Want to help plug my expensive leak?

[lstream]

This is kind of like Beer's "tell my how I suck" thread. I have become convinced that I hold onto hands too long on 6'th and 7'th streets, due to over-emphasis on pot odds. I have been letting the fact that I am getting 6, 7, or 8 to one odds on the bet overcome my better judgement on letting go of hands.

Typical situation - I start with pocket or split aces. I get called in spite of pushing hard. Villain catches a pair on sixth. He leads out and I call. I get nothing on the river. He leads again - I try to decide if the pair is just a by product of chasing a flush or straight and often call against my better judgement. Pretty sure this is costing me a lot.

Another one - this happened last night and cost me a ton. Three way pot - one newbie and one solid guy. Solid guy has a board full of rags and is pushing hard. Newbie is chasing a flush. I hit an ace high straight on sixth and bet out. Everyone just calls. I lead on 7'th and get raised by newbie and re-raised by solid guy. I don't fold because the pot is huge by then (24BB or so), but it costs me two more big bets. Sure enough, solid guy has a totally hidden boat (he went runner runner), and newbie had the flush. I let the pot odds over rule my gut that said - "you are beat - get out"

On the other hand, there are lots of times where I have made calls against my better judgement and been paid off nicely.

So my question is - how do you guys know when to make these tough folds, and do you think you make them often enough? I am going to start a mid term exerecise to track my performance in these situations. It will essentially try to quantify "gut vs odds", and see where it nets out. I will measure:

1. What is my read on 6'th and 7'th - behind or ahead?
2. How many people in the hand?
3. How did I decide if I am ahead or behind and what warning signs did I miss? For example, is a non fish showing aggression that I cannot explain?
4. If I call the river, what is the result, categorized by whether I over-ride my own read or not. So if I win a hand where I call against my better judgement, what is the payoff?
5. I will then tally a score that compares what my results would have been if I had listened to my gut versus the results I actually achieved.

Would you guys watch for anything else? I am likely over-analyzing this whole thing, but I think the numbers will show that I have to go with my reads more often.

[Bartholow]

Chances are you are worrying about the wrong thing here. A LOT of the time you should pay off. However, it's easy to be sure enough that you are beat to fold when you are getting odds like "6, 7 or 8 to 1" that you mention. When it gets a little higher it is hard though, and paying off can't be too far wrong. Remember that one correct call getting 10-1 pays for 10 incorrect ones.

[BeerMoney]

I have been wondering about your first scenario myself. I think if your opponent called on fifth, with no apparent draw, you have to give him credit for a pair. In which case, if he leads into you, I think the right play is to call there, and fold the river unimproved.. Make sense?

[Jeffage]

If you have an ace up and have represented aces hard, your opponent will bet 6th when he pairs his board and makes two pair. But whether or not he bets the river or not depends on your opponent. Some people would check-call two pair on the river bc they are afraid you made aces up (passive players). So for some people, their lead on the river makes it less likely they have two pair.

Obv, in most cases one pair will be no good against many opponents. Just something to think about. But what do I know, I'm getting my ass buried left and right lately. Hopefully the bleeding will stop at the Taj Mahal TOMORROW.

Jeff

[BeerMoney]

I just played a hand horribly..

I complete with a K showing, a K is out, I have a 3 flush.. I get two callers.. I catch a king on 4th, bet double, my opponent with an Ace and a JAck showing calls!!! I bet fifth!!.. The rest is even more embarrassing. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
If you have an ace up and have represented aces hard, your opponent will bet 6th when he pairs his board and makes two pair. But whether or not he bets the river or not depends on your opponent. Some people would check-call two pair on the river bc they are afraid you made aces up (passive players). So for some people, their lead on the river makes it less likely they have two pair.



[/ QUOTE ]

I hear what you're saying, but this hasn't really been my experience on Party.

[RayGarlington]

[ QUOTE ]
Some people would check-call two pair on the river bc they are afraid you made aces up (passive players).

[/ QUOTE ]

isn't this an OK way to play it? 2 pair are about a 2 : 1 favorite over the AA depending on the how live the hands are. If you hold 2 pair and always value bet, then you win 2 extra BB 2 times, and lose 2BB when your opponent raises you that 1 time when you are behind. (I suppose if your opponent isn't inclined to raise his higher 2 pair then you come out ahead.) Seems to be more or less a wash.

[BeerMoney]

Its not so simple, right? The whole betting in first position thing, and the fact that the two pair could also fill up.

I think its player dependent.. I know a guy like Hippoo will be more than happy to bet his 4's and 5's into people on the river.

[wuwei]

I think the number of people in the hand is a very important, and thus the second hand you describe is worse than the first. In #2, you have a newbie (presumably too loose and too passive) who raises you on 7th in a multiway pot. You had put him on a flush draw. Next, you have a solid player who likely has some hand reading ability and had a similar read. He reraises. I don't think we're good here 1 in 10 times.

