3/6 Top pair with good kicker!

MP is 32/16/1.45

I really think I misplayed this hand but please tell me what you think. Normally I checkraise flopp or check turn and then checkraise. This time I had some minor thought to mix it up but his checkraise got me on the defence. Can I fold this on the turn or should I always se the showdown?

Ultimate Bet 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.66 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.66 BB

[The Truth]

c/r flop.

You gotta see showdown. You played it 2nd best way i think /images/graemlins/smile.gif

not too bad.

blake

[jt1]

[ QUOTE ]
c/r flop.

You gotta see showdown. You played it 2nd best way i think

not too bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

[jdl22]

I would say check-raise the flop. He raises a lot of hands preflop and is somewhat aggressive postflop so he's not likely to check this through.

Here's how I would probably play it out:
If flop checks through I would bet and be suspicious if raised on turn and river.

If he calls flop check-raise I'm bet/calling the turn if no ace comes. I would probably bet/fold an ace but I'm not sure that's right.

If he 3 bets I'm check-calling the rest of the way unless he checks through the turn in which case I will bet/call on the river if no ace comes.

Welcome to the forum.

Does any of your advice change if the MP player was really tight or really loose? I guess that basically I can never fold this type of hand and its important to go to showdown

[jdl22]

Yes, the proper play would change drastically based on your read.

A key part of the read is his preflop 3 betting standards. If he raised less than 5% of his hands then the only hands you would be ahead of on the flop are QQ and JJ. If he were a super LAG (loose-aggressive) and raised with half his hands preflop you would be ahead here a huge majority of the time.

These are extreme cases but the best way to approach these types of hands is to think about what his range of hands could be that would be consistent with his play. Start preflop - he 3 bet a raise by UTG from UTG+1. This means he has something. He does raise 16% which is on the laggy side but not extreme, there are people here that raise this often. Does he seem to otherwise be a good player? If so that would narrow his hand even more because we could assume that he puts you on something decent and still raised. The flop bet isn't informative, he would likely do that if he hit or missed the flop. On the turn though you bet and he raised, so he must have hit his hand. This wouldn't be true if you knew more about him postflop - does he frequently raise donkbettors? Does he overvalue underpairs? The river pretty much played itself.

Here's roughly the range though it could vary a lot with specifics on his play. This could be a bit on the loose side, especially preflop.

Preflop: AA-88,AKo-AQo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs
flop: same
Turn: TT,KK,AA,AKo,AKs,AcQc-AcTc,KQs-KTs
river: same

Against this set you will win 22% and lose 78% so you're about a 3.5:1 dog. You're getting effective odds of about 7.5:2 or 3.75:1 so it's +EV to call down.

This type of analysis causes your best play to change a lot based on how tight the other guy is. In the above case if you exclude him from having just the nut flush/ace draw as well as not raising with KJs and KTs it swings you from being a 3.5:1 dog to 4:1 and makes calling down incorrect.

For most hands, especially on this forum if the advice didn't change based on the villain being super loose or super tight then it is probably bad advice.

Thanks JaredL this is very insightful and I will really make an effort to take the best action based on the reads I have. Furthermore I have to learn more precisely what kind of hands a person will raise with if he lets say have a preflop raise of 5%. Do you or anybody have a chart with the relative value of all possible starting hands? I have of course a general idea but my play should improve if got accurate and precise numbers.

I think a big problem I have is that I basically never trust a raise if I have some kind of hand and I guess its here handreading is essential.

Thanks again

[jt1]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you or anybody have a chart with the relative value of all possible starting hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

Make one yourself. It's a great exercise.

A man is by nature lazy. But you are right the best way is to do yourself and really think about what the figures means. I started and like to know if I’m on the right track here.

Holecard Combination Percent Accumalate
AA 6 0,45% 0,45%
AKs 4 0,30% 0,75%
KK 6 0,45% 1,21%
QQ 6 0,45% 1,66%
AK 12 0,90% 2,56%

[New001]

I don't think those are correct, because some of those cards are on the board.

[@bsolute_luck]

i probably would have donked the river again. whether i fold to a raise would be read-dependent. i just can't give credit for AA, AK, or a set by the play thus far, but i think a lot of hands we beat could raise this turn.

FWIW: i don't c/r on this semi-coordinated drawy flops very often unless i can be very confident in the information i get if villain 3-bets and willing to call down/fold based on that information.

[B00T]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think those are correct, because some of those cards are on the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes you are on the right track.

What OP is trying to do is determine if someone has a 4.7% PFR what are the top 4.7% of hands. He is not determining how many combinations this guy has that beats him in this specific hand.

[EvanJC]

trifecta ^_^