huzitup2
06-20-2003, 05:44 AM
This hand occurred in a tournament a few hours ago; it was online ergo I'm sure ALL of the details are accurate.
I would LOVE someone with POKERPROBE - or a similar piece of software - to inform me of how "I" stood before the flop since there was not any significant action on the flop, turn or river.
My girlfriend was the one actually playing the hand (and the tourney) - btw, a HUGE thank you to all of those who responded to my request for info regarding the best sites at which to find multi-table tournaments. I can't get back to all of you individually since not all posts included return addresses (or I didn't look in the right place).
O.K. then, back to business.
*
There are app. 45 players left from almost 500 - top 50 get paid, top 3 get the big $. The other cutoff points were 40th, 30th, 20th, and 10th, at which point it grew place by place.
There are 9 at her table, her chip stack is a bit above average ( ~ $15,000 ), blinds are $750-$1,500.
The first three muck, she open-raises with Ac5c; this play was, IMO, a no-brainer - everyone was playing exceptionally tight and there were 2 players left to act who could not fully cover her raise.
All fold to the SB who makes it three bets; he's practically all-in, but he's NOT pushing his chips out there because he has somewhere else he needs to be - he likes his hand. I have him on a pair of 7s-10s, but he could have a big Ace - maybe even K/Q. (The last one was, of course, the one we were hoping for :-)
The big blind now caps it !
His stack is ~ $7,500 so we will have a little over $9,000 left if we call and muck on the flop; we'll have about $7,500 left if we go all the way to the river.
NOTE: For those who may say this belongs in the internet, or tournament section(s), please try to see how something very much like this could occur in a mid limit (20/40 or 30/60) ring game. Given the payout structure, she wanted to WIN - or at least make top 3 - so "survival" was not of great importance to her at this point.
So, to reset the action...
The BB has put $6,000 in and has $1,500 remaining.
The SB has put $4,500 in but is 99.9% sure to call the last bet since he has only about $1,800 left.
These are both competent players. It's $3,000 to us. If we fold and take our losses we'll have $12,000+ left - this allows us alot of room to maneuver, but WINNING this pot would be a major victory; it would give us almost $40,000 and very good chance at the big bucks.
When I said this could happen in a ring game I was thinking of a situation where we were playing 30/60 and had started the hand with $300 - were in a "very good" game - but had no way to get more money if we went broke.
1. Who calls here ? ? ?
2. If you are among those who would fold, how bad do you consider calling to be ? ? ?
*
The flop comes, Ah-4h-4s.
If you did call, do you bet / check and call if there is a bet / or check and fold if there is a bet ? ? ?
Remember that the bet - going back to our contrived 30-60 game - is $30, the 3rd player is basically all in, and there is $360 in the pot. Also, there can be no more betting to speak of since if there is a bet both of the others will be almost all in.
As it turned out, the SB had Q-Q and the BB had J-J.
What were our chances of beating both of these hands with our Ac5c ? ? ? (To make it precise, neither of the others had a club in their hand).
We were getting exactly 5-1 if we cold-called the preflop raise; I can't help but think that we were NOT 5-1 underdogs... or were we ?
For those who like suspense, I'll put the results in a seperate post right below this one, but I would REALLY like to know everyone's opinion regarding the proper play.
There are two ways you can attack this; the first is to make the [very] reasonable assumption that both had pocket pairs - mathmatically it's not likely that either would have Aces, but it is possible.
The second is to factor in the possibility that the 3-bettor (the SB) had a big Ace; obviously we are in much better shape in the first case - I am aware that we are HUGE 'dogs to A-K or A-Q.
Thanks in advance to all who take the time to respond - extra appreciation to anyone who can do a "sim" and tell me what our chances were if we KNEW the hands we were up against.
I still have a hard time believing we had less than 1 chance in 6 of beating these two hands.
I AM convinced that we would probably have far less than one chance in ten if one of them had a bigger Ace and the other has a pocket pair above 5s.
It goes without saying that we would be totally crippled if either had A-A. Our miracle flush, straight, or even seeing two 5s hit the board would still leave us somewhat vulnerable, and the chances of seeing any of those hands has to be in the 12-1 range - then we have to win with it.
I'm sitting on the edge of my seat (literally). I had her make the final decision, and the hand did have an impact on her final finish in the tournament - and on her mood :-).
