More 3-way calling fun

[Gramps]

3-handed this time, the big stack has been pushing (or raising to where it's an "effective push") every (to my recollection) hand since it was 5-handed (maybe 15 hands or so). The short stack in this hand was apparently playing "not to lose" on the bubble, but from playing with him previously, my assumption was that had a lot to do with the big stack being to his right and him probably not having shat (he hasn't been afraid on the bubble to my recollection before). Now that the bubble just ended the hand before, my assumption is that he's opening up his calling standards a bit.

After posting I have 700.

***** Hand History for Game 3006714143 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:17260626 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Wednesday, November 09, 01:58:05 EDT 2005
Table Table 67431 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 4: Big stack ( $8600 )
Seat 7: Small stack ( $400 )
Seat 8: Hero ( $1000 )
Trny:17260626 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Js 4c ]
>You have options at Table 67805 Table!.
Big stack raises [1000].
Short stack is all-In [250]
>You have options at Table 68943 Table!.
Your time bank will be activated in 5 secs. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.

Hero is all-In [700]

Flameworthy?

[Newt_Buggs]

Off of the top of my head I really don't know what the correct play is. My guess is that if it is a correct call, it is only marginally so.

This looks like a problem that can be solved purely with math so you've inspired me to finally figure out pokerstove. Are 3 way calcs supposed to take this long in poker stove?

btw, you should log onto yahoo more often /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[kyro]

I'd call this and hate it. I think SB probably wins this a good portion of the time HU in which case you're in grave danger. By calling, you stand a much better chance of surviving with 1200 chips.

I think you have to call given those odds. I'm about to go to sleep or I'd do the math, but I imagine it's a pretty easy call.

[HesseJam]

I'd say that if you let it go, you'll get 2nd place uncontested 50% of the time because smallstack will lose the hand.

If you play, I'd say you'll win the hand 20% of the time, andbig stack win 40%, small stack will win 40%. That makes it a 60% chance to 2nd place.

But in the first option "not to play" you are still in the race with 700 chips vs. 800 chips of small stack. You will be blinded out first but you'll get 3 more chances to make a play. I estimate your chances to survive the small stack at maybe 30%.

So, the first option is at about 80% and your call is at about 60%.

I'd let it go, I think.

[bennies]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say that if you let it go, you'll get 2nd place uncontested 50% of the time because smallstack will lose the hand.

If you play, I'd say you'll win the hand 20% of the time, andbig stack win 40%, small stack will win 40%. That makes it a 60% chance to 2nd place.

But in the first option "not to play" you are still in the race with 700 chips vs. 800 chips of small stack. You will be blinded out first but you'll get 3 more chances to make a play. I estimate your chances to survive the small stack at maybe 30%.

So, the first option is at about 80% and your call is at about 60%.

I'd let it go, I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Slight correction. If Hero folds and SB wins SB will have 1100 chips.

I think it's a call. Hero will be fine in all cases (5 out of 6) unless SB beats Biggie beats Hero.

FWIW, had Hero had 1500 chips I think he should fold.

[tigerite]

3-way calcs always take ages. The reason SNGPT can't do them is because it uses a single evs.txt file, and to make it 3-way would be nigh-on impossible, and take a ridiculous amount of time to generate as well.

[raptor517]

get them chips in boy. holla

[Gramps]

Dammit, I was in the mood to get flamed. Are people starting to understand the dynamics of these situations? Not saying it's an auto-call, or even that it's correct to call (seems somewhat close, doesn't it?), but with that J4o cheese-shat, I was hoping someone would step up and call me a FPS'ing mor-an.

Big stack had A5o. Little stack had J9s (doh!). No 9, no 9, no 9...J-x-x-x-x board, I lose to little stack, and beat big stack. Chips next hand are 7600, 1200, and 1200.

Okay, numbers:

CALL:

EV(Big stack wins whole hand) = 30%
EV(You win whole hand) = 2.4k/10k * 50% + (1-2.4k/10k)*30% = 34.8%
EV(Shorty wins and you lose to big stack) = 20%
EV(Shorty wins and you beat big stack) = 27.56% (used ICM)

So, let's put in some rough numbers and see what we get. Let's say these are your odds:

You win: ~30%
Shorty wins and you lose to big stack: ~20%
Shorty wins and you beat big stack: ~20%
Big stack wins: ~30%

So, the EV of calling giving these assumptions is

.3 * 30% + .3 * 34.8% + .2 * 20% + .2 * 27.56% = ~29%.

FOLD:

EV(Shorty wins) = 25.38% (used ICM)
EV(Shorty loses) = 50% * 700/10k + (1-700/10k) * 30% = 31.4%

So, given that shorty wins ~60% of the time, the EV of folding is 27.8%.

Thus, this is a call.

Of course, the numbers were very rough, but I think they're reasonable, and 1.2% of the prize pool is a pretty good chunk here, when 60% is already divided.