10-20 Flop Problem

[Clarkmeister]

I open raise UTG+1 with QdQh. Maniac who is only maniacal headsup and plays "strong straightforward" poker multiway 3-bets in MP (this means a high quality hand), Calling Station cold calls in the CO, Forum Lurker who knows who I am calls in the SB. Forum Lurker plays typical solid 2+2 style poker, fast and aggressive, with a tendancy to semibluff too much (as is typical of forumites IMO) , Predictable BB calls, I call.

This fine lineup of 5 takes the flop for 15sbs. Calling station looks to Maniac and says "All the Aces look like they are out" to which Maniac says "I'm not looking for Aces, I've already got my hand"

Flop: 7s 6d 5c. Checked to me, I bet, Maniac raises, calling station calls, Lurker in the SB checkraise 3 bets, BB folds and its on me for 2 more bets with 23 in the pot.

Raise, call or fold? Why and what's your plan?

[PokerPrince]

I fold the ladies in this spot. From my experience, a check reraise means a lot, especially from someone who plays solid poker. He's not scared of a big overpair when he makes this move, and I doubt he would check 3-bet a semibluff into a field. I think with the level of strenght shown by others, and the cooridation of the board, this is a logical laydown.

PokerPrince

[baseball38]

I fold, this has the makings of a "cost you alot of chips and come in 2nd or 3rd hand".

baseball38 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif

[RollaJ]

Looks like your drawing to a Queen and a fold is probably in order, although there is an outside chance of being ahead it seems you are probably up against a set or str8 (although that would mean calling $25 preflop with 8-9) in the SB and maybe aginst aces/kings somewhere else , and will be paying alot to find out. A solid player is not going to check raise 2 preflop raisers with crap IMO.
Me thinks your beat

[Dixie]

I would fold. I think that you are behind. It looks like MP probably has AA or KK and it looks as though he is probably behind to SB who appears to have flopped a set. SB's re-raise makes it negative EV to try the turn for your 2 outer.

[David Steele]

At first a fold seems right but:

1. SB should not have likely slowplayed AA or KK BFTF with this multiway pot, so it is curious what he has. If he played 99 or 88 this way, it's semibluffish, considering all the strength shown, and JJ or QQ are also possible. Maybe even 9,10s but the preflop call is questionable.

2. The MP's comment about a made hand could be a "strong means weak" tell and gives more weight to AK and possibly suited with a back door flush.

3. The calling station can't scare you too much at this point.

I think you should call and strongly consider raising SB on the turn, betting if checked to, if a not too scary card comes.

If someone shows a lot of strength on the turn, it would be time to back off.

Maybe SB went for some deception and has the big pair,made a set with a weaker pair or MP too might be telling the truth but the pot is big and one can't be giving up QQ just based on flop-noise. Also, as the big DS mentions many times, the extra chance you can hit the 2-outer is not insignifigant in these decisions.

D.

[rharless]

I think you are, at best, 2nd place with little chance to improve, so I would fold.

If I felt that SB is the type to CRR with a hand like pair+draw or maybe two pair (87/88/99/76 etc) on this flop, AND if I felt that maniac could fold, then I would call, planning to raise the SB's turn bet (provided the turn is not a killer). I don't think I could personally make a good enough read on BOTH players to execute this play, though (if it is even correct?).

[Clarkmeister]

"If I felt that SB is the type to CRR with a hand like pair+draw or maybe two pair (87/88/99/76 etc) on this flop"

Just in case it wasn't clear in my player description, I definitely think this is a possibility, and one of the reasons I think this was a difficult choice. Another reason is that Maniac could easily play JJ this way.

[Vehn]

I wavered on this for a while and I think its a fold. Why? Because very likely the maniac will make it 4 bets (cause, you know, thats what they do) and the SB will cap and you still have no idea where you are or if you hand is good, and trapped between these two you could go off for even more bets on the real streets with 2 or zero outs, plus you could put all this action in and then have to fold when a 8, 4, or 9 comes off on the river and there's a bet and a raise. Think about it, what cards can come off on the turn and river that will either make you a winner or keep you in front if you are ahead now? Not a helluva lot. Pick a better spot or go runner runner queens.

P.S. I think this is one of those decisions where you really have to sit there and call time and work it out for ~20 seconds before you make your move.

[ML4L]

Hey Clark,

Something about this hand reminds me of your KJo hand from a few days ago... But, this time I think you should fold. Maniac has AA-JJ or AK, so it's about 50/50 whether you have him at the moment. But, I think the absence of a flush draw means that, between the SB and CO, one of them has a hand. Each could have the straight, a set, or two pair. Best case scenario: the CO has A7 or 88 and the SB is on a complete bluff. Are you going to have the best hand here some of the time? Yes. Is this a good place to get more money in? No, and there are a couple of reasons. One, is that a lot of cards are going to make it difficult to bet with confidence on the next two rounds. What do you do if an 8 falls? Or a 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, A? But, the most compelling reason for you to fold is your position. Your call does not close the action, as you have two players still acting behind you. Maniac might make it 4-bets. On the turn, you could get caught in the middle of two raisers. You cannot buy a free card. If you see the turn, your only hope is for the SB to bet, you to raise, the other two to muck, and then you get to go heads-up against a player representing a strong hand. I'm rambling now and don't have time to edit this into a coherent post, but I think I made my point. Hope it worked out one way or another...

ML4L

[David Steele]

Clark wrote "Maniac who is only maniacal headsup",

I am assuming he wouldn't cap here with say overcards.

D.

[Ulysses]

Yeah, maybe he's behind. Sometimes you lose a lot of money on a hand. That's just the way it goes.

Anyway, I'd 4-bet and see who caps it. Then, depending on a whole host of factors, I'll either check or bet the turn. If it gets raised and re-raised back to me, that's when I probably let my Queens go.

With this many people in the pot and a maniac who would pump back, I think SB would have re-raised pre-flop w/ KK or AA. I put him on a pocket pair JJ or smaller. Wouldn't he want to get you out w/ 88-JJ? Now, maybe he flopped a set, but that's just the way it goes. If he did, you should plan on catching a Queen on the turn.

Maniac? Well, I just never give maniacs much credit for hands. Maybe he has AA. Or maybe he has TT. Or maybe he has AK. When maniacs get better hands than me, they usually get a couple of extra BB from me. But when I get better hands than them, I get those back with 600% interest.

Calling station? I dunno. A7s? Who has time to be worried about calling stations?

[J.A.Sucker]

You are exactly correct, Ulysses. (Aside for Rick N.: Of course I agree with him, he's my alter-ego /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif ). Your job is to reraise. Who knows what they have? Who cares on the flop? This is a mondo pot and you've got an overpair.

I agree that AA and KK are likely not out, but even if they are, you're just gonna have to spike a Q, which is fine. The maniac could have 2 pair, he could have 88, he could have diddly squat. You just never know. Hopefully, you can get this thing between you, calling station, and maniac, but not likely. In any event, I wouldn't fold here, even if I was playing with Clarkmeister's money...

i]Post EDIT:[/i] I originally misread the post here and thought that this guy was a true maniac. However, as my post below indicates, I think that this guy is a top player, if Clark's description is correct. You've got to see the turn here, but I think that calling is most prudent. It sounds like "Maniac" has KK. Who knows what SB has, but he may have you beat. Raising still isn't terrible, since you may slow down the turn action, but calling is maybe where I'd be at.

[Lee Jones]

Here's what I think:

"Oh $(*&(*@&$*(@&."

I take a turn card off, and if it's not a queen, I'm done. I'm not willing to put anybody on 98 yet, so if a queen comes off, I think I have the nuts. And I'm obviously getting the right price to catch one (thanks - I'm not sure I would have seen it if you hadn't counted the pot for me).

But that's it - there's NFW that I'm in front right now, so I hit a two-outer on the turn, or I'm gone.

Regards, Lee

[J.A.Sucker]

Maniac who is only maniacal headsup and plays "strong straightforward" poker multiway 3-bets

This sounds like a very dangerous, expert player. You agree? If so, then you need to be more cautious on this hand, but you should still not fold this flop. I'm sure that more than one person who has played with me would characterize me as you did this guy. But then again, I'm Just Another Sucker.

[Clarkmeister]

He wasn't dangerous. He saw roughly 75% of flops and it took a cannon to get him to fold before the river. But when he showed strength it gave most people at the table fits because it was tough to put him on a hand.

By Strong Straightforward I mean that on flops like AK9, he'd push his A3o very very hard on the flop and get a better ace to fold on the turn when a scare card came.

But on this particular hand, I thought his actions to this point were legitimate. He tended to tangle with the weaker players and more or less left me alone unless he had "something decent". Headsup against me he wouldn't even raise top pair and would just call down. Against anyone else at the table, he'd be willing to go 3 bets on flop *and* sometimes even on the turn with top pair no kicker.

FWIW, I bet into him on the flop because I both believed he had "something" and further would raise it, confronting the field with 2 bets.

[Ulysses]

I originally misread the post here and thought that this guy was a true maniac. However, as my post below indicates, I think that this guy is a top player, if Clark's description is correct. You've got to see the turn here, but I think that calling is most prudent. It sounds like "Maniac" has KK. Who knows what SB has, but he may have you beat. Raising still isn't terrible, since you may slow down the turn action, but calling is maybe where I'd be at.

