Number of hands required to play

[tolvan]

Hi!

How many hands do I have to play to know a good estimate of my profit/hour played?

[Pylos]

Too many.

In all seriousness, you need a HUGE sample size to judge how you will do in the 'long run'. Many prominant posters here on 2+2 will tell you it's in the 300,000++ range.

After about 50,000 hands you will generally know about what you can expect, however.

[tolvan]

If I just want to know if I will go better than even in the long run, will it be less hands than 50 000?

[Pylos]

[ QUOTE ]
If I just want to know if I will go better than even in the long run, will it be less hands than 50 000?

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt it. Keep playing.

[stigmata]

With 50k hands you can might be able to say you are better than break even. Plug your vital statistics into this site. (http://www.svenskpoker.com/math.php?hands=50000&bb100=1.5&std100=17&ci=95&btn Calc=calculate)

[BreakfastBurrito]

Someone broke down the confidence intervals in one very good post a while back. Basically, the bigger winner you are, the more certain you can be that you're a winner over a fewer number of hands. If you're a 4BB/100 winner over 10,000 hands, there's a >95% that you're beating the game. Not that you're a 4BB/100 winner, but a >0BB/100 winner. 300,000 or so hands is required if you want to be fairly close (maybe <.2BB/100) to your actual win rate.

I remember when I first got poker tracker... I was on a super-crazy hot streak the first 5,000 hands, was winning absurd numbers like 6BB/100 and PROFITABLE from the blinds.

I was like... Jesus Christ... I'm buyin a new car this year and retiring next year. But like all averages... I'm now at 40,000 hands and have averaged out to be about the normal winning player 2.4BB/100 and still happy.

Don't let short term results scew your perception.