Assessment

[kurosh]

Bank account: $1,791.24
Party poker account: $1192.92
Cash in hand: $500? maybe

Bank account down from 15k in 2-3 months... I bought too many toys and had to pay off school loans. I have no expenses. I promised to never replenish my poker account from 6k 2-3 months ago whenever I withdrew it all.

Poker... I tilt badly and I run bad or maybe I just suck. I had 4.5k yesterday haha, then this (http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v218/kurosh/ass2.jpg) and more losing.

I also manage to always lose whenever I'm upset even though I think I'm playing fine. Assuming (and this is a big assumption) that I'm a winning player at any form of LHE or NL, including SNGs, what would be the fastest way to rebuild? I'm not redepositing... I should have had 2k in rakeback coming to me, but 1k died with pokershare and I'm still waiting for the other 1k from another site.

I don't really know... I think it's because I am upset about other aspects of my life and it shows itself in poker.

[Moesky]

Find a way to be a happy, then play poker.

Maybe find a new site to play on? I always play my best when I join a new site because I'm not bored of it yet.

[kurosh]

Moesky wtf? I haven't seen you in the longest time and then you pop out of nowhere.

[sweetjazz]

I can't tell from your stats how much EV you lost from tilting or playing bad, but you obviously ran really bad. You dropped 168 BB or so...that's a downswing that can happen at LHE.

Your BR wasn't big enough to play those limits (particularly 10/20) without some not insignificant risk of going broke. I don't know whether you are trying to play for a living or whatever, but I hope not because you don't have a BR for it. I would suggest slowly rebuilding your bankroll. Now, even playing 3/6 has some risk of ruin. You need to assess why you are playing poker and whether you are willing to slowly grind your way back up the limits. I think a lot of people in your situation keep playing limits high enough to run a risk of ruin. And I suspect a lot of them bust out at some point and have to find a way to earn outside cash to start the cycle over again.

Personally, as a recreational player myself, I focus on maintaining a discipline to play within my BR and be willing to play a lower limit when appropriate (be it for BR reasons or to work on my game or for game selection reasons). It's not easy, but I think it's the winning play.

[TStoneMBD]

8table 2/4 or 3/6 for a month. if youre good at poker youll have a bankroll in no time seriously.

[billyjex]

Sucks bro. Seems like you have some pretty crappy money management, even when you don't have a lot of cash.

Play some 3/6, just [censored] grind it out. Stop spending money on stupid stuff.

[Alex/Mugaaz]

[ QUOTE ]
8table 2/4 or 3/6 for a month. if youre good at poker youll have a bankroll in no time seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

Get some good bonuses and just crush some low games. While I'm all for playing a lot of games well, everyone should have a specialty or 2.

[stigmata]

You know this stuff already, but you really should have a 500+ BB bankroll for 10/20 6-max or whatever, which is untouchable.

I really don't know how a player of your experience has got themselves into this situation. It's pretty dumb, because youv'e now limited your earn potential for the next month or two through poor money manegement. It's like being an investor with nothing to invest. Just grind a 10k roll back out, and then leave it well alone.

[ggbman]

Well, i'm not going to try and sugar coat this. You need to learn to manage your money better, and you should have learned this after you over extended yourself last time and lost a big chunk of your role. I think people on these forums read the stories of people like James, BK, etc... and want to emulate how quickly they progressed. These guys are phenomenal players who also ran well at some good times, and i'm sure they will both tell you that.

So, on to rebuilding. You need to have at least 600 BB for any stake level you play. Go to 2-4 right now. Play there until you get like a 3k role and move to 3-6. You can be at 5-10 within 2-3 months, and once you get there its more than possible to make $80-$125/hour there. You can rebuild your role quickly there.

From this day on, your goal should be to NEVER take an uncalculated risk. I dont give a [censored] how good a higher game looks, you need to reduce your ROR and grind it out. This part of the process is not fun, but it's develops your maturity as a player which will prevent this from happening in the future. There is no way you should have been playing 10-20 yesterday. Best of luck rebuilding your role.

Gabe

[SippinSoma]

This is very solid.