OK, I skimmed over the post and also didn't fully digest the description of the "maniac." Even understanding that he's not a true maniac, I'd still re-raise on the flop. Why?

a) I'm not going to fold.
b) If I'm not going to fold, there's a good chance it gets capped after I cold-call anyway.
c) If I raise, I have a better chance of getting a semi-useful read when the other guys act.

[Lee Jones]

No, I couldn't believe folding either, because he's getting the right price to catch a queen on the turn.

But here's an interesting point: it doesn't matter. I mean, he's getting 23:1 on a 22:1 shot, and the variance is going through the roof.

In short, I'd call, but I think if, in a parallel universe, I folded, the difference in lifetime results between the two parallel me's would be indistinsguishable, even if we diverged every time this situation came up.

Regards, Lee

[Clarkmeister]

Lee,

I am getting 23:2, not 23:1.

Does that change your opinion?

[J.A.Sucker]

I can see your points, and they are all valid. However, you may be beaten badly, and really needing help. That's the only thing that could hurt you. Remember, "Maniac" still is in a multiway pot here and he's got the foot on the gas. The field is likely drawing quite live vs you if you are ahead, anyway. SB could be semibluffing some pair/draw hand, but at least he can likely draw at a straight (or he already has it). Calling station is immaterial. "Maniac" either has a smaller pair or KK. You know how I feel about spending a couple of SB's early in the hand to see where I'm at, but this may not be the right time. That said, I'd likely be 4 betting in the heat of battle. All I can tell you is that I wouldn't fold.

[coolhandkuhn]

Lee,
It is actually 2 bets back on Clark, making his odds 11.5 to 1, not 23:1 --- so that variance might catch up with the parallel you sometime down the road if you are only in the pot to spike a queen on the turn. Would that change your call to a fold?

[Lee Jones]

I am getting 23:2, not 23:1. Does that change your opinion?

Totally. I'm done. Sure, maybe you have the best hand. So what - sometimes you lay down the best hand. Things aren't going to get any quieter from here to the showdown. Any A, K, J, T, 7, 9, 8, (maybe even 4 or 3) on the turn completely eliminates your ability to play the hand strongly (even if you are best), you're out of position.

Feh, who needs it? Next hand.

Regards, Lee

[elysium]

hi clark
you know you've got to call the flop. if you don't spike the Q on the turn, then you'll need about 17-1 down to 15-1 and a check to you. you can call with those odds provided that.....wait, you've got a calling station in the CO. dang; clark fold. do not call the 2 bets to you.

you're positioned between the 3 bettor and the maniac. that, combined with the calling station makes this a clear fold on the three straight flop. you will never get the correct odds to spike the Q when factoring in the possibility of a straight. and you will find out about the straight on the show-down, so you'll lose the maximum. fold. territory too rough for you here.

[adios]

Fold? Out of the question.

Raise? Well the MP "maniac" is likely to hit it again if you don't so a raise can't be that bad. On the other hand, a lot of scary cards can come on the turn and now you've put in extra dough when you wish you wouldn't have.

Call? If the "maniac" smooth calls here you might get a clue that he has overcards and isn't that strong. Also if the SB comes out betting on the turn a raise might knock the other two players out if a rag falls. If a scary card comes on the turn you might be able to save some checks. FWIW I think there are better reasons to call than raise although it may very well get capped anyway on the flop. Of course I'd be in on the showdown if nothing scary came. If something does I'll cross that bridge when I come to it.

[rtrombone]

I'm very curious as to the thoughts that were running through your head during this hand. You said that the maniac could have JJ. Would he also play this way with AK? If the maniac would only 5-bet with AA or KK, then at least you learn something by raising. If not, well, I still raise because I'm not folding, it's probably going to get capped anyways, and I hate cold-calling.

What would the lurker cold call 3-bets with from the SB? Sounds like an aggressive game; surely he knows that suited connectors don't play well in such a game (particularly from the SB)? Pocket pairs, on the other hand...

I don't know, I just feel like lurker has something like 88. If he has a set, you can spike a Q. I'm not all that certain you're behind here.

The turn will certainly be tricky, but you have to trust you will be able to make the right decision then.

As for the calling station, who knows? But he'll probably be the one to drag the pot. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[Clarkmeister]

First, I bet specifically to get Maniac to raise me and try to get it narrowed down a bit and then ad lib from there.

What makes this so difficult is that I thought I was certainly either ahead of Lurker or getting ample price to continue. Like most, I discount calling station entirely. Maniac is the one who presents the problem since at the time I put him on KK-JJ with KK being the most likely given his play. For whatever reason, I believed him when he said he didn't want to see any Aces flop. As I mentioned in a post above, he gave me a wide berth usually, so his strength in a multi-way pot, and against me in particular, really had me concerned.

