Callin all in with 99?

[sirio11]

PP Super Tuesday, 38 players left out of 1140. Right now in the money paying 31-40 $820 (entry fee was $162) and 1st place is about $35k


***** Hand History for Game 3006686799 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:17252175 Level:14 Blinds (1000/2000) - Wednesday, November 09, 01:52:02 EDT 2005
Table Super Tuesday(507927) Table #3 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: RedsFull ( $14002 )
Seat 2: puetz ( $42000 )
Seat 3: KidWonder ( $32719 )
Seat 4: JeanLafitte ( $11304 )
Seat 5: finchdog ( $8084 )
Seat 6: SpeedFool ( $37788 )
Seat 7: flimsin ( $4346 )
Seat 8: theking113 ( $17080 )
Seat 9: DonkeyPatrol ( $22350 )
Seat 10: sirio11 ( $34973 )
Trny:17252175 Level:14
Blinds (1000/2000)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to sirio11 [ 9d 9s ]
sirio11 raises [7600].
RedsFull folds.
puetz folds.
KidWonder folds.
JeanLafitte folds.
finchdog folds.
SpeedFool is all-In [37788]
flimsin folds.
theking113 folds.
DonkeyPatrol folds.
Your time bank will be activated in 5 secs. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
sirio11 will be using his time bank for this hand.



Your move ??

[Exitonly]

1.75:1, not very deep stacks, looks like a call to me.

[EverettKings]

Why the big opening raise?

But man... did you have a plan for what you were gonna do if put all in? Here I just don't see him doing this with many lower pairs. He couldnt reraise you without obviously being all in so any big pair or other big hand will just jam. I wasn't there and don't know the table dynamics or your image or his, but without a read I don't think you're ahead often enough here to call. I guess I could see him with 88 or AJ. I guess. Maybe. You need like 40% equity, so it's close, but most players are only making that move with a tight range of hands.

Blah.

Everett

You showed strength UTG, and he pops you. I expect to see a higher pair here much of the time, and if not, you're likely only a small favorite. You're still in decent shape even with the blinds about to hit you. I reluctantly find a fold.

I asked a similar question here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=3834702&an=0&page=20#Pos t3834702) and although the hands are a little different, the concensus is yes.

[Exitonly]

you don't need 40% equity to be right..

even vs AQo+, AQs+, TT+, it would be a call.

but yea, like everett said, ,why the big raise? i didnt notice that at first

[sirio11]

First, I have no idea about the guy since I wasn't paying any attention to the Party tournament because I was playing the FT of the WPT tournament in Dise (first mistake).

Second: The big raise is just part of a variation of my bets with middle pairs in this position.

Third: The bet all in by the guy does not look like AA-KK to me, so I put him in this range AK, QQ-TT since I don't have a clue about how he plays, but if he's an aggressive player then you should add 88,AQ.

So, after some deliberation I went for the call, but I'm not really sure if it's the best play. For me 99 is about the limit hand to call in this spot, but maybe I should change to TT-AA, AK. What do you think guys?

If your pot odds are 1.75:1 then you are correct to call against any range except TT+,AKs/AK , however, this is based purely on card combinations and not on how likely you think your oppoenent is to have a given hand.

[Jason Strasser]

Fold.

It seems like a spot where the vast majority of the time you are coinflipping or are a big dog. You are going to see JJ and up here way too often IMO.

-Jason

[odiggity]

not paying attention to the tourney is the main problem here, yet everyones input on this thread is not to be over looked...go ahead and gamble--punish ur self for not focusing on the game--uve got 1/4 to 1/5 of ur chips in the pot...watch him flip over a lower pair...what did he have over--

[NorthernGuy]

I agree with Strassa... I'm letting this one go. Likely that he has JJ, QQ or AK, unless you had been paying enough attention to see if he's been repopping others.

