AA flopped set...when to let it go? [Archive]

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midwestkc

11-09-2005, 11:51 AM

I'm thinking I fold after the turn...All the flop betting was crazy, but felt like I had alot of outs to fill up...anyways, what do you think?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (14.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO bets, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, MP2 folds, CO caps, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (13.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
MP1 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, MP1 folds.

River: (15.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
CO bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 16.25 BB

numeri

11-09-2005, 12:01 PM

I think this is fine. It sure looks like CO has a high /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Your flop and turn play are fine even if you know you're drawing. You have enough outs to draw to your full house.

11-09-2005, 12:06 PM

Yes that board is horrible but flop cap is good as you probably have the best hand still and even if you don't you'll have plenty of outs. Turn is fine, you can't let a set go yet as you have 10 outs. River...well without a good read on CO I'm folding too, I don't think we can be good often enough to warrant a call for a split pot. Since you're posting this you probably lost but I play this hand the same way.

cfjr2

11-09-2005, 12:56 PM

FWIW - as hero's flush is the board cards CO only needs a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif higher than 4 to have the hi flush

the turn call is fine (10 outs) and river fold is ok here

11-09-2005, 01:06 PM

I dont see playing myself playing this hand any differently. You had 10 outs for the river and you were getting ~13-1. That's a no-brainer.

You would've almost certainly lost if you called on the river.

11-09-2005, 01:07 PM

I would call the river

TomBrooks

11-09-2005, 01:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I dont see playing myself playing this hand any differently. You had 10 outs for the river and you were getting ~13-1. You would've almost certainly lost if you called on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

bozlax

11-09-2005, 01:12 PM

All I have to add is that the subject of this thread made me cry a little.

deception5

11-09-2005, 01:12 PM

Looks good.

Aaron W.

11-09-2005, 01:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking I fold after the turn...All the flop betting was crazy, but felt like I had alot of outs to fill up...anyways, what do you think?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (14.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO bets, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, MP2 folds, CO caps, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (13.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
MP1 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, MP1 folds.

River: (15.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
CO bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 16.25 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

The turn call is fine. You need to think about pot odds and out counting.

I tilt for a street on the river, convince myself that 7.5 BB is a big enough pot, and pay it off. Folding is probably much better.

bozlax

11-09-2005, 01:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would call the river

[/ QUOTE ]

11-09-2005, 01:16 PM

At worst, CO is probably betting the flop with a made flush or the Kd. If you're already against the made flush, then you need to make your boat or quads. On the turn, you have 10 outs to the nuts (3 eights, 3 fours, 3 jacks, 1 ace), so you're getting 3.6:1. Hence, easy turn call. Even tho the pot is big on the river, you can almost be assured that CO has his flush, with his constant aggression, unless you have some read that he is some uber-donk, so easy fold.

gharp

11-09-2005, 01:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would call the river

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
(glad to see I'm not the only one...)

midwestkc

11-09-2005, 01:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
All I have to add is that the subject of this thread made me cry a little.

[/ QUOTE ]

made you cry? Try playing the hand!

deception5

11-09-2005, 02:17 PM

Do we have any reads on this guy btw? Only hands I can put him on here are:

A /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
A /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif
K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif
K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif
8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif
8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif

These would too likely have been capped preflop:
K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif
K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif
K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I guess since the pot is so large on the river (15BB) you can call hoping for 88, but only if you think CO is very aggressive.

11-09-2005, 02:30 PM

On the river is your hand good one out of 7.5 times to make going for the split worthwhile? Very doubtful.

4 people saw the diamond-monotone flop, so the likelyhood that someone among them had a diamond is good. That person is probably the one who's betting on the river.

11-09-2005, 02:32 PM

It seems incorrect to be thinking about your hand being good 1 in 15 times on the river. At best you split.

deception5

11-09-2005, 02:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
On the river is your hand good one out of 7.5 times to make going for the split worthwhile? Very doubtful.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that is the range of hands he would play this way then yes... so it boils down to his aggression.

11-09-2005, 02:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On the river is your hand good one out of 7.5 times to make going for the split worthwhile? Very doubtful.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that is the range of hands he would play this way then yes... so it boils down to his aggression.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree