6 max hand - 55 [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

DMBFan23

11-10-2005, 02:37 AM

Sup Y'all,

I see a lot of 6 max posts where aggression levels are questioned, so I figured I'd post one where I kept the pedal down. I dont know if this will be standard or not, micro is more advanced than when I was here that's for sure.

UTG is VERY loose. VERY. like 80% VP$IP. no precise convergence of PT stats but this guy is a limping MACHINE. aggro factor of like 1, so he will definitely bet. no specific read on how he handles draws versus small pairs versus monsters etc.

CO and Button are pretty tight, Button is the more aggro of the two in the face of aggression, CO tends to push his hands but when you push back he respeckts. booyakasha.

anyways this hand had a lot of stuff going on.

Party Poker (6 max, 6 handed) (1/2 Blind structure) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, Button folds, SB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: (8.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

MHIG

ArturiusX

11-10-2005, 02:40 AM

Standard /images/graemlins/grin.gif

MrWookie47

11-10-2005, 02:44 AM

I'm diggin' the first three streets. I'm not at a point where I'd be raising 55 preflop like that, but I could see it being +EV. At the river, I'd probably check. This guy is clearly a special kind of donk, but 4 flush boards are hard for even the dummest morans to ignore. The K didn't exactly make him want to call with whatever pair he had on the flop, either, unless he's got K's up or a wonky, poorly played straight.

Thanks for dropping into the micros again. I'm sure these guys won't disappoint.

DMBFan23

11-10-2005, 02:46 AM

yeah with loose players behind me I might fold it preflop, with the tight ones behind me I wanted to try to play against this dude as much as possible

I do think the river is thin but I have noticed myself missing a lot of value bets so I've forced myself to take really thin ones against ppl who aren't likely to bluff raise. some have worked, some have made me look really dumb /images/graemlins/smile.gif

MrWookie47

11-10-2005, 02:54 AM

Fold it? With a couple of loosey gooseys behind me, I'd probably limp it. Actually, at the level you're playing at, the loosey gooseys are more likely to be 50/30 rather than 50/3. In my world, it's a pretty easy limp.

DMBFan23

11-10-2005, 03:08 AM

yeah there might even be some spots where you can limp UTG in the 50/3 kind of games, similar to Ed's old preflop quiz where he advocates a 33 limp in MP2 in loose games, even though it runs specifically counter to the advice in HPFAP.

you're right though even here I'd have to limp it, it doesn't go raise-3bet THAT often. 3+ way a lot of the time, sometimes for a raise, seems ok to me.

Aaron W.

11-10-2005, 03:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
anyways this hand had a lot of stuff going on.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was a good hand to post.

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker (6 max, 6 handed) (1/2 Blind structure) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, Button folds, SB folds, UTG calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty standard. Even though UTG is very loose and might have limped a hand with an 8 in it, your read suggests that he might be able to bet hands like Q4s or T3s (he's 80% VPIP, so he's playing LOTS of suited things), maybe a flush/straight draw, or perhaps just two overcards. Raising will also help protect against overcards behind you.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (6.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is interesting. You raised the flop because you potentially had the best hand. Now you've got a pretty good draw to go with your hand. I think a reasonable argument can be made for betting and for checking. I won't make the argument right now because it's worth letting everyone else think about it for a while.

[ QUOTE ]
River: (8.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if I like this bet so much. Since it's less interesting than the turn bet, I'll go ahead and spell out my thoughts.

Since he bet-called the flop and called your turn bet, it's reasonable to think that he's either on a pair or a draw. If he was on a draw, it's very likely that he made it. If he had a straight draw, he either paired up (76, 65) or made his straight (52, 75). If he had a flush draw on the flop, I would have expected him to donk or check-raise the turn when it came in.

However, he might have had something like two overcards and picked up a flush draw on the turn (he bet the flop hoping to push you out of the pot, called the raise because that's what players do, and then check-called after picking up the flush draw). He may not bet/raise with the flush on the river fearing that you have the ace of flush.

What hands are going to call you here? Well... it's really tough to say. He may call the river with ace high or any pair because he's curious and doesn't want to be bluffed. Or he may only call with a stronger pair (like a pair of kings on the river).