[Matador225]

Reluctantly I fold. Like a lot of people have already said, you see TT, JJ, and QQ way too often. I would need a read to make the call and since you don't know anything abou his play I think your a pretty big dog against his likely range.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
The bet all in by the guy does not look like AA-KK to me

[/ QUOTE ]

ah, the old put him on what you want him to have play.

do you really think AA/KK smoothcalls there that often? i know i'm happy to move in on a utg raiser with a big pair when he's getting 1.75:1.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold.

It seems like a spot where the vast majority of the time you are coinflipping or are a big dog. You are going to see JJ and up here way too often IMO.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

with this much of your money in the middle, it's almost as bad to pass up a flip as it is to call a pair. that said, i think that there's a pretty good chance that villain is folding 88/AQ to your initial raise, so that would you don't have the odds. also, this is a spot where i'm ok with giving up a little cEV to survive.

i would be opening to 5.2k with a plan of folding to a push from a bigger stack. i really doubt you're going to induce big stacks to play over you very much more by making a smaller raise, and you get to save some chips when they do.

[DonT77]

Looks like you'll have to call 27373 to win 45573 if my math is right. That means you'll need to win at least 37.5% of the time for the call to be +cEV.

99 is 38.3% against 88+/AQs/AKo, but if you take out 88 - then the play becomes -cEV all the way down to 33.2%. So you gotta ask yourself - is 88 in the guy's range, if you're not sure then I think it's a fold because you'll be calling all-in on a nearly neutral EV situation.

[zambonidrivr]

I fold, unless I have a solid read. Need to win a couple of these to win...

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like you'll have to call 27373 to win 45573 if my math is right. That means you'll need to win at least 37.5% of the time for the call to be +cEV.

99 is 38.3% against 88+/AQs/AKo, but if you take out 88 - then the play becomes -cEV all the way down to 33.2%. So you gotta ask yourself - is 88 in the guy's range, if you're not sure then I think it's a fold because you'll be calling all-in on a nearly neutral EV situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

what's tricky is estimating the chance that villain is playing back because op has been opening a lot of pots (i assume he has) or is just a total donk and has something like 75s/A7s/44. obviously the odds are not very high, but they're not zero. in spots like this i sometimes open up the hh and scan back to find a pot where villain won or lost a lot of chips and see if anything abnormal happened.

fwiw, i think the key to the hand is guessing correctly whether villain will push AQ. i probably would if i were him, but i don't think it's common enough to count on.

[Roman]

I fold this, many players dont push here with AQ, seems like you are dominated too often. I understand that varying your pf raises must be important to you, but this is not the right time to do it, the big raise is uncharacteristic of a big pair and has the additional misfortune of almost commiting you to the pot. So yea, I would raise a normal amount and fold to a push.

[woodguy]

Given that you are left w/ 13.5 BB's (although the blinds are next door), probably fold.

With no antes, 13.5 is a workable stack at Party, and barring a read you are a dog to the range, and not quite getting the right price.

I think you can get your $$$ in better.

I know you mix it up with the PF raises, but this is why I'm usually raising 2.5BB's in this spot, as it doesn't tie me to the pot if something like this happens behind me.

Regards,
Woodguy

[Jason Strasser]

I could be wrong, but my gut says that a call here is -cEV. I'm not exacltly sure what range this would imply for the reraiser, but my gut says that its going to often be strong enough to warrant a fold

[Roman]

[ QUOTE ]
I could be wrong, but my gut says that a call here is -cEV. I'm not exacltly sure what range this would imply for the reraiser, but my gut says that its going to often be strong enough to warrant a fold

[/ QUOTE ]
ditto

[JC_Saves]

(blind)

I think that I would lay this down in this situation. there are too many hands that have you beat and you have a decent stack still. There is no reason to get crazy with this hand.

