KQs runs into super TAG

[nomadtla]

Villan is 16/11/6
a bit over agro but hasn't shown anything out of line either, seems to be a tag running hot.
Do you 3-bet that flop, do you even want to go to showdown here? If so how do you want to get there?
Coments on all streets welcome

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP2 3-bets, 1 fold, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (15.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, MP2 raises, CO calls, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero ?

[tyler_cracker]

grunch

3-betting this flop doesn't do anything for you. CO is apparently never folding (3 cold preflop followed by 2 cold on the flop already), and Villain will 4-bet with both hands you beat (AQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif/AJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif/QQ/JJ) and hands you don't (AA/KK/AK/KQ).

So i would just call now and re-evaluate the turn. I donk most turns to prevent giving a free card (especially with CO hanging around), then call down. Villain might raise with QQ/JJ trying to knock out/charge CO.

[thesharpie]

I'd check/call the turn and bet the river. He seems the type to fire again on the turn with a pocket pair or something like A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, and even if not he'll probably call a river bet with something like JJ. I don't like donking the turn since the pot will be like 13BB if he raises and I'd hate folding in a pot that big.

Edit: I didn't notice the 3rd guy cold calling on the flop. I kind of like a turn donk now since a free card is more disastrous than if we're heads up against a likely way behind hand, and the PRRer is probably les likely to raise unless we're way behind since he's got to worry about the other guy. Then again we'll be getting like 14-1 if he does raise, I'm guessing we have 3 effective outs if that happens.

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd check/call the turn and bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

bet/? the river. I can't see those stats raising anything we'd beat. Assuming turn and river are UI of course.

[thesharpie]

If it's still 3 handed I like a bet/fold on the river. I don't know if I could lay it down heads up getting like 15 to 1, but I think that's probably the best move, we've gotta put a bet in on the river and we're usually badly beaten when we check/call, so I guess bet/fold whether heads up or 3 way.

By the way, on the turn we have like 3.6 effective outs if he we donk bet and he raises and we put him on either AK, AA, or KK and ignore what the other guy has, so I don't really like donking there now as we'll have to call the raise.

[elindauer]

I like a 3-bet because

a) the raiser is aggressive enough that you beat a lot of his holdings

b) there's a 3rd player in the hand who you very likely beat, so it is not a time to get timid and give free / cheap cards, especially since you are now getting 2:1 on your raises for value


good luck.
eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
grunch

3-betting this flop gains a lot of value because CO is apparently never folding (3 cold preflop followed by 2 cold on the flop already), and Villain will 4-bet with both hands you beat (AQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif/AJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif/QQ/JJ) and hands you don't (AA/KK/AK/KQ).

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP?

I like that you are going to donk bet a lot of turns though, if you do choose to call.

-eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
If it's still 3 handed I like a bet/fold on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your opponent is really aggressive. Are you sure you want to put yourself in a position to be outplayed for 1 bet on the river?

-eric

*grunch*

You have TPMK and 4-4.5 Outs if you are behind a K with a better Kicker and 6-6.5 Outs if you are behind AA. The Pot is huge so you won't protect your hand by reraising him. I would call the flop, lead the turn. If villain raises again und CO cold calls AGAIN, I guess your split Ks could be behind. I'd probably fold the Turn if I haven't improved then. Villain might be playing QQ or JJ aggressivly, hoping you had AQs or AQo or something like that since you didn't cap preflop. Without reads I'm more concerned about CO. He cold called 3 pf and 2 on the flop. Unless he is a poor player, he might have a draw or a good king and it looks like you aren't able to make him fold.

[HouseCalls]

*grunch*
Preflop - probably would not raise from early position here unless its very loose (6 or more outinely seeing flop) and passive game (and at least for this hnad it seems pretty aggressive)
Flop - You may be ahead although with two other players in at this price I'm worried about AA,AK,and KK with /images/graemlins/diamond.gif flush draw a posssibility but less likely given preflop action. If you are behind you probably have about 4.5 outs to a win (3Q,BDFD, not giving credit for K outs but counting the Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif due to the hands I'm worried about). 4.5 outs makes you 9.2/1 to make the best hand even if you are behind. Call flop. Check/call if UI rest of way. Bet or check raise if improved.

[Stealthy]

*grunch*

Pre-flop I cap this for sure. MP2 may have you dominated but there is so much dead money in from the other guys we have good value here.

