PDA

View Full Version : Loosing on the bubble... Bad play?


11-09-2005, 05:10 PM
Hi this is one of my first posts. I have a doubt about this history hand. Mistake or not? My spanish friends in other discussion say that I made a terrible move.. is it true?
I was 9th and the money starts at place 6. I dont know if I did well going all in with this kind of hand. I think I was playint too tight in the bubble and I would like to change it.
Thanks
----------------------------------------------------------------

Hand #9380693-300 at Wed9amA-006 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 02/Nov/05 11:51:52

sheriff15 is at seat 1 with 10005.
ShamefulBronz is at seat 2 with 18115.
Irish_Bomb is at seat 3 with 18915.
KlaussBB is at seat 4 with 8680.
bones76 is at seat 5 with 23680.
The button is at seat 1.

sheriff15 posts ante (125).
ShamefulBronz posts ante (125).
Irish_Bomb posts ante (125).
KlaussBB posts ante (125).
bones76 posts ante (125).
Irish_Bomb posts the small blind of 600.
KlaussBB posts the big blind of 1200.

sheriff15: -- --
ShamefulBronz: -- --
Irish_Bomb: -- --
KlaussBB: 5s 5c
bones76: -- --

Pre-flop:

bones76 raises to 2400. sheriff15 folds.
ShamefulBronz folds. Irish_Bomb folds. KlaussBB
goes all-in for 8555. bones76 calls.

Tournament all-in showdown -- players show:

KlaussBB shows 5s 5c.
bones76 shows Td Jh.


Flop (board: Qc Qd 6h):

(no action in this round)


Turn (board: Qc Qd 6h 8c):

(no action in this round)


River (board: Qc Qd 6h 8c 9c):

(no action in this round)




Showdown:

KlaussBB has 5s 5c Qc Qd 9c: two pair, queens and fives.
bones76 has Td Jh Qc 8c 9c: straight, queen high.


Hand #9380693-300 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
bones76 wins 18335 with straight, queen high.

Benal
11-09-2005, 05:12 PM
Oh great, another bad beat post.

Your push was fine. I want JTo to call me there each and every time.

11-09-2005, 05:19 PM
I think it was a bad beat, This is why i dindt want to post about it, but some people told me that this move was completly wrong. Im confuse

mgsimpleton
11-09-2005, 05:20 PM
i'm guessing that you just want to know general ranges that you should be pushing with in this position on the bubble... i think a push with 55 is debatable but is the right move against an aggressive opponent who is frequently stealing blinds.

it all comes down to the image of the person who raises initially and your image as well. you are never getting a better hand to fold (maaaybe 66 or 77) and hands you coinflip with might call but the majority should fold. you played it fine, it sucks that a donkey called you with overs.

to the second poster, you don't want this call with JTo... you should learn a little about poker before criticizing so readily. given the dead money in the pot i would much prefer a fold to a call with two overcards like JT.

11-09-2005, 05:22 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Mistake or not? My spanish friends in other discussion say that I made a terrible move.. is it true?


[/ QUOTE ]

Tell your friend to create an account and explain why he doesn't think you get your chips in here. BTW, an alternative here would have been to call the minraise and push the flop (stop-and-go).

11-09-2005, 05:23 PM
Let's see, you are pretty shortstacked and the blinds are huge compared to your stack. The big stack opens which he could do with any two cards. You look down at 55. I'd push instantly. Don't care about the bubble, you wanna win this.

12,585,434,400 games 27.802 secs 452,680,900 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 60.3249 % 59.64% 00.68% { 55 }
Hand 2: 39.6751 % 38.99% 00.68% { random }

At worst, i'd imagine him to have two overs which is a coin flip i'd take any day in this position.

Benal
11-09-2005, 05:25 PM
[ QUOTE ]
you don't want this call with JTo

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. What? So I guess you dont want a call from AK when you push with QQ either?