Just wanted to point out that the word is "bankroll" not "bank role".

Cheers,
Bluffman85

/Sorry, I'm not really a vocabulary nazi.

[lighterjobs]

are you only playing shorthanded?

if you are going to eight-table you probably need to play full ring. if you only have $1200 don't play any higher than 1/2. 600 bb's for 6-8 tables should be plenty if you don't go on crazy tilt. don't get in a rush to try and win back lost money. I think patience is the most important thing here.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
Just wanted to point out that the word is "bankroll" not "bank role".

Cheers,
Bluffman85

/Sorry, I'm not really a vocabulary nazi.

[/ QUOTE ]

The roll/role think is a pet peeve of mine too.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just wanted to point out that the word is "bankroll" not "bank role".

Cheers,
Bluffman85

/Sorry, I'm not really a vocabulary nazi.

[/ QUOTE ]

The roll/role thing is a pet peeve of mine too.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Yahweh]

Take ggbman's advice and start small and don't get in a hurry. I don't believe you have to have 600BB to play at a certain level though. More like 400 but the point is to grind it out. It's a marathon not a 40 yard dash.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]

Take ggbman's advice and start small and don't get in a hurry.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yup.

Sorry that you are running so poorly kurosh.
I think it takes a bit of courage to post this after some of the blasting you took back in the day.


Also, strongly consider the bonus-whoring opportunities available through the crypto-skins.

Even if you don't have accounts at some of those places already...it usually doesn't cost too much to put in the minimal amount and grind out the bonus (and perhaps get rake-bkca along with it).
If you don't have an account at some of the cryptos though then you need to be aware that you can't cash-out until you get the PIN via regular 'snail-mail' and obviously you can't afford to have very much money locked-up at one site or another.


Otherwise, I agree with going down to 1/2 or 2/4 and really working your ass off to rebuild your ROLL (not role).


ggbman's comments that you obviously shouldn't have been playing that high with that little dough and that you need to conquer some of these money-management issues are certainly spot-on.
But you already knew that.

Good luck. I truly hope you put it back together.

[ZeeJustin]

Low variance is crucial for bankroll rebuilding. Stay away from MTT's. I'd probably play only SNGs if I had to rebuild. They seem to be the lowest variance available.

[timprov]

This sort of catastrophic situation is part of why I bother to keep a metric [censored] ton of bonus stacked at sites where they don't expire.

[ QUOTE ]
Low variance is crucial for bankroll rebuilding. Stay away from MTT's. I'd probably play only SNGs if I had to rebuild. They seem to be the lowest variance available.

[/ QUOTE ]
I am very new to poker and I thought LHE had less variance than no limit or SNGs... are SNGs the lowest variance? Thanks

[uw_madtown]

[ QUOTE ]
So, on to rebuilding. You need to have at least 600 BB for any stake level you play. Go to 2-4 right now. Play there until you get like a 3k role and move to 3-6. You can be at 5-10 within 2-3 months, and once you get there its more than possible to make $80-$125/hour there. You can rebuild your role quickly there.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very good advice.

We were talking about this on IRC, and kurosh was talking about being back to 10k within a month. Of course, at the time you didn't include your bank account in there, and given that it might be doable if you start at 3/6 6m. But personally, I'd leave your bank account alone, drop your rakeback into PP when you get it, and just grind at 2/4 until you have 500 BB, then move up to 3/6 6m, play til you have 500 BB, etc etc. Maybe even make it 600 BB for 6m. If you don't want to have to move down ever again, you really need to maintain a huge bankroll.

If you want to get back up there as soon as possible, you could move up whenever you have 300 BB for the next level, but that's sort of what has you in this situation in the first place, isn't it? Like everyone's saying, this is a good time to force yourself to accept bankroll management. While it may cost you in opportunity cost, if you don't start properly managing your bankroll now, you're going to continually find yourself losing out in opportunities in the future after you hit a downswing.

Take it slow. Grind it out. Rebuild, and you'll be back to 5/10 or 10/20 fairly soon.

[Greg J]

I'm not an expert, but as I understand it, variance in hold em goes something like this:

Multi table tournies >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Limit HE >>> NLHE > SnGs

If this is any way inaccurate someone will (and should) come behind and correct me.

