2 all ins with 3 people left

How would you deal with a situation where there are three people including you left in a SNG, you have the big stack (4000-6000) and the two other stacks go all in. You have something reasonable like a KJo. Should you call and give yourself the approximate 1/3 chance of winning or wait for a better situation?

[Shilly]

What are the blinds?

sorry, the blinds are in the range of 100-200, 150-300

[illini43]

Well, if you plan on calling with a hand like KJo with two people all-in preflop, I think you are usually up against an ace. The best scenario would be against hands like 55 and Q-10.

I would typically fold with a hand like KJ unless these two smaller stacks have been consistently pushing with any two. Opponents stack sizes help here too.

[xJMPx]

[ QUOTE ]
Should you call and give yourself the approximate 1/3 chance of winning or wait for a better situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your approximation of 1/3 chance is pretty high, that would assume that all three of you have an equal chance of winning. But, because there is a push and a call, there is no way your KJo has an equal chance.

Using pokerstove:

All-in: 28.4263 % { AA-22, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo } This assumes that this guy is a shorty and pushing a large range of hands.

Call: 48.5113 % {AA-88, AKs-AQs, KQs, AKo-AQo } Assuming this guy needs a premium hand to call.

Your hand: 23.0623 % { KsJh }

6000 chips case:
80% of the time you lose and are now even in chips heads up.
20% you win the tourney.
fold: you're ~3-1 ahead in chips.

4000 case:
80% of the time you lose and are now 2-1 dog in chips.
20% of the time you win.
fold: ~even in chips.

Basically, I think I'm folding this regardless of whether I have 4000 or 6000 chips. If I think I'm better than my opponents I would rather just outplay one of them heads up.

If I don't feel I'm better, than I may take the risk if I have the huge chip lead.

ok I say you had 5500 in chips, 2nd had 1500 and third had 1000. the two small stacks go all in with blinds at 100-200. I think in this situation I would gamble because even if I lost, I would still have 4000 chips.

On the other hand, if one stack was a fair size and could dent you, it might be better to fold.

Even if someone had an ace, the percentages with the kjo still make it a 1/3 situation if the third person had two other cards, like qts.

Im rambling a bit, but what do you think of my logic regarding this situation.

[skipperbob]

It is my opinion that by calling the 2 allins, you give yourself a 75% chance of taking first vs. only 50% if you don't call....These are rough #'s (my style) and my first "on-topic" post since Aug. 3, 2001... /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[microbet]

Say stacks are 5000, 2500, 2500, you think you have a 20% chance to win, you are out of the blinds, and you think you are all about equally skilled.

You win 1 out of 5 right away and 2 of the remaining 4, so you win 60%. If you fold, you win 50%.

Pretty easy to see what winning % is $EV neutral and to play around with pokerstove. I'll do that myself tonight. Good post. Thank you. I probably fold here too often. SFB, I think 75% is a bit optimistic, but you are right in general and thanks to you too. I might not have read this post if I wasn't curious about you posting in an on-topic thread.

[skipperbob]

Jay, U nitwit, OP is not 20% to win first hand w/KJ...much higher...prolly 33%...So, 333 hands outa 1000 he takes 1st on 1st hand; 50/50 on remaining 667 = 333...Total = 66% ?

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
Jay, U nitwit, OP is not 20% to win first hand w/KJ...much higher...prolly 33%...So, 333 hands outa 1000 he takes 1st on 1st hand; 50/50 on remaining 667 = 333...Total = 66% ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was sorta going with a worse (not worst) scenerio to show it was still good. 33% is wishful thinking though. I played around with pokerstove and would think more like 25%, maybe a bit more.

[xJMPx]

What do you think of the ranges I used in my pokerstove analysis post above?

[microbet]

Well, my first thought was the pusher's range was a little wide and the callers range was a little narrow, but works out to about the same.

The range and your chances of winning HU depend a lot on the blinds though. That's why I assumed equal skill, because then the blinds don't matter as far as winning HU. The higher the blinds are, the wider their ranges will be, the better you will do in the allin and also the smaller your edge will be in a HU match if you folded. So, either equal skills (or outskilled) or high blinds will push towards joining the allin.

Edges aren't huge HU, so unless you are really good, the opponent is really bad, and stacks are fairly deep, don't count on, well, don't count on a huge edge.

I'm sure I said something a little stupid in there, but my kid is having a fit and I have to go.

[psparkyuk]

[ QUOTE ]
Say stacks are 5000, 2500, 2500, you think you have a 20% chance to win, you are out of the blinds, and you think you are all about equally skilled.

You win 1 out of 5 right away and 2 of the remaining 4, so you win 60%. If you fold, you win 50%.



[/ QUOTE ]
If you lose you have 2500 against 7500, so 1 in 4 chance of winning, giving 45% overall.

I think you need a bigger chip advantage (or a better hand!) to make this play.

Psparky