Flop- I will call this and then donk-bet a non-diamond turn. I would like to check-raise here but need to be SURE that MP2 will bet. The donk is also good as if he raises again the CO who could be drawing has to pay a decent price for it and might make a mistake and fold.

If I do get it heads up after a CO raise I will bet/call the river unless an ace comes then I might check/call. I would expect to see KK JJ or AK here a lot of the time.

I like the preflop, but would fold on the flop.

[2+2 wannabe]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the preflop, but would fold on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

BOOOOOOOOO

j/k

folding this flop is pretty poor with only 3 pfr'ing hands ahead of you

* grunch *

Do you have a read on CO? He cold-called 3 on the flop. What can we assume his hand range might be?

If we can assume that CO is a decent player he is probably holding a good hand as well but probably not AA or KK or AKs (because he would have capped the flop). If so I probably have put him on a diamond draw. Villian likely has AA-TT or AK so Hero is dominated by 60% of Villian's likely holdings and he can't even be too overly enthusiastic about a Q falling for fear of a set of Qs. What to do, what to do?

Fold? There are 18.5SBs in the pot so folding gives up too much. Hero could see a /images/graemlins/club.gif or a Q (true that Hero can't be over enthusiastic about the Q, especially the Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif but it would increase Hero's chances against big slick) so folding is probably not the best choice.

Raise? This type of situation is much easier to handle if it is heads-up especially without a read on CO. A raise is not bad here at all if it has a chance to eliminate one of our opponents. The trouble is that the pot is so getting so large that either one will almost have to call as even drawing to two outs begins to make sense and they will only have to call one.

Call? Looks like the best option.

Grunch

Range of hands pre-flop: AA-99, AK-AT, maybe KQs-KTs. Maybe a few more but not much. With a vpip of 16, he seems to look for premium hands and then push every edge. An aggro of 6? wow.

Post flop, he's either got K's with a better kicker, AA-KK, A-x suited flush draw, or possibly trips. Figure he might be bluffing 5-10%.

You've got top pair good kicker and a runner runner flush draw. It's one SB back to you at 18.5:1 odds now...I'd call for the one more bet. It's a big pot. From there I'd reassess on the turn and c/f if unimproved, possible c/c or bet out if a favorable card falls and I don't think it improved his hand.

[milesdyson]

do you think this guy thinks you're a good player?

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
do you think this guy thinks you're a good player?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was gonna ask about this. Have you been using the isolation raise a lot? Enough that another TAG might notice and be re-isolating you?

[tyler_cracker]

No one has done this yet, so i'll try:

behind to:
AA (6 ways)
KK (1 way )
AK (8 ways)

ahead of:
QQ (3 ways)
JJ (6 ways)
AQ (12 ways)
(plus, if Villain is re-isolating your or otherwise really aggro preflop)
TT (6 ways)
99? (6 ways)
AJs (4 ways)


So you're actually looking pretty good against his range. Maybe a 3-bet for value is good since, as elindauer points out, CO is going to keep donating. But then, what do we do if Villain caps?

[Aaron W.]

Why did you bet into the preflop 3-bettor?

[ QUOTE ]
*grunch*
Preflop - probably would not raise from early position here unless its very loose (6 or more outinely seeing flop) and passive game (and at least for this hnad it seems pretty aggressive)

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh man, someone else already stole my line, because when I read this, my immediate reaction was BOOOOO!!! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

My standard disclaimer is I play 6-max, so I might be too aggressive pre-flop, but I'm pretty sure this is awful. Always raise KQs pre-flop if the pot hasn't been raised. 1/3rd of the time you will flop a king or queen, and I think only about 1/6th of those times will there also be an ace. 6% of the time you will make a flush, although effectively this number is a little lower because you may fold if only one of your suit flops. Call it 5%. Then there is the possible straight. I don't know the numbers but KQ can only make two straights. I’m making this up, but call that 4%. So even assuming you will always be up against an ace when you play this (not the case), you still have ~35% equity in a multi-way pot.

I could go on, but the point is you’ve got to raise this, especially after a limper. The more relevant pre-flop question here is whether to cap it when it comes back to you. I’ve read one vote for yes, but I’m not sure personally.

If I'm way off base on this, someone please let me know though.

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you have a read on CO?

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of you have concerned yourself with him. I really didn't in this hand maybe I should have. But I had seen him pay whatever it costs to see every turn for about 15 hands straight (since he sat down). If he had hit the flop or he hit the turn he would come alive on the turn, but he could really have any 2. So I didn't worry about his cold calls much since he seemed to hate money.