[MicroBob]

Yeah...that's pretty much my understanding as well.


you can also obviously toss-in a:

Heads-up limit > 6-max limit > full-ring limit

[FlyWf]

The OP is currently rolled for at least he $22s, even the $33s if he feels frisky. I'm pretty sure earning potential at the $33s is higher than 2/4, with lower variance.

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
The OP is currently rolled for at least he $22s, even the $33s if he feels frisky. I'm pretty sure earning potential at the $33s is higher than 2/4, with lower variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd tend to disagree although it's pretty close either way. You are correct about the variance aspect though.

-SmileyEH

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
The OP is currently rolled for at least he $22s, even the $33s if he feels frisky. I'm pretty sure earning potential at the $33s is higher than 2/4, with lower variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Having done both, i can tell you that this is incorrect. ($$$ wise)

[stillbr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The OP is currently rolled for at least he $22s, even the $33s if he feels frisky. I'm pretty sure earning potential at the $33s is higher than 2/4, with lower variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Having done both, i can tell you that this is incorrect. ($$$ wise)

[/ QUOTE ]

Same here.

[Jgents]

Bonuswhore (Poker/Casino) your way to like 4-5k (or more) easily in less than one months time. Nothing easier.

[lehighguy]

I've played SNGs and they have the highest variance except for MTTs. You can read threads about it in the SnG forum.

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So, on to rebuilding. You need to have at least 600 BB for any stake level you play. Go to 2-4 right now. Play there until you get like a 3k role and move to 3-6. You can be at 5-10 within 2-3 months, and once you get there its more than possible to make $80-$125/hour there. You can rebuild your role quickly there.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very good advice.

We were talking about this on IRC, and kurosh was talking about being back to 10k within a month. Of course, at the time you didn't include your bank account in there, and given that it might be doable if you start at 3/6 6m. But personally, I'd leave your bank account alone, drop your rakeback into PP when you get it, and just grind at 2/4 until you have 500 BB, then move up to 3/6 6m, play til you have 500 BB, etc etc. Maybe even make it 600 BB for 6m. If you don't want to have to move down ever again, you really need to maintain a huge bankroll.

If you want to get back up there as soon as possible, you could move up whenever you have 300 BB for the next level, but that's sort of what has you in this situation in the first place, isn't it? Like everyone's saying, this is a good time to force yourself to accept bankroll management. While it may cost you in opportunity cost, if you don't start properly managing your bankroll now, you're going to continually find yourself losing out in opportunities in the future after you hit a downswing.

Take it slow. Grind it out. Rebuild, and you'll be back to 5/10 or 10/20 fairly soon.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, not trying to be a nut buster here, but setting a goal to make it back to 10k in a month will be contigent on running good and moving up too fast. You're young, emhpasize learning the game better and learning from your mistakes. Work on your stream contol, and move up more gradually. I can tell you this; there are always going to be people who make more money than me because they are willing to take some chances. But you don't hear about the ones who run up 6 figure roles and lose it all back because they don't know when to settle down.

It's good that your willing to take chances, but sometimes the hardest thing to do is make yourself take less chances. This is such a long term game. Last month i had horrid results at 100/200, and i am confident that i was a winner in the lineups i was playing. So i made myself move down, and this month i've been doing extremely well playing lower. Dont think about getting a certain amount of $$$, focus on playing poker and the rest will come.

[kurosh]

I need to post this to feel better. I had 400BB for 3/6, then this:

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter]FTR converter on zerodivide.cx[/url]

Preflop: Hero is MP with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (13 SB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls $1.50 (All-In), UTG calls.

Turn: (11.75 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls.