I'd rather check behind and make him show down his hand (instead of giving him a chance to fold) because I would like more information about how he plays, and this information comes at the expense of only a relatively small portion of a bet (because I don't know how weak of a hand he might call with). If I already knew he would call with just a pair, this becomes an autobet. I'm basically too afraid of giving extra money to a hand that contains a weak heart like 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif without knowing that I'll get more than my fair share in return when he calls with a junk hand. The 5-high one card flush simply isn't that great.

I would optimistically call it +EV to bet. A more sober estimate would be "slightly +EV". I do think it's somewhat thin and I would rather check behind to gain information (those times when he doesn't call the bet, I lose some information on his play - Did he lead out with weak middle pair, top pair, overcards?). You also lose that information when he check-raises and you're forced to fold (because you're not bet-calling with this hand).

Since I know your hand is good, I would think he called you down with a pair of 8s.

DMBFan23

11-10-2005, 03:16 AM

/images/graemlins/heart.gif

awesome post

LoaferGee12

11-10-2005, 03:45 AM

I play it the same every street. Preflop, having those 2 tighties is the only time I'd raise here (which you did so that's good). Otherwise, I'm limping.

Flop/turn standard.

I think given his looseness he's calling pretty much any pair here on the river, and I also think he's betting most hearts.

Weatherhead03

11-10-2005, 04:01 AM

I like the first three streets. When it comes to the river I would personally check but thats because I miss tons of value bets on the river. Nice hand.

Stealthy

11-10-2005, 07:47 AM

Well I only play $1 $2 6 Max at the moment on Party so this is my game and I'll chip in.

Pre-flop I can't do this, you are probably right and I am probably wrong but I will always limp this.

Flop - The fact that we raised and now have a very friendly board and the chance to get this heads up with a guy who will bet with air makes raising the only correct move. However ........... a lot of these Party games will see the 2 left to act wanting to see the turn at least. If I have 2 of those in my game I might even fold here. But if I had just 1 likely cold-caller I will raise.

Turn - Yep had to be.

River - I actually really like this river bet. I don't agree that vilain is on a draw he could have anything or nothing with those stats and nothing has happened to indicate he might have a heart at all. I would value bet this.

Players with VP$IP of 80% typically want to see a showdown even when their hand has no prospects whatsoever. The session I just finished had the same type of guy in it and see what he shows down will tell you what I mean.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Hero raises, MP calls, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, MP calls, Button folds, BB calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP calls, BB calls.

River: (10.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 13.25 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has 6d Tc (two pair, sixes and fours).
Hero has Qs Kd (two pair, queens and fours).
MP has 6h Ah (two pair, sixes and fours).
Outcome: Hero wins 13.25 BB. 

So BB led the flop with fresh air and still felt that he could call it down from there. He had very similar stats to DMBFan23's guy. The MP cold call with a bare Ace was also typical.

Me like the small flush value bet on the end!! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

kapw7

11-10-2005, 09:22 AM

Abour river play.

Why would you pay for more info? You have enough info on him already. He is a loose calling station and he is not tricky so why would you want to pay to see his hand?

We made a strong hand and there are plenty of worse hands that will call here.

car ramrod

11-10-2005, 10:40 AM

I like the flop a lot, protect your hand, try to get heads up with utg. He could have a wide range here. Protect from over cards.

The turn is close, I think I like a check behind here with outs. If he has a higher pair we have plenty of outs to improve, and I don't think this guy is folding a pair.

The river, I like a bet here. I think there is value, as he will likely call with no /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

I wish you wouldn't have said you hand was good, I would like to hear thoughts about the river bet minus results.(and to see if I would have said value bet) /images/graemlins/grin.gif

pokerbo

11-10-2005, 12:01 PM

Good Job! I guess his hand range was A8, K8, Q8, J8

11-10-2005, 12:26 PM

I would probably take the free SD. Same otherwise the way you describe UTG.

Aaron W.