If I wasn't worried about Maniac, I think two things make laying down against "just" the lurker out of the question. First, I didn’t 4-bet preflop, and I think that will make him underestimate the strengh of my hand. Remember, I have a forum image. He may put me on a pair, but perhaps 99 or TT instead of QQ. This does two things. First, it may make him think he has a better hand than me if he has TT or JJ, second, it makes him think he can push me off a slightly better hand with something like 88 or 99, or even a poor preflop call with something like 78s and an outside chance of something like A8s trying to “clean up his Ace outs” by leveraging me out of the pot. I didn’t think his betting indicated a straight or a set, so I thought 2 pair at most, with a good chance of a hand I was beating currently with the always present chance of a total misread by me.

But Maniac still bothered me, so anyways, rightly or wrongly I decided that to play on I would have to totally commit to drastically overplaying the hand from here on out. The problem of course being that there weren’t many turn cards that would allow me to do so.

So I folded. But I didn’t (and really still don’t) like it.

Once I folded, Maniac 4 bet behind me, calling station called, Lurker capped (a scenario many of you saw coming).

Turn was an offsuit King. To my eyes Lurker didn’t like that card, flinching for just a second before betting. Maniac did seem to like it, hitched as if to raise but called, Calling Station finally folded.

River was a 5. Final board 567K5. Lurker checked, Maniac gleefully tossed his chips out forcefully and Lurker folded to a single bet in a 19.5BB pot.

Maniac showed his KK.

And I still don't know what I should have done on the flop. I mean, I'm bridge jumping if Maniac shows JJ or even QQ, right?

[Lee Jones]

So he had KK. Whatever.

It's one thing to call with QQ at the river in a situation like this. But the hand is just getting started, all hell has broken loose, and you have one pair.

And you know - sometimes calling stations have hands! It seems dangerously haughty to say "I wasn't worried about the calling station." They have two cards like everybody else and the dealer is allowed to push them the pot, and sometimes, by God, he does.

It's hard to know where Lurker was, but let's give him a straight draw, maybe with a pair. So even if you were in front, they were drawing heavy against you, and if you could believe their betting, you were drawing slim against them.

What's the big deal about laying this one down?

Regards, Lee

[andyfox]

In the bigger games, sometimes all that action on the flop doesn't mean a helluva lot. Posturing, and then things return to a semblance of normalcy when the bet size doubles.

But in this case there was a 3-bet pre-flop. And it's only 10-20.

And, as you point out, Clarkie has only one pair. And there are two more cards to come which could produce an ace, a king, a nine, an eight, a seven, a six, a five, a four, or a three, some of these scarily ugly, others at least somewhat unwanted. Plus it now costs two bets and one guy has vitually announced he has a big pair and Clarkie has vitually himself announced, by his action, he has an overpair.

Easy to say once you know the other guy had kings, but I'd have laid it down too and I would have felt just as good about it if the guy had jacks.

[ACPlayer]

I think all three choices call/raise/fold have merits here and depends on the reads. Normally a fold but if you have doubts then, In addition to the fold option....

Without knowing the exact proclivities of the players, I would consider either a call or a raise to see what the maniac does (and the call/raise choice depends on how many raises are allowed at the club). If the maniac reraises (you need to give him the chance to raise and not cap the betting yourself on the flop) I would fold on the turn if no Q. If the maniac folds and the SB calls or raises, I would go to the river investing as few additional bets as possible.

The consideration here is whether the SB is monkeying around with a hand like 88 and whether the maniac actually may have AK, QQ, JJ, TT etc. What would the maniac do with these hands (would he automatically go to the river) is another consideration based on player tendencies? Would he fold QQ (a long shot but possible). If he will call down, I would fold early, unless you like acting like a calling station in a 3-way pot.

[daryn]

isn't a cap the same as a 4-bet or is this just in certain casinos? i have never seen a 5 or more bet except for heads up

[Jeffage]

In some casinos (notably those in Vegas, Minnesota), the cap is at 5 bets or a bet and 4 raises. On the East coast and in CA the cap is generally 4 bets.

Jeff

[mike l.]

"First, I didn’t 4-bet preflop,"

hope im not repeating anyone else but given what you have told us about "maniac" (who doesnt sound like anything but a solid aggressive player really) respecting your play and sb and calling guy and all that your decision to not 4 bet preflop makes NO sense to me. if "maniac" makes it 5 bets you can assume youre behind and play accordingly postflop, plus you really want to charge the hell out of calling station and lurker semibluffer. it would have kept you out of the flop confusion that ensued.