$22 bubble short stack is all in

[splashpot]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Button (t590)
SB (t3495)
Hero (t2125)
UTG (t1790)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button is all in (590), SB calls, Hero calls t290.

Flop: (t1180) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t1000</font>, Hero??

I was hoping to just check it down, but SB apparently doesn't want to. He probably has an ace and wants to protect it. Do I call with the nut flush draw? If I call and lose, I could still get 3rd place if SB wins.

[bambi]

I muck, seems as though sB likes his hand and will hopefully take it down, i dont see any point in putting your money in here your still good shape

I agree that folding is the best option. He probably has an Ace and you still having plenty of chips and FE if you fold, obviously you cant call, but pushing here wouldn't be the worse play in the world I don't think. Your probably much more experienced then me splash but I was just giving you my measley two cents worth if it helps. If you do fold and he turns over something like QJ ( which i'm sure you as well as I have seen happen) then I berate him...might not be the smartest or most polite thing to do but in these situations where the guy is obviously braindead I can't help myself...

[splashpot]

The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced SB is a moron no matter what he has. If he has an A, no heart, he'd be stupid to drive me out because the Button could have a heart draw. If he has a made flush, he'd still be afraid of the heart draw because he doesn't have the nut flush.

I still think calling is a viable option because it would suck if I fold, the heart comes, and shortie wins the pot. Can anyone convince me why I shouldn't call this?

Edit: You can't even say idi.ot without being censored?

I haven't seen a lot of cooperation in the $22s -- plenty of times people push each other off the pot with the shortstack waiting with all his chips in.

I think SB would have raised the Button to isolate him if he had an Ace. He also has enough chips to attempt a bluff without knocking himself out of the game if it doesn't work.

I'd be tempted to push here. Even if he has a hand, you may already have the flush, an ace, or even a jack with a better kicker. This is an opportunity to get a lot closer to the $100 -- but a very dangerous one.

[Olback]

I honeslty cannot see him folding to you pushing here. It would 1.1k more to him and if he is an [censored] then he will call with any part of the flop.

I would fold and then see he turn over an ace or a Q.

Calling seems terrible becuase what if u miss on the turn, do u call your remaining 1.1k?

I would fold and wait for a better spot. By raising or calling you are risking alot on a draw on the bubble when there is no guarntee that shorty will go out if you miss the draw.

[splashpot]

[ QUOTE ]
I honeslty cannot see him folding to you pushing here. It would 1.1k more to him and if he is an [censored] then he will call with any part of the flop.

I would fold and then see he turn over an ace or a Q.

Calling seems terrible becuase what if u miss on the turn, do u call your remaining 1.1k?

I would fold and wait for a better spot. By raising or calling you are risking alot on a draw on the bubble when there is no guarntee that shorty will go out if you miss the draw.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's actually only 500-something more for him to call if I push. And I know he won't fold. But that's not the point. The point is A) I have a great draw, B) chance of Button busting this hand increase a lot if I call, C) Button has to beat both of us and SB has to beat me for me to finish in 4th, D) If I win the hand, I'm in commanding position to play for first.

Is this enough to call?

[tigerite]

No, it's not, in my opinion. This looks like a fold.

[Olback]

No i would still fold. If you had a pair or something with the draw then yes but if you miss the heart draw then you are likely gone. I mean what do you think button is pushing here? If you miss i would guess button could beat your ace high.

[Femto]

1st or 3rd baby. It's plays like this that would help to take a bite out of that mountain of 2nds in my distribution graph. But something tells me this is still a fold.

This is difficult but I play the fold because you have the not g00t hand.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
This is difficult but I play the fold because you have the not g00t hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Button (t590)
SB (t3495)
Hero (t2125)
UTG (t1790)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button is all in (590), SB calls, Hero calls t290.

Flop: (t1180) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t1000</font>, Hero??

I was hoping to just check it down, but SB apparently doesn't want to. He probably has an ace and wants to protect it. Do I call with the nut flush draw? If I call and lose, I could still get 3rd place if SB wins.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your 2nd place equity is pretty good if you get out of the way.

[tewall]

Assuming .5, .3., .2 payout and no math errors, if you fold and shortie wins, your equity is 21%; if big guy wins, 30%. If you call and win, around 40%. If you call and lose, at best 23%, at worst 0% (best case being you lose no more on the river and shortie loses).

This looks like a fold. You don't really gain that much if you win, compared to the risk you're taking.

[Femto]

If anybody is interested, I worked out the math as best I could using ICM/pokerstove for my own practice. In the end, it looks like folding yields a 3.6% gain in equity (+$36 in a $100+9). Feel free to critique my math--see blog link to the left for full post.

[Uncle Wiggly]

I suspect the math calculations justify a fold here.
But what the hell, go for the gusto!
You're in great shape to win.
Call!
/images/graemlins/wink.gif