River: (15.75 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 17.75 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB has 7s 8d (high card, king).
UTG has Ks Kc (three of a kind, kings).
Hero has Js Jc (three of a kind, jacks).
Outcome: UTG wins 17.75 BB. </font>


villain is crazy aggro

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter]FTR converter on zerodivide.cx[/url]

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Kh Ad (one pair, kings).
Button has 5d Qd (straight, king high).
Outcome: Button wins 14.50 BB. </font>



Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter]FTR converter on zerodivide.cx[/url]

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (7 SB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Kd Ad (one pair, kings).
UTG has Ah 9s (straight, ten high).
Outcome: UTG wins 14.50 BB. </font>


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter]FTR converter on zerodivide.cx[/url]

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB caps</font>, Hero calls.

River: (12 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB has Jd Th (straight, ace high).
Hero has Ah Kc (two pair, aces and kings).
Outcome: SB wins 14 BB. </font>

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter]FTR converter on zerodivide.cx[/url]

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

River: (6 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB has Qh 8c (straight, king high).
Hero has 9s 9c (three of a kind, nines).
Outcome: SB wins 8 BB. </font>

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter]FTR converter on zerodivide.cx[/url]

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (5.33 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.66 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (5.66 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7.66 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
UTG has 2s 5s (straight, six high).
Hero has Kc Ks (two pair, aces and kings).
Outcome: UTG wins 7.66 BB. </font>

That was the worst of it... 400 hands -12.40BB/100. At least now I'm more confident I'm running bad and not a losing player. Back to 2/4.

[stillbr]

Kurosh---
U gotta stop posting bad beat stories man. No wonder people find you annoying on here. Bad beats happen to all of us, what makes you think we care an extra ammount about your bad beats. BTW-- I do think you have skills to be a winning player, but if you cant make yourself stop thinking about the $$ then you are constently going to go broke.

[krishanleong]

By Catt

This is a dim-witted post;
The kind that we all hate the most;
A jumble of stats,
Or downswinging “Rats!”
Like a virus in search of a host.

If you are a good, winning player,
As opposed to a chip-spewing brayer,
Get back to the felt,
Play the hands that you’re dealt,
And soon you’ll be doing OKer.

Take my advice, please, you unthinking clod,
In the form of this good-natured prod,
This won’t help your game,
But will get you flamed,
Stop posting this crap! Where’s the Mod?

Krishan

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
I've played SNGs and they have the highest variance except for MTTs. You can read threads about it in the SnG forum.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow I'm very surprised by this. You sure?

[handsome]

Sup dude... I think it's healthy that you get this out of your system. Bad beat posts are alright as long as they're infrequent. Take a few days off if you have to. You'll come back stronger than ever.

[jgorham]

Solid /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[mmbt0ne]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've played SNGs and they have the highest variance except for MTTs. You can read threads about it in the SnG forum.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow I'm very surprised by this. You sure?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure he's incorrect.

[stillbr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've played SNGs and they have the highest variance except for MTTs. You can read threads about it in the SnG forum.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow I'm very surprised by this. You sure?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure he's incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno..but its interesting...
Why SNGs have more varience than ring games (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=3164432&amp;page=)

[mmbt0ne]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've played SNGs and they have the highest variance except for MTTs. You can read threads about it in the SnG forum.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow I'm very surprised by this. You sure?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure he's incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno..but its interesting...
Why SNGs have more varience than ring games (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=3164432&amp;page=)

[/ QUOTE ]

This line is all you really need:

If you are a small ROI earner, then ring games might have less variance if you are good at them.

He's talking about someone who is better at limit than they are at sngs. Also, I know it'll freak most of the math people out on this board, but I have serious problems with the SD measures as they relate to winrate. I don't think they are anywhere near accurate enough, and we shouldn't be assuming a normal distribution to analyze the math in poker.

I don't know what we should be using, and maybe(likely) nothing is perfect, but the way we do it now, there is a lot of room for error. Of course, the biggest problem is that most people tend to ignore that error when they run good, thinking instead that they are just a higher winner, or at least the interval that their winrate should fall in is higher than it really is, and then they think they're a 1 in a million case when they start to run just as bad. If I get really bored and people are actually interested I'll try to put together my thoughts a little more coherently. But, for now, I think that makes enough sense. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[JohnnyHumongous]

Why are people so negative to Kurosh? I don't get it. The guy has 100/200 experience. I've never seen him be rude or a jerk (maybe I missed the posts) so that separates him from roughly 98% of these forums.

Kurosh, if I were you I would focus on getting back up to the bread-and-butter stakes that you know you can succeed at day in and day out. I assume this is 10/20 or at least 5/10. I would "gamble" a bit with my roll if I were you because it's not like you're a 1BB/100 winner at stakes such as 3/6 so you really don't have to fear a 300BB downswing. I would be a little more aggressive if I were you because:

a) a 300BB downswing at 3/6 is highly unlikely for a strong SH player with ample 10/20, 20/40 and higher experience;
b) you are wasting a ton of earn every day you spend wasting away at 1/2 and 2/4 and the likes rather than 5/10 and above.

You can be aggressive with your roll in different ways, for instance playing some 2/4 and some 3/6 when you only have 1000-1200 in your account. Or dabbling in 5/10 when you near 2K, 1 or 2 tables of 5/10 and the rest 3/6. Remember, 300BB downswings are much, much more likely for 1BB/100 winners than 3BB/100 winners and I'd be shocked if with focus you're less than a 3BB/100 winner at 3/6.

Just my thoughts. Best of luck.

[stillbr]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are people so negative to Kurosh? I don't get it. The guy has 100/200 experience. I've never seen him be rude or a jerk (maybe I missed the posts) so that separates him from roughly 98% of these forums.

[/ QUOTE ]

He just posts too many sob stories and bad beat posts. His 100-200 experiance comes from running good while way over playing his bankroll. Its not a big supprise that he is nearly broke considering the way he went up.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The OP is currently rolled for at least he $22s, even the $33s if he feels frisky. I'm pretty sure earning potential at the $33s is higher than 2/4, with lower variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Having done both, i can tell you that this is incorrect. ($$$ wise)

[/ QUOTE ]

your sample size is too small.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why are people so negative to Kurosh? I don't get it. The guy has 100/200 experience. I've never seen him be rude or a jerk (maybe I missed the posts) so that separates him from roughly 98% of these forums.

[/ QUOTE ]

He just posts too many sob stories and bad beat posts. His 100-200 experiance comes from running good while way over playing his bankroll. Its not a big supprise that he is nearly broke considering the way he went up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he is fairly honest about his shortcomings. He has also shown himself willing to be able to take his lumps. HE was at one time kind of arrogant sounding... but oh well..If we are going to dislike people for sounding arrogant... might as well start hating 90% of the regular posters at one time or another.

[mmbt0ne]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why are people so negative to Kurosh? I don't get it. The guy has 100/200 experience. I've never seen him be rude or a jerk (maybe I missed the posts) so that separates him from roughly 98% of these forums.

[/ QUOTE ]

He just posts too many sob stories and bad beat posts. His 100-200 experiance comes from running good while way over playing his bankroll. Its not a big supprise that he is nearly broke considering the way he went up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he is fairly honest about his shortcomings. He has also shown himself willing to be able to take his lumps. HE was at one time kind of arrogant sounding... but oh well..If we are going to dislike people for sounding arrogant... might as well start hating 90% of the regular posters at one time or another.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like kurosh from IRC, and honestly would like to see him turn this around. But to be fair, 90% of the regular posters haven't said they are +EV heads up against anyone.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
400 hands -12.40BB/100. At least now I'm more confident I'm running bad and not a losing player.

[/ QUOTE ]


It would appear that in your last 400 hands you are BOTH running bad AND a losing player.


Some of those beats are pretty sucky.
Others are kinda so-so. I mean, we all know that it can be legit to stick around in a heads-up hand with bottom-pair. If you get lucky and catch a runner-runner straight then sobeit.

I had a string like that at the beginning of this month. Down 230BB's in no time.
I am up 370BB's in my 7k hands since then.
It happens.

[MicroBob]

this poem rocks.

well done.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
and we shouldn't be assuming a normal distribution to analyze the math in poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

why not?

[kurosh]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why are people so negative to Kurosh? I don't get it. The guy has 100/200 experience. I've never seen him be rude or a jerk (maybe I missed the posts) so that separates him from roughly 98% of these forums.