11-10-2005, 12:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you pay for more info? You have enough info on him already. He is a loose calling station and he is not tricky so why would you want to pay to see his hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not what OP said:

[ QUOTE ]
UTG is VERY loose. VERY. like 80% VP$IP. no precise convergence of PT stats but this guy is a limping MACHINE. aggro factor of like 1, so he will definitely bet. no specific read on how he handles draws versus small pairs versus monsters etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

All we know is that he's very loose preflop. But since most mistakes (and the most expensive mistakes) are made postflop, I would like to learn more about his postflop play. By checking behind, I get a small glimpse into his postflop play. If you know how villain thinks, you can do very well against him.

[ QUOTE ]
We made a strong hand and there are plenty of worse hands that will call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

We made a decent hand. I don't consider a one-card 5-high flush a strong hand. There might be plenty of worse hands that will call, but it's unclear based on OP's read. There are also better hands that will call, and even better hands that will check-raise. As I said, you probably make a small amount of money with a bet, but I don't think it's very much in the long run.

DMBFan23

11-10-2005, 12:44 PM

so I think the turn is rightfully getting a lot of comments, honestly at the time I was thinking "man if you were a LAG I'd check but I'm free to bet since I know you'll just call and then if I feel the need to check somewhere it can be the river". let's see if there's anything behind it.

if I have his range pegged as A3-Q3, A4-Q4, 33-77, A8-78, XhYh, 56/57/67, or AhX/KhX/QhX/random overcards (discounted)

he'll call with the 3's and 4's. I am ahead, but he has anywhere between 3 outs (when he has X4, not hearts) and 13 outs (when he has X3 with a higher heart than mine as his kicker. he likely won't raise me with any of these, so betting the turn is better than checking. how much I gain on a turn bet will depend on his range of course.

[ QUOTE ]

A3o, K3o, Q3o: 27 combos. 9 of them will have a high heart, and those combos will have 13 outs the other 18 combos will have 3 outs.

A4o, K4o, Q4o: 27 combos. 9 of them will have a high heart, and those combos will have 13 outs. 9 of them will have the 4h, and those will have 4 outs. the other 9 combos will have 3 outs.

As3s, Ad3d, Ac3c, As4s, Ad4d, Ac4c - 6 Combos, 3 outs
Ks3s, Kd3d, Kc3c, Ks4s, Kd4d, Kc4c - 6 Combos, 3 outs
Qs3s, Qd3d, Qc3c, Qs4s, Qd4d, Qc4c - 6 Combos, 3 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

On average here X3/X4 has 72 combos, and he has 6.5 outs, and I gain 0.83 BB with a turn bet

he'll call with 55 but I'm freerolling with 15 outs. 1 combo. I gain 0.33 BB here

he'll call or maybe raise me with 9 total set combos of 66/33/44 and I have 15 outs. let's say as a guesstimate that he check raises me 10% of the time here with a set. he might call because of the flush or he might be waiting for the river. doubtful, but we can adjust this percentage parametrically when we have the EV equation. I was planning to muck to a turn CR here, so his turn CR will buy him roughly 33% of what is in the pot + my turn bet (the equity I give up by folding). I lose 0.66 BB when he calls and (0.33 * 7.5 BB) when he raises. so when I bet against these 9 combos I lose .9 * (0.66) + .1 * (2.475) = 0.84 BB

he'll call with 77, and I am behind with 15 outs if he does not have a heart or 6 outs if he does have one. 6 combos, 3 of them heave a heart. I have an average of 10.5 outs and I lose 0.78 BB

assume he'll call or CR me with X/images/graemlins/heart.gif Y /images/graemlins/heart.gif, to which I am drawing dead. doesn't matter here whether he calls or CRs, I lose 1 BB. let's say he can have:
Ah2h - Ah 9h (he has a 10% PFR so I think he will raise ATh+ UTG)
Kh2h - Kh Jh
Qh2h - Qh Jh
Jh7h - Jh Th
Th9h

the other combos he would limp with (6h5h, 8h7h, etc) seem to have board cards making them impossible. someone let me know if I left out some suited hands here. anyways, 20 combos, -1BB

A8-98: he'll call with these, 63 combos, 21 of them have a higher heart. I have 17 outs against the non-heart ones (6 straight cards, 9 flush cards, 2 fives) and 8 outs against the heart combos. so looks like I have 14.4 outs on average, so I lose 0.69 BB here with a bet.
87: 12 combos, 4 of them have the 7h. I have 2 fives and 5 straight cards against the heart versions, and 2 fives, 5 straight cards, and 9 flush cards against the 7h versions. I lose 0.72 BB with a bet here since I have 12.87 outs on average.