[Lloyd]

Ok, you're getting 1.66 to 1 odds. You need 37.5% equity to break even here. If you put him on AK, QQ-TT you have 35% equity. Add in AA-KK and you're down to 31% equity. Even adding in AQ just gives you 37% equity. Any way you look at this it seems like it should be a fold unless he's a very aggressive player (and you don't have that type of read on him). I think a reasonable range here is AK, QQ-TT with some possibility of AA, KK, and 99/88 (fairly unlikely). Against that range, TT has 41% equity which I think is marginally enough to make the call.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, you're getting 1.66 to 1 odds. You need 37.5% equity to break even here. If you put him on AK, QQ-TT you have 35% equity. Add in AA-KK and you're down to 31% equity. Even adding in AQ just gives you 37% equity. Any way you look at this it seems like it should be a fold unless he's a very aggressive player (and you don't have that type of read on him). I think a reasonable range here is AK, QQ-TT with some possibility of AA, KK, and 99/88 (fairly unlikely). Against that range, TT has 41% equity which I think is marginally enough to make the call.

[/ QUOTE ]

end of thread.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, you're getting 1.66 to 1 odds. You need 37.5% equity to break even here. If you put him on AK, QQ-TT you have 35% equity. Add in AA-KK and you're down to 31% equity. Even adding in AQ just gives you 37% equity. Any way you look at this it seems like it should be a fold unless he's a very aggressive player (and you don't have that type of read on him). I think a reasonable range here is AK, QQ-TT with some possibility of AA, KK, and 99/88 (fairly unlikely). Against that range, TT has 41% equity which I think is marginally enough to make the call.

[/ QUOTE ]

end of thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

Almost. You have to keep AA/KK in his range. Most people don't smooth call AA/KK there, and given that they raise, and any raise is committing, they just move in and hope to look a little suspicious. Very very few people will make that smooth call, probably because it's not a good idea.

Everett

PS 40% equity, 37.5% equity, either way you're really stretching to make this a skimpily +cev call.

[PFrese]

Reluctantly fold. This is less of a math problem and more of a people problem. Meaning - there is no way that a late position player is going to PUSH with anything that you already have beat - maybe, maybe AKs. Everything else he makes this play with has you dominated, especially since you are UTG. He knows you have something good (99 is on the bottom of the something good range, for me anyway). Is he really trying to steal this pot? When I choose to steal pots it is usually NOT from an UTG raiser. He has you beat. Fold.

And, lastly - do you really want to CALL off your tourney life with 99, preflop? Not me. I hate calling all in here.

[ZeroPointMachine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, you're getting 1.66 to 1 odds. You need 37.5% equity to break even here. If you put him on AK, QQ-TT you have 35% equity. Add in AA-KK and you're down to 31% equity. Even adding in AQ just gives you 37% equity. Any way you look at this it seems like it should be a fold unless he's a very aggressive player (and you don't have that type of read on him). I think a reasonable range here is AK, QQ-TT with some possibility of AA, KK, and 99/88 (fairly unlikely). Against that range, TT has 41% equity which I think is marginally enough to make the call.

[/ QUOTE ]

end of thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

When did the hand change from 99 to TT?

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, you're getting 1.66 to 1 odds. You need 37.5% equity to break even here. If you put him on AK, QQ-TT you have 35% equity. Add in AA-KK and you're down to 31% equity. Even adding in AQ just gives you 37% equity. Any way you look at this it seems like it should be a fold unless he's a very aggressive player (and you don't have that type of read on him). I think a reasonable range here is AK, QQ-TT with some possibility of AA, KK, and 99/88 (fairly unlikely). Against that range, TT has 41% equity which I think is marginally enough to make the call.

[/ QUOTE ]

end of thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

Almost. You have to keep AA/KK in his range. Most people don't smooth call AA/KK there, and given that they raise, and any raise is committing, they just move in and hope to look a little suspicious. Very very few people will make that smooth call, probably because it's not a good idea.

Everett

PS 40% equity, 37.5% equity, either way you're really stretching to make this a skimpily +cev call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Did I not specifically say that I was adding SOME possibility of AA/KK? I'm not 100% certain that they would push pre-flop with those hands, but it's certainly a possibility which is why they were partially included in my analysis.