[ QUOTE ]
you should learn a little about poker

[/ QUOTE ]

You should learn a little more about the poster before making those statements...

mgsimpleton
11-09-2005, 05:27 PM
running the EV calculation for 55 vs a random doesn't take into account the hands that actually call the all in. vs hands that call the all in, obviously you are losing since all bigger pairs and some overcard hands call. that being said, the other person folds often enough that it is definitely the right move.

i dont like a stop and go against a big stack because he could have any 2 cards. so if the flop comes down 972 and you stop and go, all of a sudden he calls you with 96 and you wish you had just pushed preflop. or you check fold a flop of AK9 when he has like 67s...

mgsimpleton
11-09-2005, 05:29 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you don't want this call with JTo

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. What? So I guess you dont want a call from AK when you push with QQ either?

[/ QUOTE ]

certainly not given the dead money overlay we have here. and i don't give a crap who you are. obviously my learn poker comment was somewhat facetious but in this situation, you are wrong, sir.

11-09-2005, 05:36 PM
[ QUOTE ]
running the EV calculation for 55 vs a random doesn't take into account the hands that actually call the all in. vs hands that call the all in, obviously you are losing since all bigger pairs and some overcard hands call. that being said, the other person folds often enough that it is definitely the right move.

[/ QUOTE ]

True that it don't take those hands into account but I would call with pretty much anything here if I was villain. 1,76 to 1 to call if I got it right and Hero could take me for a pure steal pushing any two hands against me since it would be a huge addition to his stack if I fold. Of course, the higher cards the more likely I am to call but ok. That calculation may be misguiding by a few % but not by much.

Benal
11-09-2005, 05:42 PM
You don't play MTTs much, do you? As a short stack, on a 5 handed table, I'd bet 95% of the players in this forum push this. And YES you DO want JTo to call. He can't wait for AA-QQ, he'll be blinded off in less than 5 orbits!

adanthar
11-09-2005, 05:47 PM
[ QUOTE ]
You don't play MTTs much, do you? As a short stack, on a 5 handed table, I'd bet 95% of the players in this forum push this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd push, stop and go or fold depending on the situation but it's certainly not an easy push.

[ QUOTE ]
And YES you DO want JTo to call. He can't wait for AA-QQ, he'll be blinded off in less than 5 orbits!

[/ QUOTE ]

So? Of course you want JT to fold.

11-09-2005, 05:53 PM
[ QUOTE ]
So? Of course you want JT to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, it's still a nice pot but don't you want JT to call and take the coinflip to double up and get in good positon against the other stacks? With the position villain is in right now, I want any card combination other than a higher pocket pair to call me.

11-09-2005, 07:35 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So? Of course you want JT to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, it's still a nice pot but don't you want JT to call and take the coinflip to double up and get in good positon against the other stacks? With the position villain is in right now, I want any card combination other than a higher pocket pair to call me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd love to get a call where I was a 60/40 favorite when there is 2450+2400(4850) in the pot and I got a stack of ~7400 left behind, while I also wouldn't mind not getting a call. Either way, I win a nice pot there. (if they fold, 12.5K and if they call and I win, about 20K).

Only thing I wouldn't want to see there would be an overpair, overcards don't worry me, and if he is loose enough to call with JTo there, then I am probably a favorite vs. his loose range, which would consist of alot of overcard hands and a few overpair hands.

JustPlayingSmart
11-09-2005, 09:20 PM
This is a silly argument. 55 vs Jto is almost exactly 50/50. That means our cEV of having him call is 1/2 the pot or 9167. Our cEV of him folding is 12180. Not to mention this is the bubble and there might be cEV amd $EV disparities, which would make the option that has us busting out 0% of the time a much better one.

11-09-2005, 10:25 PM
Your opponent is getting about 2.2 to 1 odds after your push, so he will call with almost anything being already committed, even though J10o is a marginal opening hand. In the heat of the moment it may be difficult to realize this, but by pushing he's almost always gonna call in this situation with no one else in the hand.

With such a low pair, I would either call PF due to being in position after the flop or fold being so close to the money. I would like to have a bigger stack playing 55 also (med/low pairs are dangerous with these sizes of stacks). But if you feel like you have to play every opportunity trying to win it all, calling PF with seems like the best play to me, cuz if for some strange reason he doesn't cbet the flop, he'll probably fold jack high to your postflop push.