I'm a little too lazy to do the random overcards with a heart calculations, but I would gain on that bet if he indeed could have that combo. I will assume though that he does not bet the flop with it, so I'll throw it out.

Anyways, there are 183 combos of hands here. [72/183 * (0.83)] + [1/183 * (0.33)] - [9/183 * (0.84)] - [6/183 * (0.78)] - [20/183 * (-1)] - [63/183 * (0.69)] - [12/183 * (-0.72)] = -0.13 BB.

Yep, bad turn bet in isolation. I tried adjusting the ranges to compensate for him maybe having fewer hands with hearts (based on combinations or the % of time he bets the flop, you could adjust the percentage, this is all fairly easy to do in Excel actually compared to the utility it provides) but even if he NEVER check raises me with a set and NEVER has hearts, the EV of the bet is still -0.01 BB.

EDIT: crap I forgot the 56/67/57 hands. oh well I will be drawing against those anyway, so that will make the bet even more -EV.

MrWookie47

11-10-2005, 01:37 PM

First off, excellent analysis. Truly first class. I have a few nits to pick, however.

One, I think that with an 80% VPIP, J3 and J4 are in his range as well, mitigating the -EV of the turn bet. I'm even tempted to include a discounted T3 and T4 against this guy. 54 should probably be in there, too. 64, 63, and 53 are probably a hair loose, though.

Two, you say you lose 1 BB when he c/r's you with a flush. Are you saying you'll fold your OESD and crappy flush draw to any turn c/r? I don't see it. With the chance he's c/r'ing me w/ two pair or a set, I think I'd end up losing 2.X BB, where X is the probability I hit something I want to call a river bet with.

Last is the question of if we can throw out any hands because he didn't 3bet the flop. I think that hurts the case for A8, as well as the case for a set. Seeing a b/c, c/r line with a set from a donk is quite unusual. You tend to see c/c, c/r or b/3b, b with those sorts of hands.

While I haven't worked it out, I don't think that the combined total of these things will combine enough to make a turn bet +EV except in the extreme cases you describe, but they're still worth considering.

gharp

11-10-2005, 01:43 PM

First, nice analysis. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Second, I would've bet the turn too, as long as folding to a raise is part of the plan. It's a sort of twist on the "check with outs" thing since, in this case, your outs are so dirty. If we assume he's passive post-flop, it's an even easier fold. I guess the EV numbers tell us not too make the bet, but I'll bet we could weight those numbers around to tell us to do it if we wanted to -- it's pretty close to 0 as is.

Since you bet the turn and he called, that river bet looks pretty thin. Everyone else has already mentioned that though.

gharp

11-10-2005, 01:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]

One, I think that with an 80% VPIP, J3 and J4 are in his range as well, mitigating the -EV of the turn bet. I'm even tempted to include a discounted T3 and T4 against this guy. 54 should probably be in there, too. 64, 63, and 53 are probably a hair loose, though.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with you that all those hands should be in Mr. 80 VP$IP's range. And if you're going to include weighted down overcards with /images/graemlins/heart.gifs (which DMBFan didn't), I think you could also include gutshots. These would tip us a bit more to +EV too.

[ QUOTE ]
Two, you say you lose 1 BB when he c/r's you with a flush. Are you saying you'll fold your OESD and crappy flush draw to any turn c/r? I don't see it. With the chance he's c/r'ing me w/ two pair or a set, I think I'd end up losing 2.X BB, where X is the probability I hit something I want to call a river bet with.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think if you can't fold to a raise here then you shouldn't bet. I went back and forth on this as I was thinking about it so I'm willing to admit I'm wrong, but I just feel like it's more likely he's springing to life here with a flush than 2 pr or a set.

I dunno -- the more I look at it I think I'm assuming he's passive because he's loose, which is definitely not the right thing to do...