[/ QUOTE ]

He just posts too many sob stories and bad beat posts. His 100-200 experiance comes from running good while way over playing his bankroll. Its not a big supprise that he is nearly broke considering the way he went up.

[/ QUOTE ]You mean the 2 bad beat posts I've posted out of my 2500 posts? One after losing 30k+ in a day and this? Yeah, I post sob stories a lot.

[ThaHero]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not an expert, but as I understand it, variance in hold em goes something like this:

Multi table tournies &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Limit HE &gt;&gt;&gt; NLHE &gt; SnGs

If this is any way inaccurate someone will (and should) come behind and correct me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course, variance changes depending on your skill, and which games you're better at.

I'm still trying to figure out how I dropped 30 buy-ins at the $11 SNGs but I'm beating 25NL like a drum.

[Shillx]

It is very easy to calculate the SD of SNGs. It is tough to do it for LHE because you need a large sample size, and even then you can have a fairly large sampling error. Obviously LHE hands don't run according to a normal distribution. It is impossible to lose more then 12 BB in a hand while it is quite possible that you can win 20 or more BB in a hand. But when you take hands in blocks of 100, it is possible to get a normal distribution provided that your sample is large enough. You would need hundereds or even more of these blocks to get a reading that is close to corret. I hope you see why you would get such a big error in the SD.

If you take the blocks as hands 1-100, 101-200, 201-300, etc. you will get a much different figure then if you take blocks as hands 51-150, 151-250, 251-350, etc.

So for this reason, I have little to no faith in the PT figure until a ton of hands are logged, and even then there will be some error involved. So when they say that your SD is 16.4546 bb/100, you know that they are FOS. There is no way that you could get a figure that accurate using the method that I provide (and what I hope they use).

Brad

Edit - While SNGs are not low varience (unless you are a bad player), they are certainly less swingy then LHE. I'm currently in about a 50 buy-in downswing right now, and that is over roughly 220 SNGs. I'd be happy to run some numbers on how bad this current downswing is, but I would venture to guess that it is less then a 2 SD swing.

[Dariel86]

I'm with you. I don't know why but kurosh is one of the guys I respect most on this forum. I always read a thread that he has made.

[imported_CaseClosed326]

I just thought I would chime in on this thread even though I probably have nothing of true substance to add.

I really like your posts, you give a lot of good information and seems like to play a good game. I hope you can get some control and play within your bankroll. Good luck.

[mmbt0ne]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and we shouldn't be assuming a normal distribution to analyze the math in poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

why not?

[/ QUOTE ]

Shill for some reason decided to be really smart and pretty much say what I was going to say, but I'll add some things I have absolutely no mathematical evidence for.

For starters, the standard deviation needs a LOT of hands to actually be accurate. I don't mean like 50k, 100k, I mean like A LOT. mike l. has talked about how he believes winrate doesn't converge until about 700k hands. I don't know if I believe that, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the SD number at or above that.

A few reasons. First, the extremes of 100 hand samples are so much to make the SD value very inconsistent. Sometimes, you're playing 35 hands out of 100, and winning 50BBs with them. Sometimes, you play 9 hands out of 100, and lose the blinds each orbit, so you end up down 10BB or so. Sometimes you play more hands, and run like [censored] and drop more BBs.

Secondly, you aren't playing against the same people every time. Each time you sit down you aren't playing with the same lineup, in the same seats, with the same strategy as last time. All of these variables put together make all calculations much more imprecise than a lot of people give them credit for.

Thirdly, players almost always start off in a very tight, A-B-C poker style that limits the variance. As they move up, they begin to add more complex plays, in depth reads, adaptions to other people's constantly changing play, etc. At this point, they already think that they have a certain standard deviation, as they've put in quite a few hands, and PT is giving them a nice number they can look at and feel good about at night. However, as they're adding these other, more variance prone, plays they are actually playing at a much higher variance than they expect. Obviously, they don't see a change in their SD number either, since this sample is so miniscule compared to the rest of their database.