[sirio11]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The bet all in by the guy does not look like AA-KK to me

[/ QUOTE ]

ah, the old put him on what you want him to have play.

do you really think AA/KK smoothcalls there that often? i know i'm happy to move in on a utg raiser with a big pair when he's getting 1.75:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have AA in LP with 37k, blinds are 1-2k and somebody with a 34k stack raised to 7k in EP. Are you telling me that your only options here are smoothcall or push?

What about

1) Raising to 15k
2) Raising to 18k
3) Raising to 21k
4) Raising to 24k

5) Hell, even miniraising to 13k.

This has nothing to do with what I want him to have to play. Just based on my experience in this spot, check your pokertracker or we can make a poll here to see which % of the time a guy is pushing with AA here versus options 1,2,3,4,5

[sirio11]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, you're getting 1.66 to 1 odds. You need 37.5% equity to break even here. If you put him on AK, QQ-TT you have 35% equity. Add in AA-KK and you're down to 31% equity. Even adding in AQ just gives you 37% equity. Any way you look at this it seems like it should be a fold unless he's a very aggressive player (and you don't have that type of read on him). I think a reasonable range here is AK, QQ-TT with some possibility of AA, KK, and 99/88 (fairly unlikely). Against that range, TT has 41% equity which I think is marginally enough to make the call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, TT sounds about right. This is one of the spots where you wish you could make all this analysis faster.

[lotus776]

yaeh, check his stack. Why would you gable (coin toss at best) against some dude that could cripple you?

[suited_ace]

Caveat: I never played an MTT higher than a $22.

That being said, I think I'm folding here. Villain is going over the top of an UTG raiser. If you don't have a LAG image, his range is prolly something like AA-TT, AK (and I'm being optimistic w/ those TT). You're a 2-to-1 dog against that.

If you were in MP it would be a whole different situation, though...

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, TT sounds about right. This is one of the spots where you wish you could make all this analysis faster.

[/ QUOTE ]
Always a challenge, particularly on some of the sites that don't give a lot of time, or in live play of course. For me, I think that doing these types of calculations over and over just helps with the instincts. You said TT felt right and you were correct. That's based on instinct which is from a lot of experience and cranking out these types of calcs in the past.

But at the end of the day, is there a HUGE difference between calling with 99 v TT? We're really talking about subtle differences in the strength of the hand. And yes, those differences are probably what separates a decent player from a good one. But in any given tourney I don't think it's really a big deal. Now, if you're calling with 7s that's something else.

So the bottom line is when you're faced with a decision that's offering you about 1.7 to 1 odds, you're opponent isn't overly aggressive, and there's no reason for him to think that you're raise is more likely a steak - you should be calling with TT+, AK. And if we're getting worse than 1.7 to 1 odds, we need to tighten it up. Better than 1.7 to 1 and we can call with a smaller pair and perhaps AQ. If we can somehow plug that into our brain it will come in hand at some point.

[BPA234]

Hey David:

IMO, assuming I don't know you, and that we are dealing with a standard table during that phase of the tournament, I would immediately put you on med PP. Knowing you, I would suspect med. PP or much better, possibly AK.
In either case, I am only reraising allin with a strong PP, or maybe AK if I think you will fold.

If you had a read that the villain's allin was a play or very wide range of holdings, than I think a call could be in order for you. Your ability to maximize the use of a large stack and drive to a deeper finish is an easy argument for calling.

Conversely, folding is validated by your skill level. I believe you can fold here and still be a factor in the tourney.

Brian

Last night at a live MTT, I had 99 UTG, raised 3x BB, and CO smooth called. Flop was all low cards, I checked to the CO who made a pot sized bet, to which I folded (she showed JJ). It certainly helped that I had played with her before and had a pretty good read. This shows how important reads are (I know this is an online example, but reading betting patterns are just as important). Without a read, it's hard to say what the correct move is, but if I raised 4x BB and got reraised pf I'd be pretty scared of an overpair. Then again, your opponent may just be trying to isolate you with AK-AJ or something. A read would really help here.