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
do you think this guy thinks you're a good player?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question Miles. I had been getting a bit liberal and laggy since the three to my left were 2 rocks and him. But I had not seen him play different players differently so I couldn't tell if he was taking a shot at me cause he thought I was good or just pushing the hell out of a premium hand like he'd been doing all night.
I hadn't mentioned it but this read was after 50 hands and this is the first time we'd been a pot together at all.

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you bet into the preflop 3-bettor?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I had, as my freind calls it "premature donk, poker ejaculation" I hit my card and hit the bet without fully thinking things through. Though I still think with 2 diamonds on the board letting this check through is awful. So in order to sound better that's why I bet, because of the 2 diamonds.

[LoaferGee12]

[ QUOTE ]


Edit: I didn't notice the 3rd guy cold calling on the flop. I kind of like a turn donk now since a free card is more disastrous than if we're heads up against a likely way behind hand, and the PRRer is probably les likely to raise unless we're way behind since he's got to worry about the other guy. Then again we'll be getting like 14-1 if he does raise, I'm guessing we have 3 effective outs if that happens.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
If it's still 3 handed I like a bet/fold on the river. I don't know if I could lay it down heads up getting like 15 to 1, but I think that's probably the best move, we've gotta put a bet in on the river and we're usually badly beaten when we check/call, so I guess bet/fold whether heads up or 3 way.

By the way, on the turn we have like 3.6 effective outs if he we donk bet and he raises and we put him on either AK, AA, or KK and ignore what the other guy has, so I don't really like donking there now as we'll have to call the raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Sharpie is spot on here. If it were 3-handed or HU on that turn, I would check-call as he'll often to continue bet his flush draw anyway. However, 4-handed he will take a free card with the flush draw. If raised, folding is not an option at this point given the size of the pot.

The river I agree that with a check-call we are almost never good.

[ QUOTE ]
No one has done this yet, so i'll try:

behind to:
AA (6 ways)
KK (1 way )
AK (8 ways)

ahead of:
QQ (3 ways)
JJ (6 ways)
AQ (12 ways)
(plus, if Villain is re-isolating your or otherwise really aggro preflop)
TT (6 ways)
99? (6 ways)
AJs (4 ways)


[/ QUOTE ]

as you have AJs, what about the possibility of KQs (6), we'd be tied, but he could be freerolling with 1-2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gifs.

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]

as you have AJs, what about the possibility of KQs (6), we'd be tied, but he could be freerolling with 1-2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gifs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, there are 2 remaining combos of KQs (/images/graemlins/heart.gif and /images/graemlins/spade.gif). AJs is already marginal to be in Villain's preflop 3-betting range; i'm a LAG and even i don't 3-bet with KQs (after most raisers, anyway).

I really don't see this guy 3-betting KQo preflop.

[HouseCalls]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm way off base on this, someone please let me know though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think your way off base but not raising KQs in tight games (3-5 to the flop) and raising it with more than that is stolen directly from SSH.

[Aaron W.]

This hand reminds me of this thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=micro&Number=3573300). It's not quite the same because we didn't limp, but it still ends up with the question of betting into a villain who had the lead in the previous round of betting.

[ArturiusX]

Call and donkbet the turn.

[LoaferGee12]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand reminds me of this thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=micro&Number=3573300). It's not quite the same because we didn't limp, but it still ends up with the question of betting into a villain who had the lead in the previous round of betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

In this hand, I do think we need to lead this flop. This TAG will raise 99-QQ here a good amount.

[milesdyson]

which is why i asked if he thinks we're good at all, because if we're good, what hands would we bet on this flop that don't beat an underpair? we obviously wouldn't bet a flush draw here, so we're basically betting a king 100% of the time.

but we apparently had a bit of a laggy image, so yeah, he may think we're retarded and raise a worse pair sometimes.

[LoaferGee12]

[ QUOTE ]
which is why i asked if he thinks we're good at all, because if we're good, what hands would we bet on this flop that don't beat an underpair? we obviously wouldn't bet a flush draw here, so we're basically betting a king 100% of the time.

but we apparently had a bit of a laggy image, so yeah, he may think we're retarded and raise a worse pair sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. Bah, this spot sucks! I think it's pretty hard to know what the villain thinks of you. Also, I think if villain has TT-QQ he could think we're betting with 77-TT.