see a turn check, and if you hit on the river you will have a shot at getting a decent amount of money in.

[AZK]

[ QUOTE ]
The truth is that nobody ever checkraises with a draw and folds it on the same street. Never.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ding ding.

I don't really see how this is even being debated being that in the first line of OP:

[ QUOTE ]
He has made a few loose calls, and I feel that he is a loose caller.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF? So why are you even 3betting here?

[flawless_victory]

hes a limit plyr.
if he plays NL like most limit plyrs, you just played right inti his hands here.
check the turn the first time and dont compound the mistake by reraising.
he about to call you w/ 89.
ugh.

[fuego527]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your math is wrong Kane.

let
x = % time he folds.
so (1-x) = times he calls
7200 in pot
9200 left in your stack
Assuming 22% equity when called

Then your push is EV neutral when

7200x + (1-x){(.22)(22000) - 9200} = 0

Solving for x you need a fold roughly 38% of time here

[/ QUOTE ]

oh right, kane's math acted like he was winning the money he pushed in with, and since that push is the action in question, it doesn't count

[KaneKungFu123]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
One problem with this push is he can have a pair + diamond draw now and be priced into calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think he has the right price to call with a pair/flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

this is far out of my expertise, but anyway...

he gets almost 3:1 on his call.
if he has a diamond draw+pair, he has 7 to 14 outs if behind, lets say 10(?) on average. if he is ahead against a semi bluff, he usualy has 29 or 30 good cards in the deck (32 or 33 if the rank of one card matches yours). that means there must be only a chance of about 10% that you are semi bluffing to make the call correct. that means he should definitely call with a pair + diamond draw imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

can you show the math please?

I'm a low stakes tourny player, so please tell me to shut up if I'm being dumb.

Why not check behind on turn? You said he's loose passive, so your FE's pretty low. Granted, you could lose the pot if he's on a draw and either hits or bets the river (I assume you can't call UI on the river, maybe I'm wrong on this), but when he doesn't bet and you're UI, you can check behind and win the pot a fair amount of the time. And, of course, you've got a strong draw and many of the cards that complete your draw may induce a bluff or a sheriffing call out of him on the river.

Given that you didn't check, I don't see what you expect to accomplish by this push. He's getting great odds, the board is draw heavy (so it's pretty easy to put you on a semibluff).

What range did you put him on and which hands is he folding?

[KaneKungFu123]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your math is wrong Kane.

let
x = % time he folds.
so (1-x) = times he calls
7200 in pot
9200 left in your stack
Assuming 22% equity when called

Then your push is EV neutral when

7200x + (1-x){(.22)(22000) - 9200} = 0

Solving for x you need a fold roughly 38% of time here

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. Something felt wrong there.

My initial guess when this hand happened was that I needed him to fold about 30%. At 38%, I dont like my play anymore.

[KaneKungFu123]

Results:

He had Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and called.

[KaneKungFu123]

I never considered he backdoored a flush draw because his raise doesnt leave enough money behind in his stack for me to be afriad of the river, basically he is making it push or fold for me which doesnt make much sense with a draw.

[Ben5505]

What card did the lovely river bring?

[KaneKungFu123]

[ QUOTE ]
What card did the lovely river bring?

[/ QUOTE ]

does it matter?























































A /images/graemlins/spade.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/laugh.gif /images/graemlins/wink.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/cool.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[AZK]

when I start playing those games, I hope I run as good as you.

[lapoker17]

Jesus, you're sick.

[yvesaint]

just how good can one man run

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]

can you show the math please?

[/ QUOTE ]

sure.

pot odds are 5600:16400 = 2.93
that translates to a necessary winning chance of 25.45%

if we assume 10 outs (and 44 unseen cards) if he is behind, he wins 10/44 = 22,72%.
if we assume 31 'outs' if he is ahead, he wins 31/44 = 70.45%.

if p is the chance that you are bluffing, his winning chance is
p * 70.45 + (1-p) * 22.72
this term must be greater than 25,45

therefore the break even point is
p * 70.45 + (1-p) * 22.72 = 25,45
<==> p * 47.72 = 2.72
<==> p = 0.0571 = 5.71%

the break even point obviously depends on how many outs villain has on average (especially when he is behind) but with the variables i have calculated, this is a clear call imo.

*edit* the slightly different value compared to my first post is is due to a different number of outs that i have assumed if he is ahead (in this calculation it is a little bit higher) and more exact calculation

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
The truth is that nobody ever checkraises with a draw and folds it on the same street. Never.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea... hu kane id check the turn, call some rivers with just 4s and raise/put in nice value bet if i do hit.

that would be standard tho, no?

also - and I have a feeling you wont answer this - why minraise this hand pf? very interesting to me.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
I never considered he backdoored a flush draw because his raise doesnt leave enough money behind in his stack for me to be afriad of the river, basically he is making it push or fold for me which doesnt make much sense with a draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats why he plays limit!

[KaneKungFu123]

[ QUOTE ]

also - and I have a feeling you wont answer this - why minraise this hand pf? very interesting to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

just too be more random. let him call here with J7s.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

also - and I have a feeling you wont answer this - why minraise this hand pf? very interesting to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

just too be more random. let him call here with J7s.

[/ QUOTE ]

ahh ok. not as complicated as ithought it would be /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Ulysses]

Yesterday I nailed flop of Ts 8s As w/ Js 9s. Lost to Ks Qs.

I then turned second-nut flush vs. durrrrrrr's nut flush.

The day before I ran two flopped nut flushes into sets that filled up on the river.

HOW THE F DO I RUN LIKE YOU KANE?

[KaneKungFu123]

[ QUOTE ]
Yesterday I nailed flop of Ts 8s As w/ Js 9s. Lost to Ks Qs.

I then turned second-nut flush vs. durrrrrrr's nut flush.

The day before I ran two flopped nut flushes into sets that filled up on the river.

HOW THE F DO I RUN LIKE YOU KANE?

[/ QUOTE ]

ive ran well no doubt, but you have to give some of the credit to my opponents.

[KaneKungFu123]

So what do you guys think abut Far's play here?

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yesterday I nailed flop of Ts 8s As w/ Js 9s. Lost to Ks Qs.

I then turned second-nut flush vs. durrrrrrr's nut flush.

The day before I ran two flopped nut flushes into sets that filled up on the river.

HOW THE F DO I RUN LIKE YOU KANE?

[/ QUOTE ]

ive ran well no doubt, but you have to give some of the credit to my opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

No question. And sticking it all in yourself w/ 5-high and showing them definitely helps your cause.

[Isles]

nm