In hold em, I found that my game improved when I started respecting moves from non tricky players in multiway situations, stuff like folding top pair to a player who check raises the field in a multiway pot on the turn.

[RayGarlington]

[ QUOTE ]

Its not so simple, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you limit the question to how do I deal with holding two pair acting first against AA with a 1/3 chance of beating me; then I think checking is as good as betting.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
[If you limit the question to how do I deal with holding two pair acting first against AA with a 1/3 chance of beating me; then I think checking is as good as betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are there no players against whom you would feel comfortable betting 7th and folding to a raise? This changes things, of course.

[bygmesterf]

1. Calls on the end can never be huge mistakes. Even Chip Reese says that if ever you have to make a "defensive call" you do it on the river. However you don't make money at stud making tough folds on the river.

2. I generaly give people with trash boards alot of respect, because they probably aren't bluffing since thier board isn't scary.

3. Checking on the river isn't a bad thing. It can save you money, and also discourage people from making value bets/bluffs. Generally in 3 way pots, it makes more sense to check if you are in a situation of straight vs Flush + 2pair.

[bobman0330]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Its not so simple, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you limit the question to how do I deal with holding two pair acting first against AA with a 1/3 chance of beating me; then I think checking is as good as betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's a mistake. If you bet out, and he calls unimproved, but raises with aces up, you break even. if you check-call, and he doesn't bluff much, you loose one third of a BB.

[Bartholow]

Good call bob. Even though it doesn't look like you make money by betting, it is much better than check calling. Especially since people will often not raise the river when they make two pair.

Of course, against players who will bluff or even value bet aces on the river if you check, now you come out ahead with the check call. I think there is some great discussion of all this in Ray's book.

The default should be to still bet your two pair. Reasons not yet mentioned include not making it obvious when you have better than two pair, and making it more possible to bluff.

[Andy B]

There just isn't a lot of money to be made folding good hands in big pots for one more bet. To be sure, there are times that you should do exactly that, and I know I pay off somewhat more than I should. Yeah, you might save those two bets in your Broadway hand, but once in a while, the solid player will just be pushing the hidden set that he's been pushing all along. You probably have bigger leaks than this.

[frappeboy]

I think I read an article somewhere by either Mike Caro or Mason Mallmuth about this. He said you should keep a running tally of all those hands where you pay off on the end. So if you are playing 5-10 and call 1 bet on the end and lose, record -$10. If you make a good call and win a $60 pot you put +$60.

If I remember correctly he says if you are losing money over the long run in this tally, you are calling too much on the end and need to tighten up. If you make too much money calling on the end it means you are calling TOO LITTLE, because the fact that you have such a positive expectation on the end means you probably fold too often with marginal hands.

[CarlosChadha]

[ QUOTE ]

Typical situation - I start with pocket or split aces. I get called in spite of pushing hard. Villain catches a pair on sixth. He leads out and I call. I get nothing on the river. He leads again - I try to decide if the pair is just a by product of chasing a flush or straight and often call against my better judgement. Pretty sure this is costing me a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

As everyone has pointed out, it can't be a big mistake to call on the river pretty much ever, so to minimize your swings and protect yourself from your own stupidity, alway call. BUT, if you want to improve your play and become an expert, you have to continue to do what you have started to do and analyze each hand in its own context. If you can remember all the up cards and all the bets you can determine how likely it was that he was on a draw. If you can remember how you opponent plays in general and in similar situations, you can determine how likely he is to bluff. If you can remember your playing history with this opponent you can determine what he thinks you might do on the river.

[ QUOTE ]

Another one - this happened last night and cost me a ton. Three way pot - one newbie and one solid guy. Solid guy has a board full of rags and is pushing hard. Newbie is chasing a flush. I hit an ace high straight on sixth and bet out. Everyone just calls. I lead on 7'th and get raised by newbie and re-raised by solid guy. I don't fold because the pot is huge by then (24BB or so), but it costs me two more big bets. Sure enough, solid guy has a totally hidden boat (he went runner runner), and newbie had the flush. I let the pot odds over rule my gut that said - "you are beat - get out"


[/ QUOTE ]

This seems like a lack of courage to follow your gut and an impulsive reaction preventing your brain form figuring things out. This has nothing to do with pot odds...there is certainly not a 1:10 chance given the sequence of events and the player profiles that you win this hand (unless their boards gave them some freak straight possibilities).

[ QUOTE ]
I am likely over-analyzing this whole thing, but I think the numbers will show that I have to go with my reads more often.

[/ QUOTE ]

This statement might be true or false...it depends on how accurately you assign probabilities to each possibility in your read. If by "read" just mean "I think he probably has me beat" it would would be a huge mistake to go with your read. When you are calling on the river a huge amount of the time you should NOT have the best hand. In fact most of the time that you are calling you should EXPECT to be beat. If you are expecting to win very often with your calls you are either folding to much or not betting and raising on the river enough.

Regards,
Carlos