Anyway, as for the normal distribution, I still haven't seen any data that shows winrates are distributed in such a way. And honestly, it's probably impossible to get that data considering we aren't going to see the 5bb/100 losers with 70k hands logged in PT. I mean, if you really want to approximate something, go ahead, use it. But, I hope these people can understand that it's not that good of a guess.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and we shouldn't be assuming a normal distribution to analyze the math in poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

why not?

[/ QUOTE ]

Shill for some reason decided to be really smart and pretty much say what I was going to say, but I'll add some things I have absolutely no mathematical evidence for.

For starters, the standard deviation needs a LOT of hands to actually be accurate. I don't mean like 50k, 100k, I mean like A LOT. mike l. has talked about how he believes winrate doesn't converge until about 700k hands. I don't know if I believe that, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the SD number at or above that.

[/ QUOTE ]

whether or not you can determine your standard deviation accurately doesn't change the fact that results approach exactly a normal distribution as hands approach infinity, assuming that you don't change the way you play (and when you're talking about winrate in the first place, you're making that assumption). even if your winrate and sd change, it'll still look a whole lot like a normal distribution.

i think you'd be surprised at how close you get to a normal distribution even if you're considering 100 hand blocks. if someone has a database with 200k+ hands it would be pretty easy to graph it and demonstrate it. (it won't be solid proof of course, but it'll illustrate the point)

if you're going to be analyzing the math in the first place, the normal distribution is the model to use if you're going to analyze this, and i assume you do want to analyze it since you didn't flat out say "and we shouldn't be analyzing the math in poker"

[ QUOTE ]
A few reasons. First, the extremes of 100 hand samples are so much to make the SD value very inconsistent. Sometimes, you're playing 35 hands out of 100, and winning 50BBs with them. Sometimes, you play 9 hands out of 100, and lose the blinds each orbit, so you end up down 10BB or so. Sometimes you play more hands, and run like [censored] and drop more BBs.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't see how any of this suggests anything but that variance is high. it certainly doesn't do anything to suggest that a normal distribution is a poor model.

[ QUOTE ]
Secondly, you aren't playing against the same people every time. Each time you sit down you aren't playing with the same lineup, in the same seats, with the same strategy as last time. All of these variables put together make all calculations much more imprecise than a lot of people give them credit for.

[/ QUOTE ]

there's no reason why these things can't be considered a natural part of the variance.

[ QUOTE ]
Thirdly, players almost always start off in a very tight, A-B-C poker style that limits the variance. As they move up, they begin to add more complex plays, in depth reads, adaptions to other people's constantly changing play, etc. At this point, they already think that they have a certain standard deviation, as they've put in quite a few hands, and PT is giving them a nice number they can look at and feel good about at night. However, as they're adding these other, more variance prone, plays they are actually playing at a much higher variance than they expect. Obviously, they don't see a change in their SD number either, since this sample is so miniscule compared to the rest of their database.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're right. when you change your game, your results will no longer follow the same normal distribution. they will still follow some normal distribution. the normal distribution that you can use to model your play will change as you improve. this is obvious. but again - there's no better model. are you just saying that we shouldn't try to analyze these things at all?

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, as for the normal distribution, I still haven't seen any data that shows winrates are distributed in such a way. And honestly, it's probably impossible to get that data considering we aren't going to see the 5bb/100 losers with 70k hands logged in PT. I mean, if you really want to approximate something, go ahead, use it. But, I hope these people can understand that it's not that good of a guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, it won't be that good of a guess. for all the same reasons that saying your expectation in a game is 2.5BB/100 because you've beat it for 2.5BB/100 over 100k hands isn't that good of a guess. but people do want to model their winrates. why not model the variance along with it?

[stoxtrader]

I always kind of assumed the kurtosis of this distribution was higher than in a normal distribution.

seriously.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
I always kind of assumed the kurtosis of this distribution was higher than in a normal distribution.

seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

and that's a correct assumption. just look at the distribution of a single hand and it's obvious.

despite that though, as the number of hands increases, the kurtosis approaches that of the normal distribution.

[CallMeIshmael]

You CAN use the normal to approximate.