- Chris
I would LOVE someone with POKERPROBE - or a similar piece of software - to inform me of how "I" stood before the flop since there was not any significant action on the flop, turn or river.
My girlfriend was the one actually playing the hand (and the tourney) - btw, a HUGE thank you to all of those who responded to my request for info regarding the best sites at which to find multi-table tournaments. I can't get back to all of you individually since not all posts included return addresses (or I didn't look in the right place).
O.K. then, back to business.
*
There are app. 45 players left from almost 500 - top 50 get paid, top 3 get the big $. The other cutoff points were 40th, 30th, 20th, and 10th, at which point it grew place by place.
There are 9 at her table, her chip stack is a bit above average ( ~ $15,000 ), blinds are $750-$1,500.
The first three muck, she open-raises with Ac5c; this play was, IMO, a no-brainer - everyone was playing exceptionally tight and there were 2 players left to act who could not fully cover her raise.
All fold to the SB who makes it three bets; he's practically all-in, but he's NOT pushing his chips out there because he has somewhere else he needs to be - he likes his hand. I have him on a pair of 7s-10s, but he could have a big Ace - maybe even K/Q. (The last one was, of course, the one we were hoping for :-)
The big blind now caps it !
His stack is ~ $7,500 so we will have a little over $9,000 left if we call and muck on the flop; we'll have about $7,500 left if we go all the way to the river.
NOTE: For those who may say this belongs in the internet, or tournament section(s), please try to see how something very much like this could occur in a mid limit (20/40 or 30/60) ring game. Given the payout structure, she wanted to WIN - or at least make top 3 - so "survival" was not of great importance to her at this point.
So, to reset the action...
The BB has put $6,000 in and has $1,500 remaining.
The SB has put $4,500 in but is 99.9% sure to call the last bet since he has only about $1,800 left.
These are both competent players. It's $3,000 to us. If we fold and take our losses we'll have $12,000+ left - this allows us alot of room to maneuver, but WINNING this pot would be a major victory; it would give us almost $40,000 and very good chance at the big bucks.
When I said this could happen in a ring game I was thinking of a situation where we were playing 30/60 and had started the hand with $300 - were in a "very good" game - but had no way to get more money if we went broke.
1. Who calls here ? ? ?
2. If you are among those who would fold, how bad do you consider calling to be ? ? ?
*
The flop comes, Ah-4h-4s.
If you did call, do you bet / check and call if there is a bet / or check and fold if there is a bet ? ? ?
Remember that the bet - going back to our contrived 30-60 game - is $30, the 3rd player is basically all in, and there is $360 in the pot. Also, there can be no more betting to speak of since if there is a bet both of the others will be almost all in.
As it turned out, the SB had Q-Q and the BB had J-J.
What were our chances of beating both of these hands with our Ac5c ? ? ? (To make it precise, neither of the others had a club in their hand).
We were getting exactly 5-1 if we cold-called the preflop raise; I can't help but think that we were NOT 5-1 underdogs... or were we ?
For those who like suspense, I'll put the results in a seperate post right below this one, but I would REALLY like to know everyone's opinion regarding the proper play.
There are two ways you can attack this; the first is to make the [very] reasonable assumption that both had pocket pairs - mathmatically it's not likely that either would have Aces, but it is possible.
The second is to factor in the possibility that the 3-bettor (the SB) had a big Ace; obviously we are in much better shape in the first case - I am aware that we are HUGE 'dogs to A-K or A-Q.
Thanks in advance to all who take the time to respond - extra appreciation to anyone who can do a "sim" and tell me what our chances were if we KNEW the hands we were up against.
I still have a hard time believing we had less than 1 chance in 6 of beating these two hands.
I AM convinced that we would probably have far less than one chance in ten if one of them had a bigger Ace and the other has a pocket pair above 5s.
It goes without saying that we would be totally crippled if either had A-A. Our miracle flush, straight, or even seeing two 5s hit the board would still leave us somewhat vulnerable, and the chances of seeing any of those hands has to be in the 12-1 range - then we have to win with it.
I'm sitting on the edge of my seat (literally). I had her make the final decision, and the hand did have an impact on her final finish in the tournament - and on her mood :-).
- Chris