MrWookie47

11-10-2005, 02:04 PM

With an agg factor of 1, he could be quite aggressive, depending on his WtSD. Unless he's folding everything you and I would fold postflop, giving him something like a 10% WtSD, he has to be betting with a lot of junk. I can't bring myself to fold. I see the analysis that makes betting -EV, but I think betting and folding will be much worse than betting and calling, and calling any river where we hit a straight or better.

DMBFan23

11-10-2005, 02:06 PM

Wookie,

great points. I sort of Ad-libbed the range, perhaps there are crappier suited (and unsuited?) hands in his range, that would contain 3s and 4s...(J3s? 35o?)

I also am still torn on the CR issue. I actually probably would have called in the heat of battle, but I wonder if this player ever CR's me without the flush? I suppose he could CR me with a straight as well, man this is tough for these 80% VPIPs. reads help so much here, I should have been paying more attention /images/graemlins/frown.gif

either way it seems that the potential for him to cr me with two pair, a flush, or a set would add more -EV to the bet. maybe -0.2 BB?

anyways thanks for the critiques, there is certainly more room for detail. I love these kinds of analyses for TAGs, because the variability comes from how people mix up their play, etc. here you have to decide "could he really have 85o?"

DMBFan23

11-10-2005, 02:08 PM

Q4o with the 4h.

MrWookie47

11-10-2005, 02:32 PM

I find that players that are this loose tend to make additional mistakes by either being much too passive, or much too aggressive, relative to the 2+2er. Given this guy's agg. factor, I'd be inclined to put him in the latter camp. Furthermore, I could even see myself c/r'ing that turn without the flush, with a set, for example, although in this case, it'd probably be best to donkbet and avoid giving a lone heart a free card unless the villain tends to be a pretty relentless bettor. Since your play is indicative of many hands that aren't flushes, and that are beaten by sets or even two pair, it's pretty easy for him to be thinking that you don't have a flush and to think that whatever he has is good.

The other thing to see here is how the probability of getting c/r'd on the turn when you're drawing just kills your EV. S&M's argument in HPFAP about checking with outs isn't spelled out as quantitatively as this. The flush, in particular, is instructive because of how violently it murders us when we're drawing dead but feel compelled to draw anyway.

You know, this post has inspired me to want to work out something substantial on the subject of the interplay between the desire to check with outs, the competing desire to semibluff bet for fold equity, and the desire to not give free cards with what might be the best hand. I think that discussion is underexplored.

DMBFan23

11-10-2005, 02:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You know, this post has inspired me to want to work out something substantial on the subject of the interplay between the desire to check with outs, the competing desire to semibluff bet for fold equity, and the desire to not give free cards with what might be the best hand. I think that discussion is underexplored.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think about this a lot, particularly when dealing with something like

-UI overcards,
-with showdown value,
-in position

against passive and aggro players obviously different concerns dominate. but when you have a hand with no showdown value, how does it change? and how does it change as the opponent gets looser (and thus his passive or aggressive behaviors take on different meanings, and your fold equity decreases but you are more likely protecting something).

I suppose the same example could be applied to small pairs, but I find myself with UI overcards much more often so I think about it more.

car ramrod

11-10-2005, 02:49 PM

MrWookie47

11-10-2005, 03:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
-UI overcards,
-with showdown value,
-in position

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly what I was thinking about writing about. Raising Axs on the button and getting called by the BB, who checks and calls the flop. You're at the turn with A high and maybe an overcard kicker to go with it combined with some other draw: flush draw, gutterball, etc. The proper action is clearly a very complicated function of your high card strength, the strength of your draw, your opponents tendancies, how likely the board hit your oppoenent, how likely your opponent thinks you are to have hit the board (if he's thinking at all), and the size of the pot. This is going to take me a while, but I'll hammer away at it.

milesdyson

11-10-2005, 03:28 PM

don't try to do it, dude. it's too complicated and could result in suicide.

fwiw i was going to advise checking the turn in this hand, but then i see ev calcs, detailed reasoning and such, and figured i would stay out.

11-10-2005, 03:44 PM

OMG.

And btw, awesome analysis. You guys continue to blow me away with this stuff. nh