By the CLT, anything that is sampled repeatedly many times converges to normal. Even if what is being sampled isnt normal (this is why the 'you can only lose 12BB but make much more in any hand' argument isnt valid)

[kurosh]

I played some 2/4 and 3/6, ran bad to $800. I decided to play $22 SNGs. I ran bad some more, lost 7 or 8 in a row and at one point, my balance was around $600. Then I won and won and won and won. I won 3 in a row, got 2nd and 3rd in the next two. I played the rest of the day and finished at around $1400. I went back to where I feel my game is strongest, SH limit and set a loss limit of $400 for myself at 3/6 6max. I ran good. A few days and a couple thousand hands later, I had 3k.

I felt like I was playing very well. I was betting and folding at all the right times. I took the 3k and decided to take a 50BB shot at 5/10. I came up a few hundred at first, but then got crushed badly and quit at around 2500. I've been grinding at 3/6 for a bit and, counting rakeback, I will have 4250. I think I will take another shot at 5/10 soon.

Thanks for all the support.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
I've played SNGs and they have the highest variance except for MTTs. You can read threads about it in the SnG forum.

[/ QUOTE ]
Most of those threads are filled with ignorance. People whine about variance in SNGs even when it is significantly lower than the variance they would experience in limit ring games.

Of course, if your ROI/win rate is low, then you will experience larger swings. This is true if you are a marginal winner in any form of poker. It is behind the constant assertions that the variance is huge in 6-max games despite contradictory evidence from PokerTracker.

Many 1TT forum regulars play on Party, where the rapid blind increases decrease the advantage of winning players but shorten the tournaments, and they have adopted marginally winning styles they can execute while playing 8+ tables. These choices increase the sizes of swings, but they are not universal. For me, SNGs have about the same variance as NLHE, and significantly less than LHE.

[kurosh]

I started playing some shorthanded and HU 5/10. I run good and play a lot. I've been playing, at a minimum, 1k hands a day. My roll is now a healthy 7k online so that's plenty for 5/10 and hopefully will be enough for 10/20 again soon.

Yay!

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
I started playing some shorthanded and HU 5/10. I run good and play a lot. I've been playing, at a minimum, 1k hands a day. My roll is now a healthy 7k online so that's plenty for 5/10 and hopefully will be enough for 10/20 again soon.

Yay!

[/ QUOTE ]

this is awesome to hear, keep it up

[psyduck]

[ QUOTE ]
I started playing some shorthanded and HU 5/10. I run good and play a lot. I've been playing, at a minimum, 1k hands a day. My roll is now a healthy 7k online so that's plenty for 5/10 and hopefully will be enough for 10/20 again soon.

Yay!

[/ QUOTE ]

Good to hear /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[kurosh]

Since someone bumped, might as well update. Up to 15k now and happily playing 10/20 + 15/30.

[Prelude008]

way to come back...I can't seem to make any progress online. Best of luck to you!

[POKhER]

at first i wasn't jelous, Now i am a bit /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Good job, You need to seriously analyse your whole poker "experience" as a whole to avoid serious TILT(again).

To experience this again may bankcrupt your roll next time mate, Good luck at the tables.

[ QUOTE ]
Poker... I tilt badly and I run bad or maybe I just suck. I had 4.5k yesterday haha, then this and more losing.

I also manage to always lose whenever I'm upset even though I think I'm playing fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

You tilt bad, but you manage to play ok when upset :P :P :P

POKhER.

[kurosh]

Well, I made a few major changes.

The second I notice myself tilting, I stop.
As soon as I badly misplay a hand, I take a break and reevaluate if I'm fit to play.
If I do not think I am playing well, I stop. I don't play anymore when I'm tired.
I do not play under the influence of anything anymore.
I do not talk to my [censored] ex within an hour of playing.
I judge my opponents more objectively now. If I think they are better, or not much worse, then I don't play.
When I take shots, they are much more controlled now.


And I really think the results have shown those changes. 4BB/100 over my past 15k hands /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[MicroBob]

These are some very good discipline guidelines that I think many players would be wise to incorporate into their play

(myself included...especially the bit about misplaying a hand and then stepping back and re-evaluating...and playing less or never when tired)


Also - "at first i wasn't jelous, Now i am a bit"